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Joe LunardiSenior Writer, ESPN.com
- Resident assemblage hoops bracketologist for ESPN
- Contributor to SportsCenter, ESPN Insider
- Published archetypal nationalist bracket successful 1995
The 2022-23 assemblage hoops season tipped disconnected Monday with a afloat time of matchups crossed the country, including each AP Top 25 teams successful play. Along with the action, the archetypal in-season variation of Bracketology has been formulated.
Gonzaga, Kentucky, Houston and North Carolina haven't mislaid their 1-seeds (yet), and we've besides identified our customary "Last Four In," "First Four Out" and "Next Four Out" groups.
But wherefore halt there? The commencement of a caller play calls for thing extra. While lone 68 teams volition yet gain a accidental to play for a spot successful the Final Four connected April 1 successful Houston, we ranked each Division I squad looking to marque the tourney -- sorted by league and postseason prospects.
Let the haggling begin!
Listed beneath is Joe Lunardi's projected bid of decorativeness wrong each conference. National rankings are successful parentheses.
ACC
North Carolina (3)
Duke (10)
Virginia (15)
Miami (31)
Virginia Tech (35)
Notre Dame (41)
Florida State (42)
Syracuse (53)
Clemson (66)
NC State (71)
Wake Forest (75)
Boston College (76)
Louisville (94)
Pittsburgh (104)
Georgia Tech (116)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: North Carolina, Duke, Virginia
Sweet 16: Miami
NCAA Bubble: Notre Dame, Florida State, Syracuse
NCAA Round of 64: Clemson, N.C. State, Wake Forest
NIT: Boston College
Sleeper: Virginia Tech
Overview: North Carolina and Duke salvaged a mediocre 2021-22 regular play for the league by advancing to their historical Final Four pairing successful Coach K's past game. The Tar Heels are the statement No. 1 squad successful the polls aft that tally but mightiness person a harder-than-expected clip of it aft dramatically outperforming their effect past March.
AMERICA EAST
Vermont (89)
Bryant (185)
UMass Lowell (209)
UMBC (248)
Binghamton (268)
Albany (282)
New Hampshire (315)
NJIT (319)
Maine (338)
Overview: Bryant joins the America East this twelvemonth aft a beardown tally successful the NEC. The Bulldogs volition beryllium an contiguous contender, but this is inactive Vermont's satellite arsenic agelong arsenic John Becker is moving the Catamounts.
AMERICAN
Houston (4)
Memphis (37)
Cincinnati (52)
Tulane (65)
Temple (78)
UCF (98)
Wichita State (105)
SMU (115)
Tulsa (146)
South Florida (155)
East Carolina (211)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: Houston
Sweet 16: Memphis
NCAA Bubble: Cincinnati
NCAA Round of 64: Tulane
NIT: UCF, Wichita State
Sleeper: Temple
Overview: The American is definite going to miss Houston erstwhile it yet joins the Big 12. In the meantime, the Cougars tin legitimately contend for a nationalist title that is conveniently scheduled to instrumentality spot successful its hometown. Kelvin Sampson's squad is that good.
ATLANTIC SUN
Liberty (83)
Jacksonville (174)
Jacksonville State (204)
Lipscomb (223)
Florida Gulf Coast (236)
North Florida (238)
Kennesaw State (247)
Austin Peay (249)
Bellarmine (251)
Eastern Kentucky (255)
Queens University (294)
Stetson (322)
Central Arkansas (328)
North Alabama (337)
Overview: Austin Peay (from the OVC) and Queens University of Charlotte (from Division II) articulation an Atlantic Sun precocious dominated by Liberty. That doesn't fig to alteration successful 2022-23.
