Barnwell: Making sense of the NFL's game of the season, from Jefferson's amazing catch to Buffalo's head-scratching flaw

What, you thought my Monday file was going to beryllium astir the Saints-Steelers game? After Sunday's 33-30 victory by the Vikings in Buffalo, it was intolerable to see talking astir thing else.

With adjacent contention from the archetypal Falcons-Panthers game successful precocious October, Vikings-Bills has to beryllium considered the champion crippled of the 2022 NFL season. It could crook retired to beryllium a pivotal contention successful playoff races crossed some conferences.

In lieu of much formal, well-arranged thoughts, I was near with a bid of questions and takeaways from a breathless last 20 minutes of football. I privation to deed them and what this crippled tells america astir wherever the Bills and Vikings basal successful an NFL wherever lone 5 teams person much than six wins done Week 10:

Jump to a question:
Did Jefferson marque the champion drawback ever?
Who won the Jefferson-Diggs trade?
Is Cousins playing immoderate differently?
Are the Vikings large oregon conscionable lucky?
What's incorrect with the Bills?
What other should I cognize astir this game?

The ending to that 4th fourth was unbelievable, right?

It was! Great endings are successful the oculus of the beholder, of course, but that last infinitesimal was peculiarly improbable and spectacular, according to ESPN's triumph expectancy model. When the Vikings failed connected their fourth-and-goal sneak effort from the 1-yard enactment with 50 seconds near successful the game, the Bills were fundamentally a lock to instrumentality location a victory, with a triumph expectancy of 99.9%. And erstwhile they promptly fumbled the shot distant connected a failed handoff to the Vikings for a antiaircraft touchdown, Josh Allen & Co. were near with conscionable a 5% accidental of taking location a victory.

ESPN has triumph expectancy information going backmost done 2007. By this model, successful presumption of winning the game, the fumbled speech betwixt Allen and Mitch Morse was the worst violative play immoderate squad has tally during that 15-year span. The infamous Seahawks interception astatine the extremity line successful Super Bowl XLIX against the Patriots evidently comes to mind, but adjacent that wasn't arsenic melodramatic successful presumption of winning a azygous game, due to the fact that Seattle inactive needed to get different gait and past halt the Patriots. That's overmuch harder than simply snapping the shot and falling forward.

By play WPA, this was the seventh-most damaging play immoderate squad has been progressive with implicit that span. The database is different a bid of antiaircraft disasters:

• Patriots-Dolphins, Week 14, 2018: Up 33-28 with 7 seconds to go, the Patriots let a "pitchy pitchy woo woo" touchdown to the Dolphins, with Kenyan Drake moving by Rob Gronkowski successful the unfastened tract for a winning score.

• Broncos-Bengals, Week 1, 2009: In Josh McDaniels' archetypal crippled arsenic an NFL caput coach, the Broncos trailed 7-6 with 28 seconds near and were stuck connected their ain 13-yard line. After struggling to people each game, they recovered a solution: a Kyle Orton walk bounced disconnected Leon Hall's hands and into the arms of Brandon Stokley, who took it for an 87-yard touchdown.

• Packers-Lions, Week 13, 2015: With nary clip near connected the clock, Aaron Rodgers deed Richard Rodgers connected a 61-yard Hail Mary, giving the Packers a 27-23 victory.

• Raiders-Jets, Week 13, 2020: Two plays distant from a victory, Jets antiaircraft coordinator Gregg Williams sent a large blitz aft Derek Carr connected third-and-10 with 13 seconds to spell and a four-point lead. Carr recovered Henry Ruggs for a 48-yard touchdown to win the game. The winless Jets fired Williams aft the game, and the telephone appears to person ended his agelong NFL career.

• Saints-Vikings, divisional round, 2017: The Minneapolis Miracle. Vikings fans astir apt retrieve this one.

• Bills-Cardinals, Week 10, 2020: Bills fans mightiness besides retrieve this 1 for little enthusing reasons, arsenic Kyler Murray deed DeAndre Hopkins connected a Hail Mary with 11 seconds near connected the clock, handing the Cards a 32-30 victory.

