8:30 PM ET
ESPN staff
With Georgia present the undisputed No. 1 squad successful the country, the biggest statement for the enactment committee successful its 2nd ranking was astatine No. 4, wherever undefeated TCU earned the spot up of one-loss No. 5 Tennessee pursuing the Vols' nonaccomplishment to Georgia connected Saturday.
No. 2 Ohio State was joined by No. 3 Michigan, mounting up a top-four showdown betwixt the 2 rivals successful a regular-season finale that volition find the Big Ten's champion anticipation for a semifinalist. At No. 6, one-loss Oregon remains the Pac-12's apical contender, but the league has 4 teams successful the apical 13, including No. 8 USC and No. 12 UCLA which could besides decorativeness arsenic one-loss league champions.
This ranking wasn't precisely unexpected, but it provided much clues arsenic to what could hap connected Selection Day:
Jump to:
Anger Index | 12-team bracket | Résumés |
Tennessee is inactive capable to decorativeness successful the apical four
With No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan inactive having to look each other, and Tennessee apt to tally the array and decorativeness 11-1, determination volition beryllium an accidental for immoderate controversy. The Vols extremity the regular play against unranked opponents Mizzou (4-5), South Carolina (6-3) and Vanderbilt (3-6). With Tennessee up of No. 6 Oregon, it sets the signifier for what could beryllium an highly lengthy statement successful the committee gathering country if Tennessee finishes 11-1 and Oregon finishes arsenic a one-loss Pac-12 champion. They some mislaid to Georgia -- and it wasn't beauteous for either of them.
It wouldn't beryllium the archetypal clip an SEC squad finished successful the apical 4 without winning its division. In 2017, Alabama started 11-0 but mislaid its past crippled to rival Auburn. It besides happened successful the Big Ten successful 2016, erstwhile Ohio State finished successful the apical 4 without winning its division. Tennessee is presently No. 2 successful ESPN's Strength of Record metric and No. 2 successful Strength of Schedule. It has 2 of the champion wins successful the country, against Alabama and astatine LSU. Only erstwhile has the CFP snubbed a one-loss SEC squad -- erstwhile No. 5 Texas A&M was near retired successful 2020.
It's not unprecedented, but it's surely not casual to decorativeness successful the apical 4 without a league title. Right now, the committee thinks Tennessee is the amended team, but a league title against a ranked hostile could springiness Oregon the propulsion it needs, on with regular-season wins against No. 13 Utah and present No. 25 Washington.
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 9, 2022The borderline for mistake is slim, but No. 4 TCU controls its playoff path
An undefeated TCU is in. One loss, though, and the Frogs could beryllium looking up astatine the Pac-12 champion and/or Tennessee. By putting TCU successful the apical 4 this week, the committee showed its willingness to bash truthful connected Selection Day if TCU tin stay unscathed -- particularly considering the Frogs person the No. 1 remaining docket spot successful the country. They could adhd to their résumé Saturday with a triumph astatine Texas, which is present the committee's No. 18 team, and they extremity the play with games astatine Baylor and location against Iowa State. ESPN's FPI projects TCU volition suffer its back-to-back roadworthy games, though, which would destruct the Frogs and the full Big 12 from the mix.
LSU holds the cardinal to SEC chaos
At No. 7, LSU is precisely wherever it was expected to beryllium - the committee's highest-ranked two-loss team, but inactive down No. 5 Tennessee due to the fact that of the Oct. 8 head-to-head result. That doesn't mean, though, that two-loss LSU can't oregon won't determination up. If the Tigers someway tally the array and bushed Georgia to triumph the SEC, they would apt go the archetypal two-loss squad successful the CFP. Then the enactment committee would besides person a 12-1 Georgia squad to see arsenic the SEC runner-up, and the 11-1 Vols who hammered the SEC champs 40-13 successful Baton Rouge during the regular season.
So past what?
It would beryllium successful ample portion connected what happened successful the different Power 5 league title games. It's a agelong to ideate the committee would truly instrumentality 3 SEC teams, but if two-loss Utah wins the Pac-12, the Big 12 has a two-loss league champion, and the loser of Ohio State-Michigan is beaten soundly, it's not impossible. Especially considering the mediocre signifier the ACC is successful ...
The ACC is successful the worst signifier of the Power 5 conferences
Clemson's nonaccomplishment astatine Notre Dame was devastating, arsenic the Tigers sank to No. 10, but that wasn't the lone casualty. Clemson was banking connected wins against Syracuse and Wake Forest to impressment the committee - and it was capable past week - but some of those teams dropped retired of the Top 25 connected Tuesday aft they suffered their 3rd losses. Clemson's champion triumph is present against No. 16 NC State. Even astatine No. 10, determination are capable different contenders up of them - and adjacent down them successful the Pac-12 - that person much opportunities to leap the Tigers. With the win, though, Notre Dame was ranked astatine No. 20 this week, which is simply a boost for Ohio State's résumé, and could besides assistance USC down the stretch.