ATLANTIC 10
Dayton (24)
Saint Louis (38)
Loyola Chicago (61)
VCU (87)
George Mason (96)
Richmond (108)
Davidson (111)
St. Bonaventure (130)
Rhode Island (132)
UMass (133)
Duquesne (166)
Saint Joseph's (170)
La Salle (286)
George Washington (187)
Fordham (192)
Tournament contenders
Sweet 16: Dayton, Saint Louis
NCAA Bubble: Loyola Chicago
NCAA Round of 64: VCU
NIT: George Mason
Sleeper: VCU
Overview: Richmond broke a humble NCAA tourney losing streak for the A-10 by knocking disconnected 5-seed Iowa past season. The adjacent situation for the league is to instrumentality to three-plus NCAA bids. Adding Loyola Chicago volition help, but this twelvemonth the league's apical dogs -- Dayton, Saint Louis and VCU -- are the ones who could triumph successful March.
BIG EAST
Creighton (13)
Villanova (16)
Xavier (27)
UConn (28)
St. John's (45)
Providence (49)
Seton Hall (60)
Marquette (72)
Butler (93)
DePaul (101)
Georgetown (107)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: Creighton
Sweet 16: Villanova, Xavier, UConn
NCAA Bubble: St. John's, Providence, Seton Hall
NCAA Round of 64: Marquette
NIT: Butler
Sleeper: St. John's
Overview: Villanova's decennary of dominance mightiness beryllium astatine an end, but projected league victor Creighton inactive has immoderate postseason proving to do. If the Bluejays enactment steadfast and committed astatine some ends of the court, they could play into April and bring different Final Four banner to the Big East.
BIG SKY
Montana State (134)
Montana (202)
Northern Colorado (208)
Eastern Washington (229)
Weber State (235)
Sacramento State (272)
Northern Arizona (286)
Portland State (292)
Idaho State (334)
Idaho (343)
Overview: The league rubric figures to reside successful Big Sky country, with Montana State and Montana topping astir of the preseason forecasts. The Bobcats person the champion changeable astatine an NCAA bid arsenic they effort to spell back-to-back connected Selection Sunday.
BIG SOUTH
Longwood (138)
Winthrop (177)
UNC Asheville (206)
Gardner Webb (216)
Campbell (241)
High Point (250)
Radford (283)
Presbyterian (300)
USC Upstate (304)
Charleston Southern (327)
Overview: Longwood reached its archetypal NCAA tourney a twelvemonth agone and has the pieces to return. Winthrop, the league's astir palmy program, volition beryllium close determination successful an effort to regain the Big South crown.
BIG TEN
Indiana (12)
Illinois (20)
Michigan (23)
Purdue (26)
Michigan State (29)
Iowa (30)
Ohio State (34)
Rutgers (47)
Wisconsin (48)
Maryland (54)
Penn State (59)
Northwestern (92)
Minnesota (106)
Nebraska (109)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: Indiana, Illinois
Sweet 16: Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State
NCAA Bubble: Rutgers, Wisconsin
NCAA Round of 64: Maryland, Penn State
NIT: Northwestern
Sleeper: Maryland
Overview: Indiana is my nationalist "sleeper," bully capable to marque a superior Final Four run. But it's improbable the Big Ten is breaking its 2 decade-long nationalist title drought travel March and April. Once again, the league is much quantity than elite quality.
BIG WEST
UCSB (99)
UC Irvine (152)
Hawai'i (157)
Long Beach State (162)
UC Riverside (194)
Cal State Fullerton (205)
UC Davis (207)
Cal Poly (260)
Cal State Bakersfield (271)
UC San Diego (276)
Cal State Northridge (318)
Overview: UCSB had a spot of an disconnected season, by its ain standards, but appears poised to instrumentality to the apical of the Big West. UC Irvine, Hawai'i and Long Beach State -- the second with a overmuch much humane docket -- should supply the strongest challenges.
BIG 12
Baylor (5)
Kansas (6)
Texas (8)
TCU (18)
Texas Tech (22)
Oklahoma State (39)
Oklahoma (40)
Iowa State (57)
West Virginia (67)
Kansas State (82)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: Baylor, Kansas, Texas
Sweet 16: TCU, Texas Tech
NCAA Bubble: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
NCAA Round of 64 Iowa State, West Virginia
NIT: Kansas State
Asleep: Oklahoma
Overview: You work that right. Three of our apical 8 teams (and 5 of the apical 25) reside successful the Big 12. The league boasts the past 2 nationalist champions and could precise good person had a 3rd from the canceled 2020 tournament. For nevertheless agelong it's together, this is simply a cleanable assemblage hoops league.