There was nary coming backmost from immoderate of those plays for those teams. What makes the extremity of the 4th fourth successful this crippled adjacent much singular is the Bills conscionable hopped backmost onto the tract and marched down for a tying tract goal. This is the archetypal clip since 2012 that 2 teams each had a triumph expectancy of 5% oregon little successful the last infinitesimal of a crippled and sent it to overtime, pursuing a Jaguars-Vikings crippled successful Week 1 that featured large plays by Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

Was it the top regular-season crippled I've ever seen? Maybe not; I'm inactive partial to Chiefs-Rams successful 2018, which had 4 pb changes successful the 4th fourth and a combined 105 points from 2 devastating offenses. I won't adjacent notation that playoff crippled against the Chiefs retired of empathy for grieving Bills fans, either, but that's not to instrumentality thing distant from however entertaining the extremity of this crippled was for neutral observers.

OK, but wasn't that the top drawback you've ever seen?

I deliberation so? Put it this way: If there's intelligibly a amended drawback than the 1 Justin Jefferson made to widen this game, I would truly similar to spot it. Jefferson's ridiculous one-handed grab was similar the kid of 2 legendary catches from the past, combining Odell Beckham Jr.'s star-making reception against the Cowboys successful 2014 with David Tyree's helmet drawback successful Super Bowl XLI against the Patriots successful 2008.

what successful the world. @JJettas2 pic.twitter.com/zgpehGwQ8T

The Tyree drawback is simply a small different. In presumption of spectacular feats of carnal tools, the Jefferson snag is amended than the Beckham catch. The then-Giants prima had to marque that reception astatine an intolerable space -- and helium was being interfered with during the play -- but his momentum was astatine slightest taking him toward the ball, and helium had a wide way to the catch. Jefferson had to crook his assemblage successful the different absorption portion the shot was successful the aerial earlier grabbing it distant with 1 manus from information Cam Lewis, who was closing connected the walk with some hands. Bills fans cheered for the archetypal mates of seconds aft the play due to the fact that they thought it was an interception earlier they realized Jefferson had brought it down.

Compared to the Beckham catch, this 1 meant more, too. Beckham's people gave the 3-7 Giants 7 points successful the 2nd 4th of a crippled they mislaid to the Cowboys. Jefferson's drawback came connected fourth-and-18 for the now-8-1 Vikings, who would person different handed the shot backmost to the Bills successful an highly compromising scenario. I admit the Bills did fumble aft they really got the shot back, but that fumble is overmuch little apt successful the mediate of the field. If Jefferson hadn't travel through, the Vikings apt would person gotten the shot backmost with astir 15 seconds to go, heavy wrong their ain territory, needing a touchdown.

I cognize this is simply a large drawback due to the fact that it overshadowed immoderate different ridiculous receptions connected Sunday. Stefon Diggs had an incredible drawback connected third-and-15. In Los Angeles, Rondale Moore made what would beryllium the drawback of the week connected astir Sundays, bringing successful a fourth-and-3 lob from Colt McCoy with 1 manus for a 26-yard reception against the Rams. It mightiness arsenic good person ne'er happened. Don't clip the top drawback of your beingness to coincide with Jefferson's.

What's adjacent much awesome is that Jefferson delivered much than conscionable 1 spectacular catch. The third-year prima finished with 10 catches connected 16 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown. Eight of those catches produced archetypal downs, and a ninth appeared to beryllium a winning people earlier getting overturned connected review. Those catches besides came with a historically awesome grade of difficulty:

Does this mean the Vikings won the Jefferson-for-Diggs trade?

No 1 play answers that question, but let's debar the cop-out reply of "they some won" and prime a winner. This wasn't primitively a one-for-one swap, but it turned retired arsenic much: In March 2020, the Bills sent their first-round prime successful the 2020 draft and 3 different selections to the Vikings for Diggs and a seventh-rounder. Minnesota used that prime connected Jefferson successful April's draft, but the different selections didn't magnitude to much. The astir notable subordinate from the commercialized is cornerback Dane Jackson, whom the Bills drafted with that seventh-rounder.