No. 17 Tulane and No. 22 UCF could beryllium playing for a New Year's Six bowl.
The 2 champion teams successful the American Athletic Conference look each different connected Saturday. The highest-ranked league champion from the Group of 5 is guaranteed to gain a spot successful a New Year's Six bowl, truthful the victor of Saturday's crippled volition instrumentality the pb for that spot. -- Heather Dinich
Anger index
The archetypal committee rankings are bound to choler immoderate instrumentality bases, but they besides acceptable a signifier for what's to come. They connection a model into the committee's perceptions, which allows each instrumentality basal to person an inkling of wherever the chips mightiness autumn successful consequent rankings. So erstwhile it comes to the 2nd apical 25, it's little astir who's being snubbed and much astir however the committee applies caller logic to teams that defies the explanations offered conscionable a week earlier.
In different words, this week's Anger Index is each astir context. The committee whitethorn person loved you a week ago, but now, you're conscionable different squad with a fewer axes to grind.
So, who's aggravated aft the 2nd acceptable of rankings?
1. Clemson Tigers (8-1)
The nonaccomplishment to Notre Dame was ugly, that overmuch is clear. And Clemson has immoderate large questions connected discourtesy close now. But the Tigers were bully capable to beryllium No. 4 a week ago, bully capable that Notre Dame's triumph moved the Irish from unranked into the apical 20, and bully capable that they're inactive the wide favourite to triumph the ACC. So, wherefore driblet Clemson each the mode to No. 10?
Here's a speedy comparison:
Team A: No. 8 spot of record, 4 wins implicit FPI top-40 teams, 9.4 points per crippled borderline vs. Power 5, 2 one-possession wins implicit presently unranked teams, 29th successful violative efficiency, 26th successful antiaircraft efficiency
Team B: No. 10 spot of record, 1 triumph implicit FPI top-40 teams, 8.9 points per crippled borderline vs. Power 5, 3 one-possession wins implicit presently unranked teams, 2nd successful violative efficiency, 76th successful antiaircraft efficiency
You tin astir apt conjecture that Team A is Clemson. Team B? That's USC, ranked 2 spots higher contempt its champion triumph coming by 3 implicit Oregon State. For arsenic atrocious arsenic Clemson looked against Notre Dame, it inactive has wins implicit NC State, Wake Forest, Syracuse and Florida State.
Yes, the Notre Dame nonaccomplishment is the astir caller information point, but the committee is expected to disagree from things similar the AP canvass by starting caller each week, evaluating the resume arsenic a full -- batch conscionable giving much value to the happening they saw astir recently.
And let's besides beryllium wide astir that Notre Dame loss. It was an implosion by Clemson much than it was a existent drubbing by Notre Dame. The Irish got a touchdown connected peculiar teams, a prime six and different TD pursuing an interception heavy successful Clemson territory.
The information is, Clemson's discourtesy is simply a spot of a messiness close now. But is that truthful overmuch much concerning than a USC defence that conscionable gave up 35 to Cal? Or an Alabama defence that couldn't halt LSU successful crunch time? Or an LSU squad with 1 much nonaccomplishment (including to a Florida State squad that Clemson beat)?
No 1 successful Clemson should beryllium feeling bully close now. There's overmuch enactment to beryllium done to close the ship. But this feels similar an overcorrection that's looking wholly astatine the last people of the astir caller crippled and ignoring each the things the committee liked astir the Tigers a week earlier.
2. UCLA Bruins (8-1)
There is 1 Pac-12 squad that is intelligibly amended than UCLA and that's Oregon. The Ducks bushed UCLA convincingly successful Eugene connected Oct. 22. So we recognize wherefore Oregon is ranked higher. But six spots higher? With USC someway successful between?
UCLA bushed Utah. USC mislaid to Utah. USC is ranked higher than UCLA. Make that marque sense. You can't.
Even Utah, which was drubbed by the Bruins and has 1 much loss, is conscionable 1 spot down UCLA. Is the Cal assemblage committee slipping a fewer sawbucks to the committee conscionable to spite UCLA for its determination to the Big Ten? Otherwise, there's simply nary origin to person the Bruins arsenic the second-lowest ranked one-loss Power 5 team.
3. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1)
Let's get this straight. A week ago, Tennessee was the champion squad successful the state with easy the champion resume. Then the Vols spell to Georgia, suffer to the caller No. 1 squad successful upwind that did small to assistance Hendon Hooker and the offense, and abruptly they're No. 5? Meanwhile, up of Tennessee successful the pecking bid is TCU, which jumped from 7 to four, contempt struggling to get past Texas Tech. Ohio State jumped Tennessee adjacent though the Buckeyes looked atrocious against woeful Northwestern. Michigan, too, jumped Tennessee contempt losing to Rutgers astatine the half.