COLONIAL
Towson (86)
Hofstra (150)
Delaware (168)
Charleston (172)
UNC Wilmington (203)
Northeastern (212)
Drexel (230)
Stony Brook (256)
North Carolina A&T (259)
Monmouth (266)
William & Mary (288)
Elon (306)
Hampton (323)
Overview: Expansion is the bid of the time successful the CAA, with Stony Brook, North Carolina A&T, Hampton and Monmouth coming aboard. Towson (25-9) and UNC Wilmington (27-9, CBI title) were the large winners a twelvemonth ago, but it's the Tigers who bring everybody backmost to pursuit the NCAA bid that eluded them past March.
CONFERENCE USA
UAB (43)
North Texas (73)
Western Kentucky (88)
Florida Atlantic (121)
Middle Tennessee (127)
Louisiana Tech (137)
UTEP (167)
Charlotte (188)
Rice (190)
Florida International (225)
UTSA (275)
Overview: This is simply a sneaky bully league with a accidental to bash existent harm successful March. At slightest 3 teams could triumph postseason games. The instrumentality volition beryllium to get each of them into a meaningful tourney earlier the league breaks apart.
HORIZON
Northern Kentucky (136)
Purdue Fort Wayne (171)
Wright State (200)
Youngstown State (218)
Oakland (219)
Detroit Mercy (252)
Cleveland State (258)
Robert Morris (305)
Milwaukee (312)
Green Bay (342)
IUPUI (353)
Overview: The Horizon League could truly usage a squad to interruption done for a circular oregon 2 successful March. It hasn't happened since the Butler glory days, and it doesn't look anyone volition beryllium astatine that level anytime soon.
IVY LEAGUE
Penn (122)
Princeton (145)
Yale (154)
Harvard (180)
Cornell (214)
Brown (233)
Dartmouth (245)
Columbia (299)
Overview: Any of the apical 4 could triumph what figures to beryllium a precise competitory Ivy League race. This year, Princeton hosts the four-team Ivy tourney for the archetypal time, truthful we should support that successful caput erstwhile handicapping the league's automatic bid.
MAAC
Iona (100)
Rider (189)
Fairfield (198)
Quinnipiac (215)
Manhattan (217)
Saint Peter's (222)
Niagara (240)
Mount St. Mary's (254)
Siena (234)
Marist (280)
Canisius (296)
Overview: Mount St. Mary's comes implicit to the MAAC from the NEC, replacing CAA-bound Monmouth. But the large communicative remains the genuinely singular tally past March by St. Peter's, arguably the astir sustained Cinderella successful tourney history. That said, Rick Pitino and Iona aren't apt to fto the automatic bid gaffe distant a 2nd time.
MAC
Toledo (87)
Kent State (117)
Akron (125)
Ohio (173)
Buffalo (178)
Ball State (191)
Western Michigan (239)
Bowling Green (253)
Eastern Michigan (257)
Miami (Ohio) (265)
Central Michigan (284)
Northern Illinois (289)
Overview: Toledo has been consistently bully nether manager Tod Kowalczyk, including a 17-3 league grounds past year, but the Rockets haven't breached done to the NCAA tourney since 1980. They'll instrumentality different changeable this play successful what figures to beryllium different precise balanced Mid-American race.
MEAC
Norfolk State (160)
Howard (262)
North Carolina Central (291)
Morgan State (311)
Coppin State (316)
Maryland Eastern Shore (321)
South Carolina State (349)
Delaware State (356)
Overview: The unthinkable shrinking MEAC managed to bring its 8 remaining schools backmost for different year. And, erstwhile again, Norfolk State is the champion squad successful the league by a wide margin.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Drake (58)
Southern Illinois (113)
Bradley (119)
Belmont (140)
Missouri State (141)
Northern Iowa (144)
Murray State (148)
Indiana State (149)
Valparaiso (199)
Illinois State (201)
Illinois-Chicago (273)
Evansville (307)
Overview: Loyola Chicago exits and erstwhile OVC powers Belmont and Murray State marque their mode to the Missouri Valley. It's a decent speech for the league, which volition effort to thrust Drake's coattails into a caller era.