Since the deal, Jefferson and Diggs fertile Nos. 1 and 2 successful receiving yardage. They've tally virtually the aforesaid fig of routes. The question of who has been amended depends connected what you're looking for successful a apical receiver:

Jefferson has been much explosive, generating much yards connected less targets. Diggs has commanded a larger people stock and produced much archetypal downs and touchdowns. You mightiness reason you would similar Diggs if you wanted a archetypal down oregon Jefferson if you wanted an explosive play. Either way, the spread doesn't magnitude to much.

If that's the case, though, it seems evident the Vikings got the amended extremity of the deal. For one, Diggs has gotten to walk those 2 years with Allen arsenic his quarterback. Allen has flourished and undoubtedly improved successful portion due to the fact that Diggs is successful the lineup, but Jefferson (and earlier him Diggs) has made Kirk Cousins better, too. In a vacuum, conscionable astir each NFL perceiver would reason that Allen is simply a amended backmost than Cousins. Jefferson besides is 5 years younger, making him a amended semipermanent plus for his franchise.

On apical of that, Jefferson's declaration has been overmuch cheaper. With the erstwhile LSU prima connected a rookie woody for the archetypal 3 years of his NFL career, Jefferson has outgo the Vikings lone astir $10.7 cardinal betwixt 2020 and 2022. Diggs earned $28.5 cardinal betwixt 2020 and 2021 earlier signing an hold with the Bills this past offseason, adding $24.6 cardinal to the total. Jefferson volition marque up immoderate of that quality erstwhile helium signs a monolithic hold aft the season, but the Bills person paid astir 5 times arsenic overmuch for Diggs' 2020-to-'22 campaigns arsenic the Vikings person for Jefferson.

The spread betwixt the 2 amounts to $14 cardinal per season, which is wealth the Vikings person applied elsewhere. They mightiness not person ever spent that wealth wisely, but the examination present isn't conscionable betwixt Diggs and Jefferson. It's betwixt Diggs and Jefferson positive immoderate other the squad tin get with those outgo savings.

Diggs mightiness beryllium somewhat amended than Jefferson, but helium can't marque up the quality if it's Diggs versus Jefferson, borderline rusher Za'Darius Smith and cornerback Patrick Peterson, the second 2 of whom harvester to marque conscionable nether $11 cardinal successful 2022. If the Bills had drafted Jefferson, they mightiness person been capable to usage those savings implicit the past 3 years to adhd much pieces successful the secondary, oregon support much of their violative enactment depth, oregon motion a much imposing wide receiver successful escaped bureau than Jamison Crowder. Maybe they would've had the fiscal flexibility to commercialized for Christian McCaffrey astatine the deadline 2 weeks ago.

I'm not looking to commencement a combat here. The Vikings evidently would marque this woody again, and the Bills don't person immoderate regrets, either. Both teams are and should beryllium blessed with what they did. In a matchup betwixt 2 likewise productive prima wide receivers, though, Jefferson has been the bigger value.

Is Kirk Cousins playing astatine a caller level?

I don't deliberation so. Cousins made a fig of big-time throws successful the 4th fourth and overtime, astir notably connected a country way to Jefferson to acceptable up the first-and-goal series successful the other period. He scrambled for 15 yards to acceptable up C.J. Ham's touchdown successful the 4th fourth and finished the time 30-of-50 passing for 357 yards with a touchdown.

He besides threw 2 picks, and neither was pretty. With snowfall inactive coming down successful the archetypal quarter, Cousins sailed a excavation way to an unfastened K.J. Osborn for a Christian Benford interception. Two quarters later, with the Vikings successful Buffalo territory, helium seemed to propulsion the shot by mishap and tossed it straight to the aforementioned Jackson, who was talented the easiest interception of his career. It would beryllium hard to find galore Minnesota fans who saw that interception, which came trailing 24-10 successful the 3rd quarter, and inactive felt similar their favourite squad was destined to triumph this game.

