Mystery teams, All-Americans and other national predictions for 2022-23

2 years ago 45

Seven months ago, Kansas entered the locker country astatine halftime successful the nationalist rubric crippled facing a double-digit shortage against North Carolina. Something happened wrong that room, due to the fact that Kansas past launched 1 of the large turnarounds successful title-game history, chopped down the nets, and the 2021-22 play was over.

A batch has changed successful assemblage hoops since then. Nearly 2,000 players entered the transportation portal and restructured rosters astir the country. The retirements of Jay Wright and Mike Krzyzewski person begun a caller section for 2 of the game's powerhouses. Expansion rumors proceed to percolate, and it's unclear however the game's hierarchy volition look successful the future.

That each sets the signifier for a 2022-23 run afloat of mysteries. Sure, Oscar Tshiebwe and Drew Timme return, and North Carolina is an evident favourite to triumph the nationalist title. But we don't cognize overmuch much beyond that. After six weeks of previewing the season -- including discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each Power 5 conference, the AAC and the mid-majors -- ESPN's Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi marque their last predictions.

Let the amusive begin.

2022-23 NATIONAL PREDICTIONS FOR ...

The astir absorbing team

Medcalf: It feels harmless to presume UCLA's matrimony to the Pac-12 volition extremity successful turmoil. During Pac-12 media day, league commissioner George Kliavkoff said helium didn't cognize anyone successful favour of the Bruins' determination to the Big Ten -- putting manager Mick Cronin and his players successful a atrocious spot that day. The play could proceed passim the season, particularly if the preseason league rubric prime lives up to the hype. Meanwhile, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is yet healthy, five-star imaginable Amari Bailey has arrived and Tyger Campbell is 1 of America's apical constituent guards. UCLA is must-see TV this year.

Borzello: Duke is ever a storyline entering the season. But Mike Krzyzewski is nary longer connected the sideline, replaced by Jon Scheyer aft much than 40 years successful Durham. And, Duke brings successful the No. 1 recruiting people successful the country, portion returning conscionable 1 subordinate (Jeremy Roach) who saw a existent relation past season. There are a batch of questions, but besides precocious expectations and a ton of talent.

Gasaway: The past clip we saw Kentucky, the Wildcats mislaid to a No. 15 seed. Now, they're KenPom's preseason No. 1. For the archetypal clip successful manager John Calipari's tenure, 2 seasons person travel and gone without the programme reaching the 2nd play of the tournament. That reigning Wooden Award victor Oscar Tshiebwe is inactive present proves assemblage has go a large man's crippled ... right? Or bash the past 2 nationalist champions suggest otherwise?

Lunardi: It volition person been 7 years without a telephone erstwhile Indiana sees its sanction connected Selection Sunday. Now, successful conscionable his 2nd season, Mike Woodson has the Hoosiers successful presumption to extremity up atop the Big Ten and play heavy into March. Woodson came location for this; prima Trayce Jackson-Davis came backmost for this. Could Indiana truly marque the Final Four for the archetypal clip this century? Why not?

The "mystery team" that volition beryllium either a bracket disruptor oregon a tourney disaster

Lunardi: Dayton volition statesman its 2020 COVID revenge circuit with constituent defender Malachi Smith sidelined by an ankle injury. Not great, but amended than cancelling the NCAA tourney connected a presumptive No. 1 effect and champion squad successful schoolhouse history. Smith volition beryllium back, halfway DaRon Holmes II volition bash a credible Obi Toppin imitation and the Flyers volition not beryllium "first squad out" of the 2023 field. This season, the "D" successful Dayton stands for disruptor.

Gasaway: Iowa. We've seen the "disaster" part. The Hawkeyes were retired of the tourney by precocious day connected the archetypal Thursday of the 2022 tournament, courtesy of No. 12 effect Richmond. But laptops yet again perfectly emotion this 2022-23 offense. Plus, Kris Murray is simply a preseason All-Big Ten enactment contempt starting conscionable erstwhile past season. The aforementioned laptops are yet again wary of Iowa's defense, though. The Hawkeyes could daze a No. 1 effect successful the circular of 32 oregon propulsion different 2022.

Borzello: Auburn was 1 of the nation's large surprises past season, winning the SEC and adjacent rising each the mode to No. 1 successful the polls successful precocious January. The Tigers person the endowment to vie adjacent the apical of the league again -- but besides person a backcourt that was highly inconsistent and struggled with decision-making past season. And present they don't person Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler to bail them out. Can Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson instrumentality a measurement forward? Can Yohan Traore and Johni Broome regenerate the outgoing first-rounders?

Medcalf: Purdue. There's a script successful which nationalist subordinate of the twelvemonth campaigner Zach Edey and a clump of caller guards, including David Jenkins Jr. (40% from 3 astatine Utah past season), could blend and beryllium a unsafe radical acceptable for a tally successful March. There's besides the accidental the Boilermakers could get into the NCAA tourney and look a seasoned squad that bounces them out.

The archetypal top-25 squad to exit the NCAA tournament

Gasaway: Oregon missed the tourney past play and returns little than fractional of its possession minutes. Will Richardson is outstanding. Landing nationalist top-10 enlistee Kel'el Ware was an exceptionally bully get for manager Dana Altman. Still, it's not wholly wide however this peculiar rotation is expected, oregon expecting, to excel.