MOUNTAIN WEST
San Diego State (17)
Wyoming (46)
Boise State (69)
Utah State (79)
Colorado State (85)
UNLV (110)
New Mexico (112)
Fresno State (114)
Nevada (131)
Air Force (224)
San Jose State (227)
Tournament contenders
Sweet 16: San Diego State
NCAA Bubble: Wyoming
NCAA Round of 64: Boise State, Utah State
NIT: Colorado State
Sleeper: UNLV
Overview: First, the bully news: The Mountain West bagged 4 NCAA bids past season. The atrocious news: The teams went 0-4 successful the tournament. All mightiness beryllium good successful 2023, however, arsenic San Diego State is much than bully capable to play into the 2nd play and rise the MWC banner rather high.
NORTHEAST
Wagner (243)
Merrimack (267)
Sacred Heart (290)
St. Francis-PA (308)
Central Connecticut (341)
St. Francis-NY (345)
Long Island (348)
Fairleigh Dickinson (350)
Stonehill (357)
Overview: Division I newcomer Stonehill enters, but the shoes of exiting Bryant and Mount St. Mary's volition beryllium precise hard to fill. Wagner has by acold the champion accidental for the automatic bid, arsenic Merrimack -- yet eligible for the league tourney -- has different twelvemonth earlier it tin judge an NCAA invite.
OHIO VALLEY
Morehead State (181)
Tennessee State (270)
Tennessee Martin (285)
SIU Edwardsville (287)
Southern Indiana (301)
Little Rock (310)
Southeast Missouri State (313)
Tennessee Tech (333)
Eastern Illinois (352)
Lindenwood (355)
Overview: The OVC truly takes a deed this year, losing possibly its 3 apical schools -- Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay -- portion bringing successful Little Rock and Division I newcomers Southern Indiana and Lindenwood. Morehead State is present king of the elevation and should triumph the regular play handily.
PAC-12
UCLA (7)
Arizona (14)
Oregon (25)
USC (36)
Stanford (51)
Washington State (62)
Colorado (74)
Arizona State (77)
Washington (81)
Utah (91)
California (129)
Oregon State (183)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: UCLA, Arizona
Sweet 16: Oregon
NCAA Bubble: USC, Stanford
NCAA Round of 64: Washington State, Colorado
NIT: Arizona State, Washington, Utah
Sleeper: Stanford
Overview: Traditional West Coast fans request to bask this portion it lasts. The Pac-12 is bully capable to past UCLA and USC departing for the Big Ten, but its hoops volition N-E-V-E-R beryllium the aforesaid without the Bruins. For a change, I really hold with Bill Walton!
PATRIOT LEAGUE
Colgate (103)
Navy (228)
Boston University (231)
Army (263)
Loyola MD (274)
Lehigh (279)
Bucknell (293)
American (309)
Lafayette (329)
Holy Cross (332)
Overview: The pecking bid atop the Patriot League has been reasonably unchangeable of late. Colgate and Boston U triumph championships, and Navy scares the heck retired of everyone. The Raiders are surely the favorites again, but the Middies fig to interruption done astatine immoderate point.
SEC
Kentucky (1)
Tennessee (9)
Arkansas (11)
Auburn (19)
Alabama (21)
Texas A&M (32)
Florida (33)
LSU (50)
Ole Miss (55)
Mississippi State (63)
Missouri (64)
Vanderbilt (90)
South Carolina (95)
Georgia (97)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas
Sweet 16: Auburn, Alabama
NCAA Bubble: LSU
NCAA Round of 64: Ole Miss, Mississippi State
NIT: Missouri, Vanderbilt, South Carolina
Sleeper: Texas A&M
Overview: I don't callback a twelvemonth successful which each SEC programme made our apical 100, and a lawsuit could beryllium made for astatine slightest 5 teams to marque a Final Four (or beyond) run. Not atrocious for a shot league!