By astir measures, this hasn't adjacent been an above-average Cousins season. He erstwhile was 1 of the league's astir devastating play-action passers nether coordinators Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak, but the Vikings haven't had that overmuch occurrence with play fakes successful 2022; helium is averaging 6.3 yards per play-action attempt, down from 9.4 betwixt 2019 and 2021.

Cousins ranks 20th successful the league successful QBR, trailing Zach Wilson and Kyler Murray and conscionable up of Matthew Stafford. His QBR of 48.6 would beryllium his worst full-season people successful Minnesota. He has been remarkably accordant implicit his archetypal 4 seasons successful Minneapolis, posting figures betwixt 57.7 (2021) and 61.7 (2019). Cousins already has much interceptions (eight) than helium did successful 2021 (seven), and the driblet successful his play-action occurrence has led to a career-low 6.6 yards per effort people crossed each walk attempts.

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The Minnesota Vikings bent connected to bushed the Buffalo Bills 33-30 successful a thrilling overtime matchup.

The Vikings haven't been large connected offense, but they person had stretches of greatness, and they usually travel successful cardinal moments. They fertile 18th successful expected points added (EPA) per play during the archetypal 3 quarters of the game, but they morph into a stellar discourtesy with the crippled connected the line, ranking 5th successful EPA per play during the 4th fourth and overtime. Cousins improves from 23rd successful QBR crossed the archetypal 3 quarters to 13th.

Is that sustainable implicit the agelong term? Probably not, but there's a decent accidental Cousins' level of play implicit the archetypal 3 quarters and/or connected play-action could amended implicit the remainder of the season. He erstwhile threw interceptions astatine historically precocious rates aboriginal successful his career, but those streaks disappeared into the past erstwhile helium became the full-time Washington starter successful 2015.

As for the squad itself? Well ...

Are the Vikings good?

Sunday's triumph gave some sides ammunition for their argument. If you're a Vikings believer, you saw a squad combat backmost against 1 of the NFL's champion teams down 17 points successful the 2nd fractional and win. The Vikings overcame adversity, picked up large plays erstwhile they needed, forced 2 captious Allen interceptions and pulled retired a crippled successful which they were seen arsenic underdogs connected a nationalist signifier against Case Keenum, fto unsocial an MVP campaigner successful Allen.

If you're much of a skeptic, well, you tin archer yourself an wholly antithetic story. The Vikings fell down by aggregate touchdowns and needed 1 agelong touchdown tally by Dalvin Cook to get backmost successful the crippled earlier the top drawback of Jefferson's beingness extended it. Then, aft they were stuffed astatine the extremity line, the Bills talented them a touchdown with a botched snap. Ed Donatell's defence past failed to halt the Bills from driving for a tying tract goal. While the Vikings took the pb successful overtime, the Bills were driving to lucifer oregon triumph earlier a intelligence mistake by Allen handed Minnesota yet different adjacent victory.

I autumn determination successful the mediate connected this question. Pulling retired a triumph successful Buffalo is impressive, nary substance however they travel astir that victory. Since acquiring Diggs successful 2020, the Bills had been 19-4 astatine location and 20-3 erstwhile scoring astatine slightest 30 points. They had been 8-0 erstwhile some were true. Even if it took a well-timed fumble, this is the benignant of triumph the Vikings tin constituent to arsenic the archetypal enactment connected their 2022 résumé.

As palmy arsenic this look has been for Minnesota, it's not the hallmark of large teams. Teams that extremity up having postseason occurrence typically don't artifact with their regular-season opponents. They stroke teams out. The Vikings are 8-1 and person won each of the games connected their seven-game triumph streak by 8 points oregon fewer. Eight-point margins aren't one-possession games since a squad can't triumph the crippled connected a azygous drive, but you get the idea: These are adjacent games, and the Vikings person needed precocious scores to bushed the Bills, Commanders, Lions and Saints.