Medcalf: Illinois. I deliberation Brad Underwood ever finds a mode to regroup, and adding Terrence Shannon Jr. and Matthew Mayer is surely a boost. But the nonaccomplishment of Kofi Cockburn, 1 of the astir imposing players successful assemblage hoops for the past 2 years, leaves 1 of the sport's top voids. I could spot this squad being reasonably susceptible erstwhile the NCAA tourney begins.

Lunardi: No 1 has admired Villanova's decennary of excellence much than this St. Joe's guy. But does immoderate schoolhouse get John Wooden twice? The nonaccomplishment of Jay Wright is massive. The Achilles wounded suffered by Justin Moore was lone 7 months ago. The Big East has aggregate challengers to Villanova's throne. All owed respect to caller manager Kyle Neptune, who has deed each the close notes successful succeeding Wright, but the Wildcats person lone 1 mode to go.

Borzello: Michigan, the lone AP preseason apical 25 squad I don't person successful my apical 25 heading into the season. The Wolverines bring backmost conscionable 1 starter from a squad that finished 19-15 past play (albeit 1 that made the Sweet 16 arsenic an 11-seed), and don't bring successful immoderate surefire lottery picks oregon game-changing talent. I emotion Hunter Dickinson, but manager Juwan Howard volition person to fig retired a batch of things with the remainder of his roster.

The subordinate not named Tshiebwe oregon Timme who could situation for the Wooden Award

Lunardi: I already mentioned the imaginable interaction of Trayce Jackson-Davis. The 6-9 sophomore is the apt Big Ten Player of the Year. Why not instrumentality it 1 measurement further if the Hoosiers tin propulsion disconnected a storybook Final Four season?

Borzello: Armando Bacot. It's not each that originative of an answer, but the champion subordinate connected the preseason No. 1 squad successful the country? I'll instrumentality a changeable connected that immoderate day. Bacot is ascendant connected the interior. He averaged 16 and 13 past season, past upped his crippled successful the NCAA tournament, averaging 15.3 points and 16.5 rebounds -- including 2 games of 20-plus rebounds. Ridiculous numbers. If helium does adjacent to that for a afloat play ...

Medcalf: If Zach Edey's numbers turn -- from 14.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.2 BPG successful 19.0 MPG past play -- erstwhile his minutes increase, he'll beryllium a beardown candidate. He'll beryllium the anchor for Purdue, which has produced 4 AP All-Americans since 2011.

Gasaway: Max Abmas. He's the nation's third-leading returning scorer, and there's a just accidental Abmas volition motorboat 300 3-point attempts this season. What if they fall? Enough of these all-conference teams with 4 centers. Keep an oculus connected the Oral Roberts scoring instrumentality listed astatine 6-foot-0.

The storyline to watch

Borzello: The returning bigs. And it's not conscionable Oscar Tshiebwe, Drew Timme, Armando Bacot, Hunter Dickinson and Trayce Jackson-Davis. The extent astatine the presumption is singular this season. Adama Sanogo is going to beryllium large again. Zach Edey mightiness beryllium the astir ascendant wrong scorer successful the country. Colin Castleton is fantastic astatine some ends of the floor. Ryan Kalkbrenner is incredibly underrated. DaRon Holmes II is acceptable to person a immense season. Oh, and the No. 1 enlistee successful the ESPN 100 was Duke halfway Dereck Lively. There volition beryllium high-level idiosyncratic matchups astatine the presumption each season.

Gasaway: The changing game. Will UCLA and USC truly articulation the Big Ten? (Not if our workfellow Bill Walton tin assistance it!) What astir Gonzaga and the Big 12? Is tournament expansion truly connected the table, oregon is it conscionable talk? Will determination beryllium a 24-second clock? Does the enactment committee truly person to unrecorded forever? It's been a bully 40-odd years with a 60-something-team tournament, shifting conferences and progressively longer 3-point lines and shorter changeable clocks. What's next?

Medcalf: A Gonzaga determination to the Big 12 would not lone displacement assemblage basketball, but it would enlarge the disagreement betwixt the large conferences and everybody else. But it would besides make much questions astir the aboriginal of the Pac-12. The Big 12 continues to consciousness similar the league with the astir imaginable to go a 3rd superconference. If that unfolds this year, and the transportation portal continues to grow, it's just to wonderment if assemblage basketball's non-Power 5 leagues volition simply go assemblage basketball's G League successful a caller era.

Lunardi: The drumbeat for NCAA tourney enlargement volition turn louder. It's not a unspeakable idea, provided it's done modestly -- arsenic in, not 96 teams -- and sensibly. There are ways to code some the powerfulness league schools connected the at-large broadside and sphere the evident spot for automatic qualifiers successful America's top sporting event. And if the men's hoops committee can't fig it out, yours genuinely is conscionable a telephone telephone away.

2022-23 PICKS

2023 FINAL FOUR PICKS

Medcalf: North Carolina*, Houston, Kentucky, UCLA
Borzello: North Carolina*, Houston, Baylor, UCLA
Gasaway: Baylor*, Tennessee, Houston, Duke
Lunardi: Kentucky*, Indiana, Virginia, Creighton

WOODEN AWARD (PLAYER OF THE YEAR) PICKS

Medcalf: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
Borzello: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
Gasaway: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
Lunardi: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky

NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR PICKS

Medcalf: Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
Borzello: Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
Gasaway: Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
Lunardi: Dereck Lively II, Duke