SOUTHERN
Furman (68)
UNC Greensboro (126)
Chattanooga (143)
Samford (151)
Wofford (165)
Mercer (182)
East Tennessee State (213)
Western Carolina (274)
The Citadel (281)
VMI (302)
Overview: Taking distant the abbreviated 2020-21 season, Furman has won astatine slightest 22 games each twelvemonth nether Bob Richey. Unfortunately, nary person travel successful the SoCon rubric game. That has to alteration astatine immoderate point. I'm betting purple.
SOUTHLAND
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (193)
Nicholls State (237)
New Orleans (317)
Texas A&M Commerce (336)
Northwestern State (339)
Southeastern Louisiana (340)
McNeese State (344)
Houston Christian (346)
Lamar (358)
Incarnate Word (359)
Overview: It's a bully clip to beryllium Texas A&M Corpus Christi oregon Nicholls State, considering they're the lone apical 300 programs near successful the Southland. One of the two, on with possibly New Orleans, should drawback the automatic bid beauteous overmuch each year.
SUMMIT
Oral Roberts (102)
South Dakota State (135)
South Dakota (175)
North Dakota State (210)
Denver (244)
UMKC (295)
St. Thomas-MN (297)
Western Illinois (298)
Nebraska Omaha (320)
North Dakota (330)
Overview: Oral Roberts, fueled 1 past clip by the incomparable Max Abmas, volition effort to recapture its 2021 NCAA tourney magic. But first, the Golden Eagles volition request to wrest the Summit title backmost from the Dakota schools. It's nary casual task.
SUN BELT
Louisiana (120)
James Madison (153)
Texas State (158)
Marshall (164)
Old Dominion (176)
South Alabama (184)
Georgia State (195)
Appalachian State (196)
Coastal Carolina (197)
Troy (221)
Georgia Southern (226)
Arkansas State (269)
Louisiana Monroe (278)
Southern Miss (303)
Overview: You can't archer the teams without a programme successful the new-look Sun Belt. Most important is that CAA transfers James Madison and Old Dominion, some of which came chiefly for football, volition beryllium factors connected the hardwood immediately. Holdover Louisiana is the favorite, but not by much.
SWAC
Southern (242)
Texas Southern (277)
Prairie View A&M (314)
Jackson State (324)
Alcorn State (326)
Grambling State (331)
Bethune Cookman (335)
Alabama A&M (347)
Florida A&M (351)
Alabama State (354)
Arkansas Pine Bluff (361)
Mississippi Valley State (363)
Overview: The SWAC remains respectable astatine the top, with Southern and Texas Southern continuing a multiyear battle. Prairie View A&M snuck successful for 1 title, but it has been much than a decennary since immoderate different schoolhouse went to the NCAA tournament. Look for much of the same.
WAC
Grand Canyon (80)
New Mexico State (124)
Abilene Christian (128)
Stephen F. Austin (142)
Utah Valley (156)
Cal Baptist (161)
Sam Houston State (163)
Seattle (169)
Southern Utah (179)
Tarleton State (220)
UT Arlington (246)
Utah Tech (261)
UT Rio Grande Valley (325)
Overview: Grand Canyon is opening to abstracted from the remainder of a increasing WAC, and the spread mightiness widen erstwhile New Mexico State departs. In the meantime, determination are astatine slightest a half-dozen programs with semipermanent designs connected contending.
WEST COAST
Gonzaga (2)
Saint Mary's (44)
BYU (56)
San Francisco (84)
Santa Clara (118)
Portland (123)
San Diego (139)
Loyola Marymount (147)
Pepperdine (159)
Pacific (232)
Tournament contenders
Final Four: Gonzaga
NCAA Bubble: Saint Mary's
NCAA Round of 64: BYU
NIT: San Francisco
Sleeper: Portland
Overview: The champion twelvemonth successful league past gave america the No. 1 wide effect (Gonzaga) and a grounds No. 5 effect for Saint Mary's, 1 of the smallest schools successful Division I. With the Zags and BYU successful the fold, the WCC remains a sneaky multi-bid power. Without them, who knows?
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