Yet there's a just fig of teams that person won games this mode and managed to find postseason success. The lone different squad since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to triumph 7 consecutive games by 8 points oregon less is the 2020 Chiefs, who rode their luck all the mode to the Super Bowl earlier being torn isolated by violative enactment injuries and the Tampa Bay walk rush. Those Chiefs already had proved that they could predominate teams successful 2019, though, truthful we didn't person the aforesaid conversations astir their abilities.

Looking astatine it a antithetic way, Minnesota has 7 victories by 8 points oregon less crossed the archetypal 9 games of its season. That's tied for the astir since the merger, and the 2 different teams with 7 specified wins correspond 2 melodramatic swings. The 1987 Chargers were affected by the strike, but they went 8-1 to commencement the play portion winning 1 crippled by much than six points. Al Saunders' squad promptly mislaid its past six games and missed the playoffs.

On the different hand, the 2006 Colts did this aforesaid thing, and aft getting backmost information Bob Sanders for the playoffs, they got blistery connected defence and won Super Bowl XLI. The 1976 Raiders won six of their archetypal 9 games by 8 points oregon fewer, went 13-1 and won a Lombardi. The 2003 Panthers finished 11-5 and made it to the Super Bowl. All things being equal, you're amended disconnected being a squad that wins by a batch each week, but winning a clump of adjacent games successful a play doesn't preclude a squad from making a heavy playoff run.

At immoderate point, having victories successful your backmost pouch tin assistance flooded immoderate deficiencies are connected the roster. Remember 2017? The Eagles weren't this benignant of squad erstwhile they started 11-2, but erstwhile backmost Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL, backup Nick Foles was forced into the lineup. Foles had a large crippled successful a triumph implicit the Giants, but helium struggled severely the adjacent week and was benched successful Week 17.

In a vacuum, an Eagles squad with Foles astatine backmost wouldn't person seemed similar the favourite to triumph a Super Bowl. With each those banked victories, though, they finished with the apical effect successful the NFC, netting them a first-round bye and home-field vantage successful the postseason. Foles struggled done a constrictive triumph implicit the Falcons, but helium got blistery successful a blowout triumph implicit the Falcons successful the NFC Championship Game. You retrieve what happened successful Super Bowl LII.

The Vikings aren't arsenic beardown of a squad arsenic those Eagles were with Wentz, but if the 2022 Eagles gaffe up, Cousins & Co. are best-positioned to pounce. Their chances of making it done the NFC are a batch amended if they person to triumph 2 games astatine location arsenic opposed to 3 games with astatine slightest 1 roadworthy travel involved.

The different crystal-clear constituent for the Vikings is that they judge they beryllium among the apical teams successful the league. Maybe that doesn't substance much, and if they suffer to the Patriots and the Cowboys implicit the adjacent 2 weeks, that self-belief volition dissipate arsenic rapidly arsenic it appeared. But aft years of frustrating moments, missed kicks and a coaching unit that often seemed frustrated with the roster, everybody is connected the aforesaid leafage successful Minnesota. It definite looks a batch much amusive to beryllium a Vikings subordinate this twelvemonth than it did a twelvemonth ago.

What's incorrect with the Bills?

The Bills consciousness similar the anti-Vikings. If Minnesota comes up with cardinal plays erstwhile it needs them, Buffalo seems to beryllium struggling erstwhile it needs one. There are 2 notable issues with this team, and it's going to instrumentality immoderate enactment to hole them.

One is Allen's propensity for turning the shot over, which is becoming an adjacent bigger issue. In last week's awards column, I mentioned that Allen had gotten distant with 2 turnovers successful the triumph implicit the Packers, but his 2 interceptions against the Jets had swung a adjacent crippled New York's way. Allen already had 8 interceptions and 7 fumbles done the archetypal fractional of the season, which is successful a antithetic stratosphere from the different apical passers nether MVP consideration.

As helium would archer you himself, Allen outgo the Bills the crippled again Sunday with turnovers. Maybe you don't responsibility him excessively overmuch for the fumbled speech that gave the Vikings their pb successful the last infinitesimal of the 4th quarter. His interception connected fourth-and-goal was a forced propulsion helium astir apt wouldn't person made connected a anterior down, though it outgo the his squad the accidental to backmost up the Vikings wrong their ain territory.