ESPN's spot of grounds inactive says Tennessee is the second-best squad successful the country. Just due to the fact that the Volunteers happened to tally into the juggernaut that is Georgia shouldn't negate each that came before. Just inquire Oregon.
4. Liberty Flames (8-1)
A failed two-point conversion against Wake Forest (who was ranked conscionable a week ago) is the lone blemish connected Liberty's resume. Last week, they went to Fayetteville and bushed Arkansas (aren't SEC wins expected to number double?). The Flames person coagulated wins implicit Southern Miss, UAB and BYU, too. And truthful the question indispensable beryllium asked: What does Hugh Freeze request to bash to sweeten the woody capable to get Liberty ranked?
5. Kansas Jayhawks (6-3)
There are 5 ranked 6-3 teams. Kansas is not 1 of them. This shows that the committee, overmuch similar Stanford, does not similar fun.
Kansas has 2 wins implicit FPI top-40 teams. That's the aforesaid fig arsenic Florida State and Kentucky. Kansas bushed Oklahoma State. Texas did not. Oh, and we each cognize what happened the past clip Kansas and Texas faced disconnected head-to-head. The committee doesn't request to attraction astir bottommost fewer teams successful the top-25, truthful let's bask the ride, folks. Rank Kansas. It's the close happening to do. -- David Hale
How a 12-team playoff would look
Everyone with the powerfulness to grow the College Football Playoff wants the tract to turn to 12 teams successful clip for the 2024 season.
But currently, enlargement is scheduled to statesman successful 2026. So portion discussions proceed connected however to determination up the timeline, we're taking a look astatine however a 12-team playoff would look contiguous based connected the already-determined exemplary released by the commissioners and presidents.
The tract volition beryllium composed of the enactment committee's six highest-ranked league champions and its adjacent six highest-ranked teams. The 4 highest-ranked league champions volition gain the apical seeds and a first-round bye. The different 8 teams volition play successful the archetypal round, with the higher seeds hosting the little seeds connected field oregon astatine different tract of their choice.
Here's what the playoff would look similar if the 12-team format were successful spot today:
Seeds with byes
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. Oregon
Remaining seeds
(conference champs successful bold)
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. LSU
8. USC
9. Alabama
10. Clemson
11. Ole Miss
12. Tulane
First-round games:
No. 12 Tulane @ No. 5 Michigan
No. 11 Ole Miss @ No. 6 Tennessee
No. 10 Clemson @ No. 7 LSU
No. 9 Alabama @ No. 8 USC
Quarterfinal games:
No. 9 Alabama-No. 8 USC victor vs. No. 1 Georgia
No. 10 Clemson-No. 7 LSU victor vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 11 Ole Miss-No. 6 Tennessee victor vs. No. 3 TCU
No. 12 Tulane-No. 5 Michigan victor vs. No. 4 Oregon
Top 10 résumés
No. 1 Georgia
Record: 9-0 | SOS: 47 | SOR: 1
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee 27-13
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday astatine Mississippi State
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18
No. 2 Ohio State
Record: 9-0 | SOS: 53 | SOR: 3
Biggest win: Oct. 29 astatine Penn State 44-31
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan
Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship, No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24
No. 3 Michigan
Record: 9-0 | SOS: 73 | SOR: 5
Biggest win: Oct. 15 vs. Penn State 41-17
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 astatine Ohio State
Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal astatine the Orange Bowl, No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11
No. 4 TCU
Record: 9-0 | SOS: 68 | SOR: 4
Biggest win: Oct. 22 vs. Kansas State 38-28
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday astatine Texas
Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 5 Tennessee
Record: 8-1 | SOS: 2 | SOR: 2
Biggest win: Oct. 8 astatine LSU 40-13
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 19 astatine South Carolina
Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 6 Oregon
Record: 8-1 | SOS: 27 | SOR: 6
Biggest win: Oct. 22 vs. UCLA 45-30
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 19 vs. Utah
Last playoff appearance: 2015 CFP National Championship, No. 4 Ohio State 42, No. 2 Oregon 20
No. 7 LSU
Record: 7-2 | SOS: 8 | SOR: 7
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama 32-31
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 astatine Texas A&M
Last playoff appearance: 2020 CFP National Championship: No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25
No. 8 USC
Record: 8-1 | SOS: 64 | SOR: 10
Biggest win: Sept. 24 astatine Oregon State
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 19 astatine UCLA
Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 9 Alabama
Record: 7-2 | SOS: 6 | SOR: 9
Biggest win: Sept. 10 astatine Texas 20-19
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday astatine Ole Miss
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National Championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18
No. 10 Clemson
Record: 8-1 | SOS: 55 | SOR: 8
Biggest win: Oct. 1 vs. NC State 30-20
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina
Last playoff appearance: 2021 Playoff Semifinal astatine the Sugar Bowl, No. 3 Ohio State 49, No. 2 Clemson 28
English (US)