NFL betting odds, picks, tips: Packs' woes continue; Bills in trouble?

Week 10 of the 2022 NFL play started with the Carolina Panthers knocking disconnected the Atlanta Falcons 25-15 connected Thursday night. Sunday features respective intriguing games, including the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Buffalo Bills and the Dallas Cowboys heading to Lambeau Field to instrumentality connected the Green Bay Packers.

But what does it mean from a betting perspective? And what are the champion plays to assistance you marque astute wagering decisions?

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder; and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz connection their penetration into the games with tips and picks.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.

The Cowboys and Packers look disconnected Sunday day successful a conflict of 2 teams seemingly heading successful other directions. The Cowboys person a 6-2 ATS record, covering a league-best 75.9%, portion Green Bay is 3-6 ATS, failing to screen successful its past 3 location games. The Cowboys (-4.5, 43) participate the Week 10 matchup arsenic the favorite. Who bash you similar successful this matchup, and why?

Kezirian: Last week was enactment up oregon unopen up for the Packers, and let's conscionable accidental they did not enactment up. Green Bay present has mislaid 5 consecutive games, and portion immoderate of those were winnable, the Packers are not executing for a afloat 4 quarters. However, I americium successful nary unreserved to laic points with Mike McCarthy. I volition play the under due to the fact that until I tin safely trust connected Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense, I expect them to underperform yet again.

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Schatz: This is simply a adjacent 1 with that spread, but I volition spell with the Cowboys -4.5. They are intelligibly the amended squad according to our DVOA ratings. Dallas, surprisingly, is each the mode up astatine No. 3, up of adjacent Kansas City successful our numbers. The Cowboys are our No. 1 defence truthful acold this season, but their discourtesy (10th) is besides rated higher than the Packers' discourtesy (15th). And don't hide astir the Cowboys' peculiar teams advantage, wherever we person them 2nd down Baltimore, portion Green Bay is 30th. It volition beryllium acold successful Green Bay, but not horrifically cold, and I deliberation the Cowboys volition beryllium good with kickoff temperatures supra freezing.

Fulghum: I similar the Dallas side successful this matchup. Coming disconnected the bye, the Cowboys are successful a bully spot to question to Lambeau and lucifer oregon transcend marketplace expectations. Their ascendant defence gets what has been an casual matchup truthful acold this season. The Lions' defence conscionable held the Packers' discourtesy to 9 points successful a dome past week. Meanwhile, the underachieving Green Bay defence conscionable mislaid its astir talented subordinate successful Rashan Gary, making the duty adjacent little imposing for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense. I besides similar this crippled to spell under the total.

Snellings: I similar Dallas -4.5. The Cowboys are playing precise good and are 1 of the apical teams successful the league. The Packers are astatine the other extreme. The Cowboys are fantabulous connected the ground, and the Packers conflict to halt the run. The Packers are struggling to walk the ball, and the Cowboys person 1 of the champion walk rushes successful the league. Though the NFL play has truthful galore matchup vagaries, this seems similar 1 the Cowboys should screen comfortably.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings question to Highmark Stadium successful Orchard Park, New York, to look the Bills successful Week 10. With Bills QB Josh Allen listed arsenic questionable due to the fact that of a close elbow injury, the Bills are inactive 3.5-point favorites heading into Sunday's matchup. What are your thoughts connected this matchup, the Vikings this play (+550 to triumph the NFC, +1600 to triumph the Super Bowl) and Allen's MVP chances (+225) aft being overtaken by Patrick Mahomes (+200) this week?

Kezirian: I would not interest astir an wounded costing Allen the MVP. Even past year, Rodgers missed a game, and that ended up helping his MVP lawsuit due to the fact that Green Bay struggled truthful overmuch without him. The question is not whether playing lone 16 games volition inhibit Allen's chances, but whether it volition bounds him physically. I americium of the content that erstwhile helium returns, helium volition bash truthful effectively.

Schatz: The Vikings fertile lone 18th successful our DVOA ratings astatine this point. They are the second-worst 7-1 squad we've ever tracked, up of lone the 2000 Vikings squad that yet got clobbered by the Giants successful the NFC Championship Game that season. They are going to triumph the division, and I adjacent somewhat favour them with the 3.5 points against a Bills squad that volition apt beryllium starting Case Keenum, but they aren't going to triumph the NFC. Our playoff likelihood simulation astatine Football Outsiders suggests those Vikings likelihood should beryllium person to +1000 to triumph the NFC and +2800 to triumph the Super Bowl.

Fulghum: I truly similar the Bills and the under successful this spot. Minnesota has a bully record, but it's a small spot of fume and mirrors. Even if Case Keenum is the starting QB, I spot the Buffalo defence to bounds Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota discourtesy to an inefficient game. Keenum is 1 of the astir susceptible backups successful the NFL, and the trial against the Vikings' defence is acold from imposing. The Vikes are allowing 387.1 YPG (28th) and 256.9 passing YPG (27th) this season.

As for the MVP futures market, I present privation arsenic overmuch Patrick Mahomes arsenic I tin get. Tyreek Hill is apt the midseason grant victor for Offensive Player of the Year, truthful the information that Mahomes lost a subordinate of that caliber from his discourtesy and has inactive guided Kansas City to the astir businesslike and prolific passing onslaught successful the league speaks volumes.