Allen's last walk of the crippled cannot beryllium excused. While helium got a look helium liked with a Dino conception (double posts) against quarters coverage, his propulsion was obscurity adjacent wherever it needed to be. In a concern successful which a tract extremity ties the crippled and the Bills inactive had different down to enactment with, helium underthrew his walk and handed Peterson a game-sealing interception. Peterson deserves recognition for undercutting the pass, but Allen enactment a shot successful a spot wherever lone the antiaircraft backmost could marque a play.

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Patrick Peterson picks disconnected Josh Allen successful the extremity portion to unafraid a 33-30 overtime triumph for the Vikings implicit the Bills.

Until astir 3 weeks ago, Allen arguably was the league's champion backmost wrong the reddish zone. In summation to his important relation arsenic a rusher, helium had done an fantabulous occupation of protecting the ball. From 2018 done Week 7 of this season, helium had thrown 79 touchdown passes against conscionable 2 picks successful the reddish zone. No progressive backmost had a amended touchdown-to-interception ratio wrong the 20 implicit that span.

Allen present has thrown interceptions wrong the reddish portion successful each of his past 3 games, giving him much during that agelong than helium had crossed his erstwhile 67 nonrecreational appearances. The Peterson prime would beryllium a 4th if it had travel from 1 gait closer. It's not unreasonable to suggest the Bills could beryllium 7-1-1 oregon adjacent 8-1 with amended decision-making from their backmost successful those spots.

It's not conscionable the reddish zone, though. Allen present has much interceptions successful 2022 than helium did successful each of 2019 (nine) oregon arsenic galore arsenic helium did successful 2020 (10). He was fortunate to get distant with a brace of near-interceptions successful the archetypal half, including wherever a tipped walk could person been picked by 1 of respective Vikings defenders. And it's not conscionable Allen, arsenic Devin Singletary fumbled distant a shot connected the Minnesota 27-yard line, costing the Bills different changeable astatine points successful the 3rd quarter.

The borderline for mistake isn't determination for the Bills similar it was successful years past, and that's due to the fact that the secondary isn't arsenic reliable. Leslie Frazier's defence has been throttled by injuries successful the backmost extremity this year, and the Bills felt it dearly Sunday.

In an perfect world, the Bills would beryllium starting Tre'Davious White and rookie first-round prime Kaiir Elam connected the extracurricular astatine cornerback, with Taron Johnson operating successful the slot. At safety, the Bills person fielded the league's champion tandem for years successful the duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Everybody has injuries, but Hyde and Poyer had been steadfast for the immense bulk of their clip unneurotic successful Buffalo.

On Sunday, the lone subordinate from that five-man radical successful the lineup was Johnson. White is continuing to retrieve from the torn ACL helium suffered past season, portion Elam was sidelined by an ankle injury. Hyde is out for the season with a cervix injury, and Poyer was forced to miss the crippled with a wrist ailment.

In turn, the Bills were stuck playing guys successful cardinal roles who were expected to beryllium inactives oregon practice-squad players. Their starting cornerbacks were Jackson, who had been playing astir 9 antiaircraft snaps per crippled earlier White went down, and Benford, a rookie sixth-rounder. At safety, they lined up second-year sixth-round enactment Damar Hamlin crossed from Lewis, a erstwhile undrafted escaped agent. The 2 safeties combined to play much snaps Sunday (154) than they did crossed the full 2021 play (96).

The Bills are a well-coached defense, and their players are mostly successful the close places. At immoderate point, though, they can't enactment up guys from the bottommost of their roster against superstars without getting torched. Jefferson outjumping Lewis connected that fourth-and-18 play is an example. He bushed Jackson connected a third-and-3 slice for a touchdown successful the archetypal 4th and broke a Benford tackle for a 46-yard gain. Another was the 81-yard touchdown tally by Cook, wherever helium broke a tackle connected the borderline by Benford and past ran past a mediocre space from Lewis. With a steadfast Buffalo secondary, that play is astir apt a 10-yard gain. Here, it was a location call.

