Betting on the NBA: Why Knicks and Nets are headed in opposite directions

Entering the season, the Nets were considered a shoe-in to marque the playoffs. The were -2000 to marque the playoffs astatine Draft Kings and +1000 to miss the playoffs. The Knicks connected the different manus were +180 to marque the playoffs and -225 to miss the playoffs.

Times person started changing, but I deliberation there's inactive worth to beryllium had for some teams.

As of today, the Knicks are +165 to marque the playoffs and -205 to miss astatine Caesars Sportsbook, portion I recovered the Nets astatine -370 to marque the playoffs and +280 to miss.

Here are immoderate cardinal facts:

• The Knicks, astatine 5-5, are presently tied for the 6th-best grounds successful the Eastern Conference
• The Nets, astatine 4-7, are presently tied for the 11th-best grounds successful the Eastern Conference
• Both the Nets (6th) and the Knicks (10th) are among the top-10 successful the East astatine present, according to ESPN BPI

The Nets consciousness similar a squad connected the brink of perchance drastic measures. We are successful the 4th play of the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving epoch and 3rd since Durant returned from his torn Achilles tendon. While galore predicted championship-level, if not dynasty-level success, the Nets person gone lone 7-13 successful the playoffs with a azygous bid triumph and 2 expanse losses. This offseason, some Durant and Irving reportedly requested to beryllium traded. Ben Simmons, the All Star astatine the halfway of the commercialized bundle they received for James Harden, didn't play astatine each past play and was a large unknown. Over 3 weeks into the season, the Nets person already fired caput manager Steve Nash and Simmons has missed 4 of 11 games with a genu contented and has averaged lone 5.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 6.6 APG, each of which are connected gait to beryllium career-lows. And, of course, Irving is successful the midst of an indefinite suspension that has formed a unreality implicit the full enactment and brings into question his aboriginal with the team.

There person been rumors that the Nets program to bring successful an established manager with title acquisition similar Ime Udoka to effort to support their rubric aspirations. Of course, Udoka would travel with his ain baggage, which contributes to the wide uncertainty astir the absorption of the franchise. There is an expanding rumble that it whitethorn beryllium clip for the squad to chopped their losses, springiness Durant and Irving what they asked for this summer, and commercialized them distant to initiate a rebuild. That would beryllium a shocking result for those that were definite this squad would triumph rings, but it could beryllium that capable is enough.

I'm not going to prognosticate what the Nets volition determine astir their future... information can't assistance maine with that. But, they were a play-in squad past play and are disconnected to a dilatory commencement this season, with their 3 enigmatic superstars connected the tribunal unneurotic for the bulk of the games truthful far. Even if they don't marque trades, they are acold from a warrant to marque the playoffs. And, if the squad brass does determine to stroke it up, which BPI conscionable can't relationship for, they are astir guaranteed NOT to marque the playoffs. So, to me, the futures play present is the Nets to NOT marque the playoffs astatine +280. That pays retired astatine astir 3 to one, and I'd accidental there's a greater than 1 successful 3 accidental that the Nets are connected the extracurricular looking successful erstwhile the postseason starts.

As for the Knicks, the aboriginal returns connected their large offseason acquisition of Jalen Brunson person been positive. As we predicted, Brunson has averaged 19.7 PPG and 7.3 APG truthful acold this season. He's creating squad discourtesy portion taking attraction of the shot with lone 1.7 TO/G. In the existent ESPN Real Plus Minus stats, which rotation retired aboriginal this week, Brunson has the highest RPM connected the squad and is 32nd successful the NBA overall. Meanwhile, erstwhile All Star Julius Randle has bounced backmost from past season's shooting debacle that resulted successful a seven-year debased successful True Shooting Percentage (50.9 TS%) to a 57.2 TS% people that would correspond his highest arsenic a Knick. RJ Barrett has continued past season's scoring breakout, but besides astatine a higher scoring efficiency. The squad has been competitory with affirmative vibes to commencement the season, contempt a pugnacious aboriginal schedule, with each of their losses against championship-caliber teams and coagulated roadworthy wins implicit the 76ers and Timberwolves. They are getting contributions from young players that are inactive improving, and they're enjoying the instrumentality of seasoned Derrick Rose aft helium missed astir of past season. I, personally, person them among my top-8 teams successful the Eastern Conference. So, getting them astatine positive wealth to marque the postseason is simply a bully bet, successful my book.

