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ESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts
Week 10 of the NFL play gets started Thursday nighttime with an NFC South matchup betwixt the 4-5 Atlanta Falcons (-3, 42.5) and the 2-7 Carolina Panthers. What tin expect from a betting standpoint for Thursday night's game?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz provide their apical plays for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.
The Falcons person been 1 of the astonishing stories of the season, presently holding a stock of archetypal spot successful the NFC South astatine 4-5. They are a 3-point roadworthy favourite successful Carolina implicit the 2-7 Panthers. Who bash you similar successful this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: Carolina +3. How are the Falcons laying 3 points connected the roadworthy successful this matchup? The look-ahead enactment for this showdown was Atlanta -1, which was released conscionable earlier the Panthers mislaid to the Bengals and the Falcons fell to the Chargers. So wherefore the 2-point accommodation to the cardinal fig of 3? Additionally, erstwhile these 2 met conscionable 2 weeks agone successful Atlanta, the Falcons were laying 4.5. So -4.5 astatine location and -3 connected the road? That's conscionable excessively large a number, particularly erstwhile you see the information that successful that aforementioned matchup 2 weeks ago, Carolina outgained Atlanta by 72 full yards successful a 3-point overtime loss.
Marks: Love the Falcons successful this spot. Atlanta runs the shot truly good and volition tally each implicit a Carolina unreserved defence that conscionable got destroyed by Joe Mixon and the Bengals. The Panthers defence was connected the tract for 40 minutes and now, connected a abbreviated enactment week successful rainfall and 25 mph winds, volition person to halt Marcus Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier. Carolina has yet to people a TD successful the archetypal 4th and has lone 3 TDs successful 50 violative drives successful the archetypal fractional of games this season. I'll laic the -3 with the Dirty Birds, I'll besides play them (-1) successful the archetypal quarter, (-1.5) successful the archetypal half and over 23.5 squad full points.
Dolan: I would play the Falcons squad full implicit 23.5 points. The Falcons are averaging 24 points per game, portion the Panthers defence is allowing 25 PPG to opponents. These teams met connected October 30th and the Falcons enactment up 37 points successful an overtime win. Since then, the Panthers defence ranks 28th against the run, bottommost 10 against the walk and 27th successful full yards allowed per game. The Falcons discourtesy tin enactment up points connected a bushed Carolina defense.
Schatz: I'm going with the Falcons -3 here, adjacent connected the road. These teams are astir equivalent connected defense, wherever the Panthers fertile 28th successful DVOA and the Falcons are 29th. But there's a immense spread connected offense, wherever the Falcons fertile successful the apical 10 and the Panthers are next-to-last. Remember, discourtesy is much predictive than defense, truthful not lone bash the Falcons person a large advantage, that large vantage means more.
Moody: I urge betting the under. When 2 large NFL teams play midweek, determination is simply a batch of uncertainty. We person 2 suboptimal teams playing connected Thursday night. In full yards per game, Carolina (30th) and Atlanta (25th) fertile adjacent the bottom. The Panthers fertile 23rd successful points scored per game. This crippled could besides beryllium affected by weather. It is apt that the remnants of Hurricane Nicole volition bring scattered showers and upwind to Bank of America Stadium, which is an open-air stadium, truthful teams volition person nary extortion from the rainfall oregon wind. The nether is 4-2 successful the Falcons' past six games and 6-0 successful its past six Thursday games, and the nether is 7-3 successful the Panthers' past 10 divisional matchups.
At 4-5, the Falcons are tied with the Bucs for the part pb with 8 games left. However, the Bucs are -220 to triumph the division, portion the Falcons are +320. Are they worthy a bet?
Marks: I already placed this stake 2 weeks ago. Atlanta has the second-easiest spot of docket for the remainder of the season, and their rushing onslaught gets adjacent much explosive with the instrumentality of Patterson. I'm not sold that a triumph against the Rams turns the Bucs' play around, I'm not sold connected an Andy Dalton offense, and the Panthers' play can't extremity accelerated enough.
Schatz: I deliberation the Buccaneers are the wide favorites to instrumentality this division. They inactive fertile 10th successful DVOA contempt the losing record, but our playoff likelihood simulation says the value present is with the Falcons +320. It's not overmuch value, but we would enactment the Falcons person to +240. Anita is close astir the schedule; successful fact, by DVOA alternatively of win-loss record, the Falcons person the easiest remaining schedule, not the second-easiest!
Walder: I'd stake the Falcons astatine +320. I hold with Aaron; the Bucs are the favorites, but not favorites to this degree. I don't deliberation conscionable due to the fact that Tom Brady led a comeback against the Rams we should presume the Bucs are back: they inactive struggled connected discourtesy for astir of that game. Atlanta's discourtesy has simply been better. Now, going guardant offensively I deliberation it's adjacent and the Bucs are the amended defence by a lot. But successful a 1 successful 4 changeable astatine Atlanta pulling this out? I'd instrumentality it.
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Is determination thing successful the prop marketplace you are playing successful this game?
Marks: I'm each successful connected Patterson. He should person a monster nighttime against this Panthers unreserved defense! Patterson implicit 51.5 rushing yards (-115) and anytime TD (even).
Dolan: Patterson implicit 51.5 rushing yards is the close determination successful this matchup. The Panthers defence ranks 28th against the run. Carolina's defence conscionable gave up 5 touchdowns and 153 rushing yards to Mixon. In his instrumentality to the tract past week, Patterson had 13 rushing attempts for 44 yards and 2 touchdowns. He deed implicit this people successful 2 of 5 games played this season, but support successful caput helium blew past his fig against the Saints and Seahawks. He did not play successful the 37-34 overtime triumph implicit the Panthers a mates weeks ago, but the Panthers allowed 167 rushing yards successful that crippled without Patterson connected the field.
Snellings: I hold with the emotion for Patterson, but to power it up I'll spell Patterson implicit 62.5 full rushing/receiving yards. Patterson could spell implicit this full successful rushing unsocial arsenic an explosive runner against a struggling Panthers tally defense, but he's besides a large pass-catcher/former wide receiver who could crook a azygous reception into much than 11 yards.
Schatz: I hold that the Falcons volition beryllium moving the shot a batch here, and the 1 happening the Panthers bash good is screen opposing No. 1 receivers, wherever they fertile 5th successful DVOA. Drake London had conscionable 31 yards successful the crippled 2 weeks ago, and I'm going with London nether 39.5 receiving yards (-119) successful this crippled arsenic well.
Moody: Allgeier implicit 31.5 rushing yards. Patterson performed good against the Chargers past Sunday, but Allgeier volition proceed to beryllium actively progressive successful the Falcons' committee. He accumulated 99 rushing yards connected 10 attempts against the Chargers. The Falcons are averaging 33.7 rushing attempts per game, and that inclination should proceed Thursday fixed the upwind forecast. The Panthers' defence has allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game, and Allgeier, who is averaging 4.5 yards per rush, could spot 10 oregon much rushing attempts against Carolina.