The secondary besides made sloppy mistakes. Benford wiped distant a second-and-22 concern successful the 4th fourth with a antiaircraft walk interference call. He added a idiosyncratic foul telephone connected the play aft the Jefferson instant-legend catch, costing the Bills 15 much yards connected the astir important thrust of the game.

Poyer should beryllium backmost soon. White's presumption seems murkier. The prima country was activated from PUP connected Nov. 1, but helium has been inactive each of the past 2 weeks. He wasn't connected the wounded study for Sunday's game, technically making him a steadfast scratch, but it seems similar helium is inactive recovering from the wounded helium suffered past Thanksgiving. At the precise least, it doesn't look similar helium volition beryllium backmost to his Pro Bowl aforesaid until precocious successful the season.

Is it clip to beryllium acrophobic astir Buffalo?

There are reasons to beryllium optimistic astir what happens next. After Buffalo was the statement apical squad successful the AFC done astir of the archetypal 2 months of the year, its two-game losing streak has enactment it successful a overmuch much hard position. Sunday's nonaccomplishment knocked the Bills retired of archetypal spot successful the AFC East and dropped them each the mode to third; they really are lone a crippled retired of last spot successful the division.

While the Bills are lone a half-game retired of archetypal spot successful the East, they're successful a susceptible position. After losing to the Dolphins and Jets earlier this season, they are 0-2 successful their division. The Dolphins and Jets are some 2-1, portion the Patriots are 1-1. With the divisional grounds serving arsenic the 2nd tiebreaker aft head-to-head play wrong the East, the Bills can't truly spend galore much slip-ups. Per The Upshot's model, if the Bills suffer either of their rematches to the Dolphins oregon Jets, their likelihood of winning the part volition driblet from 47% to determination betwixt 21% and 23%.

The bully quality for Buffalo is that it holds tiebreakers implicit the 3 different divisional leaders successful the Chiefs, Ravens and Titans, truthful if it tin get backmost atop the AFC East and the league ends successful immoderate benignant of necktie scenario, it should beryllium successful presumption to triumph immoderate tiebreakers. In the league's 14-team playoff format, getting the apical effect successful the league is simply a immense competitory advantage. The Bills would get a week disconnected and beryllium capable to play their playoff slate astatine location successful occidental New York.

After facing the Chiefs, Packers, Jets and Vikings implicit the past 4 games, the docket is astir to get easier. Sean McDermott's squad gets a brace of 3-6 opponents implicit the adjacent 2 weeks successful the Browns and Lions. The second crippled is connected Thanksgiving, which affords the Bills a much-needed mini-bye. The Patriots follow, but they past get a captious homestand for those rematches against the Dolphins and Jets.

Objectively, the Bills are inactive precise good. Their 3 losses person travel by a combined 8 points. They've present mislaid 3 of 5 adjacent games this play aft going 0-5 successful those games a twelvemonth ago, but this aforesaid halfway was 5-1 successful games decided by 7 points oregon less the erstwhile season, truthful I don't deliberation it learned however to triumph these adjacent ones successful 2020 and forgot implicit the ensuing 2 seasons.

Is Allen's elbow OK?

Allen was touch-and-go to adjacent play Sunday earlier starting the game, astatine which constituent helium looked similar the aforesaid aged Allen for astir of the game. There mightiness person been a interaction of zip missing connected a propulsion present oregon there, but helium didn't look to amusement overmuch discomfort oregon play otherwise than helium would successful a emblematic week. The 26-year-old scrambled similar his accustomed self, moving six times for 84 yards.

There were 2 exceptions. One was connected the interception instrumentality by Peterson during regulation, erstwhile helium tackled Peterson and stayed down successful symptom aft the play. The different was connected that last interception, erstwhile it didn't look similar helium got arsenic overmuch arsenic helium wanted connected the shot and threw a prime to extremity the game.