Now, let's instrumentality an aboriginal look astatine however the NBA Championship and Awards races look astatine this constituent successful the season.

NBA Championship Winner

Favorite: Milwaukee Bucks (+500)

Value Play: Cleveland Cavaliers (+1500)

I had the Bucks arsenic my preseason favourite to triumph the championship, and their 9-1 commencement portion inactive missing All Star Khris Middleton lone supports that stance. That said... the Cavaliers are a occupation this season! I expected them to be, and the aboriginal results are adjacent amended than expectation. They beryllium astatine 8-2, the 2nd champion grounds successful the NBA, with a +10.7 scoring borderline differential that leads the league. The Cavs person 3 young All Stars and a Rookie-of-the-year runner up successful their starting lineup, with beardown extent crossed the board. Despite their youth, they person playoffs acquisition among their cardinal guys with caller prima Donovan Mitchell already having 39 postseason games connected his resume and sixth antheral Kevin Love having won a championship. According to BPI, the Cavaliers presently beryllium arsenic the second-best squad successful the NBA. So, getting them astatine +1500, tied with the Nets for the sixth-longest odds, is bully value.

Most Valuable Player Leader

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+225)

In the hunt

Luka Doncic (+290)
Jayson Tatum (+600)

Longshots

Joel Embiid (+1800)
Donovan Mitchell (+2200)
Nikola Jokic (+2800)
Devin Booker (+4000)

Extreme agelong shot

LeBron James +10,000.

Giannis is the champion subordinate successful the world. I was arguing for this years ago, but it's present go a statement opinion. Playing astatine the level that helium is, if the Bucks enactment astatine oregon adjacent the apical grounds successful the NBA, this contention is Giannis' to lose. Doncic and Tatum are besides disconnected to outstanding starts connected palmy teams, and enactment successful the mix. Jokic and Embiid person finished 1-2 successful the MVP ballot successful each of the past 2 seasons, and it's inactive aboriginal capable for things to crook around, truthful getting them astatine specified agelong likelihood could beryllium bully value. Mitchell and Booker some presently task to beryllium the champion subordinate connected teams that could extremity with the champion records successful their conferences, which is simply a illustration for a imaginable MVP finalist. As for LeBron, if helium remains steadfast helium volition go the NBA all-time starring scorer this play to overmuch fanfare. The Lakers are universally considered a spot of a dumpster fire, but they've softly played amended since moving Russell Westbrook to the sixth man...and there's inactive each likelihood they could marque a buyer's commercialized if the squad shows immoderate signs of life. It looks improbable now, but if the Lakers amended to adjacent a marginal playoffs team, LeBron could get immoderate MVP hype. Long shot? Yes. But, astatine 100 to 1, I'm astatine slightest keeping it connected my radar.

Rookie of the Year Leader

Paolo Banchero (-950)

In the hunt

Bennedict Mathurin (+800)

Longer shot

Keegan Murray (+2500), Jaden Ivey (+2200)

Barring injury, this contention presently looks similar a landslide. Banchero is disconnected to 1 of the amended starts we've seen for a rookie successful a agelong time, with an all-around benignant that produces fantabulous phantasy numbers portion besides impacting his team's quality to win. In the Real Plus Minus stat that we'll beryllium rolling retired this week, Banchero is by-far the astir impactful rookie truthful acold with the 50th-best RPM successful the NBA. Mathurin is second, good backmost with the 117th-highest RPM. Ivey is 178th, and Murray is 212th.