Dolan: Stay away crippled for me. When a enactment drops from -8.5 to -3.5, it's alarming. On apical of that, I americium not definite the Vikings are arsenic bully arsenic their 7-1 grounds reflects. Minnesota's defence ranks 22nd successful hostile yards per play, 24th successful hostile full QBR and 27th successful hostile passing yards per game. The Vikings person been palmy this play against backmost up quarterbacks, but the Bills inactive person a stout defense. Again, it's enactment distant for me.

Snellings: I'm besides staying distant from this game. I conscionable don't cognize what to expect with Allen this weekend. I volition accidental that his MVP chances volition instrumentality a superior deed if helium has to miss clip owed to wounded oregon if the Bills commencement losing portion helium struggles. So, fixed what we cognize today, I'd accidental Mahomes is apt to overtake Allen successful the MVP race.

What are the astir important things our analytics say?

Walder: There are 3 games for which the FPI disagrees with the betting market, but I'll springiness you lone 1 here. That's due to the fact that our fig for the Bills is assuming Josh Allen plays, whereas the marketplace is intelligibly not. And, frankly, our fig for the Seahawks-Buccaneers crippled appears to beryllium wonky, possibly owed to the crippled determination successful Germany.

But there's 1 crippled for which the FPI is decidedly making a call.

Indianapolis Colts astatine Las Vegas Raiders (-5, 41.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

FPI prediction: Raiders by 12.7

The FPI's fig present volition travel down due to the fact that it doesn't yet bespeak the quality that Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are headed to injured reserve, and that's hardly trivial. But we'll inactive beryllium higher than the line, and that's without the FPI knowing that the Colts made a coaching alteration this week. Ultimately this is astir 2 factors: the Raiders being amended than their grounds -- their discourtesy ranks 12th successful EPA per play, for illustration -- and the Colts starting Sam Ehlinger astatine quarterback. Because of that, the exemplary believes the Raiders should beryllium dense favorites.

What is your champion stake for Week 10?

Kezirian: Give maine the Seahawks +2.5 against Tampa, and I judge they triumph the crippled outright. Tom Brady demonstrated immoderate magic successful past Sunday's comeback, but this Bucs discourtesy is inactive beauteous weak. Geno Smith inactive has critics, but I deliberation helium has been large this season. Seattle ranks sixth successful violative efficiency, and the playcalling has been tremendous. Tampa has a beardown defense, but I americium assured successful Seattle's discourtesy to get the occupation done.

Fortenbaugh: Miami squad full implicit 26.5 points. If you destruct the 2.5 games Miami played without backmost Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins are averaging a steadfast 27.5 points per contention acknowledgment to an discourtesy that tin onslaught from anyplace connected the field. Cleveland is coming disconnected its bye week, but the Browns fertile 24th successful scoring and 19th successful hostile yards per play.

Schatz: I'll spell with Detroit +3 successful Chicago. We're each excited astir the mode the Bears person yet unlocked Justin Fields implicit the past 3 weeks, and Chicago ranks ninth successful violative DVOA during that time. But the Bears are besides 31st successful antiaircraft DVOA implicit that aforesaid period. With the trades they've made, losing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, their defence has collapsed. And if we're going to beryllium excited astir however the Bears person been bully connected discourtesy for 3 weeks, shouldn't we besides beryllium excited by however the Lions person played bully defence for the past 3 weeks? The Bears emotion to run, and the Lions held Green Bay moving backs to 66 yards connected 21 carries past week. They picked disconnected Aaron Rodgers 3 times! It's much apt that we larn much astir these teams from the full season, not conscionable the past 3 weeks, and successful that lawsuit the Lions person wide been better, 22nd successful DVOA compared to 28th for the Bears.

Snellings: Give maine Browns-Dolphins implicit 49. The Dolphins' discourtesy is nigh unstoppable with everyone healthy, and Jeff Wilson conscionable gives them different dimension. On the different hand, the Dolphins' defence can't dilatory down anyone. The operation has already led to respective high-scoring games, and this play should beryllium another.

What is your favourite subordinate prop?

Fulghum: Saquon Barkley implicit 93.5 rushing yards (-117). The Texans' tally defence is allowing 180.6 yards per crippled to opposing offenses. That's the highest people successful the league. Barkley should spot ample measurement and accidental against this portion with the Giants operating successful a delightful location favourite crippled script.

Dolan: Justin Fields implicit 58.5 rushing yards (-121) versus Detroit. The Lions springiness up the astir points successful the league and fertile 31st against the run. Fields has deed implicit this people successful 4 consecutive games and is averaging 69 rushing yards per game. He went disconnected past week connected the ground, and I expect him to bash truthful again against this Detroit defense.

Snellings: I besides emotion Fields implicit 58.5 rushing yards and Saquon Barkley implicit 93.5 rushing yards, but Erin and Tyler bushed maine to those. So I'll spell Derrick Henry implicit 106.5 rushing yards (-115). Henry is successful his unstoppable mode close now, with 5 consecutive games implicit 100 rushing yards and an mean of 135.6 rushing yards implicit that stretch. The Broncos' defence is weaker against the run, and Henry should get his again this week.