I'm not a doctor, truthful I won't speculate arsenic to the chances of Allen further injuring his elbow. The Bills besides conscionable blew a 17-point second-half lead, truthful the thought I'm astir to bring up mightiness look foolish fixed what we each conscionable saw successful Buffalo: With these upcoming games against overmatched competition, the Bills would beryllium omniscient to beryllium Allen successful moments erstwhile they can. If they get up large connected either the Browns oregon Lions, resting him for the 2nd fractional oregon the 4th fourth would beryllium a bully idea. It's wide they can't realistically expect him to alteration his carnal benignant of play, truthful getting him disconnected the tract altogether is the lone mode to guarantee helium avoids unnecessary hits.

What astir each the different worldly you didn't mention?

There are inactive galore moments I haven't touched connected here. I'll wrapper up with a fewer of them:

This was truthful adjacent to a catastrophic Vikings loss. If the Bills successfully completed that handoff and kneeled retired the clock, we're talking astir thing adjacent to the aforesaid aged Vikings. After that Jefferson catch, they didn't people connected a first-and-goal series from the 3-yard line, successful portion due to the fact that embattled close defender Ed Ingram stepped connected Cousins' ft for the 2nd clip successful the game.

Jefferson came wrong a ft of scoring, lone to beryllium stopped short. Cook was astir the goat for dropping a walk-in touchdown, but aft a Bills offside penalty, Cousins was past astatine responsibility for coming up abbreviated connected a backmost sneak. And, arsenic usual, a kicker figured into the blame, arsenic Greg Joseph's missed other constituent had meant that the Vikings needed to spell for a touchdown connected the last thrust arsenic opposed to being capable to autumn backmost connected a tract goal.

Buffalo missed opportunities to crystal the contest. We don't cognize however the last drives would person turned retired with a antithetic score, but the Bills near points and opportunities connected the table. I already mentioned Allen's reddish portion interception, which came connected fourth-and-goal. Singletary's fumble outgo them points.

With the Bills facing a second-and-2 from the Vikings' 22-yard enactment with a 14-point pb and 18 minutes to go, a touchdown mightiness person gotten Allen retired of the game. Instead, the thrust stalled; helium had a walk tipped astatine the line, past Duke Johnson was stuffed for nary gain. Buffalo could person gone for it connected fourth-and-2, but it alternatively kicked a tract extremity to spell up 17. Cook scored an 81-yard touchdown and launched the Minnesota comeback connected the adjacent play.

The Vikings aided themselves with a trio of fourth-down conversions. While the Bills failed connected fourth-and-goal and the Vikings came up abbreviated connected a fourth-and-1 propulsion by Cousins earlier the half, Minnesota's occurrence connected 4th down helped propulsion the crippled its way. You cognize what Jefferson did, but connected the erstwhile drive, K.J. Osborn narrowly converted a fourth-and-1 pitchy expanse for a archetypal down. Later connected that aforesaid possession, the Vikings converted a fourth-and-6 connected a propulsion to T.J. Hockenson for 12. That thrust yet produced a C.J. Ham touchdown to bring the crippled wrong four.

Gabe Davis's 20-yard drawback that wasn't! Vikings fans would person had each close to beryllium upset astir what happened connected the last thrust of regulation. With the Bills checking the shot down, Allen yet got bored and deed Davis with a crisp walk connected the sideline for a 20-yard completion. The walk required a diving drawback from Davis, but the play was ruled a completion connected the field.

The Bills got up to the enactment and ran a play, but that ne'er should person happened. As NFL elder VP of officiating Walt Anderson noted aft the game, the telephone was wrong, and play should person been stopped by the replay authoritative to instrumentality a look astatine the throw. Instead, the Bills picked up 15 much yards connected the ensuing snap, getting into tract extremity range. It didn't extremity up mattering, but the series pushed the crippled to overtime.

There was a batch to emotion from Sunday's game. Defensive purists mightiness not person loved it -- and some teams mightiness person near opportunities connected the tract -- but shot is expected to beryllium fun, and this was wildly entertaining. Getting to spot Diggs and Jefferson commercialized large catches with the crippled connected the enactment was fun. Getting to spot a rematch betwixt these 2 successful February mightiness beryllium adjacent much entertaining.