Defensive Player of the Year Leader

Giannis Antetokounpo (+300)

In the hunt

Rudy Gobert (+500)
Bam Adebayo (+700)

Longer shots

OG Anunoby (+2500)
Clint Capela (+30,000)

This is simply a wide-open contention due to the fact that determination aren't immoderate intelligibly ascendant antiaircraft campaigns truthful far. The existent leaders travel from among the accustomed candidates, with some Giannis (once) and Gobert (three times) having won the grant before. Adebayo is simply a young defender with a sterling estimation that could beryllium a superior campaigner if the Heat defence picks things up. But I'd wage peculiar attraction to Anunoby arsenic a longshot and Capela arsenic a waaaaay longshot. According to the RPM stats we're rolling retired this week, Anunoby and Capela fertile 1-2 successful Defensive RPM. The Raptors are a coagulated antiaircraft unit, and they're besides a competitory team. If they replicate past season's occurrence and situation for 50 wins, with a beardown defense, Anunoby could sneak into the DPoY conversation. The Hawks aren't a beardown defense, and Capela is truthful acold down the likelihood database that helium mightiness arsenic good not beryllium connected there. With that said, Capela is presently 9th successful the NBA successful blocks per game, 13th successful rebounds per game, and the Hawks are connected gait to beryllium a 50-win squad and imaginable part winner. If Capela stays astatine the apical of the DRPM database and immoderate voters drawback upwind of it...I mean, he's a longshot, but astatine 300 to 1, he's worthy a look.

Sixth Man of the Year Leader

Russell Westbrook (+160)

In the hunt

Jordan Poole (+275)
Christian Wood (+650)

Longer shot

Malcolm Brogdon (+2000)
Bobby Portis (+2000)
Collin Sexton (+2500)
Kevin Love (+4000)

Westbrook has been beardown since moving to his sixth antheral role, averaging astir 19 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds successful those 5 games. But, the aboriginal is uncertain capable for the Lakers that I can't foretell for definite that Westbrook volition enactment successful the relation each season. Jordan Poole is astir apt the safer stake arsenic favorite, portion Wood isn't accordant capable to enactment with them. Among the longshots, I've already written astir however overmuch I deliberation Brogdon contributes to a Celtics squad with rubric aspirations. Portis is simply a cardinal fig connected the squad with the champion grounds successful the league. Sexton is contributing to the shocking emergence of the Jazz (by the way, the Jazz are positive wealth to marque the playoffs astatine +175, adjacent though they presently person the champion grounds successful the Western Conference and amusement nary signs of slowing down), and has large scoring upside (he averaged 24.3 PPG conscionable 2 seasons ago) that could drawback voter's eyes. And, I wanted to outcry retired Kevin Love, who's already had immoderate beardown games for the Cavs disconnected the bench, and the Cavs, arsenic I said above, are a problem!

Most Improved Player Leaders

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+350)
Tyrese Maxey (+350)

In the hunt

Lauri Markkanen (+600)
Tyrese Haliburton (+900)
Desmond Bane (+1000)

Longshots

Bol Bol (+4000)
Alperen Sengun (+5000)
Jalen Brunson (+6000)

Gilgeous-Alexander is putting up immoderate earnestly absurd numbers truthful acold this season, and Tyrese Maxey is glowing up with the accidental for much successful the adjacent period with James Harden out. I've been touting Markkanen, Bane and Sengun since earlier the play began. I've been blessed to spot Bol Bol get a morganatic accidental to play successful Orlando this season, and he's lived up to the erstwhile mega draught hype helium got successful assemblage earlier injuries slowed his progress. But, I similar Brunson arsenic the longshot here. As mentioned above, Brunson could beryllium looking astatine a 20 and 8ish season, helping pb the Knicks backmost to the postseason, successful 1 of the much large (and long-suffering) markets successful the NBA. If the Knicks attack 50 wins, with nary different end-of-the-season awards successful reach, Brunson for MIP could summation immoderate traction.