Ranking top NFL MVP candidates: Which quarterback leads the race at midseason?

For astir of the archetypal fractional of the 2022 NFL season, it seemed similar Josh Allen was moving distant with the MVP award. Then the Buffalo Bills mislaid to the New York Jets, and again to the Minnesota Vikings successful melodramatic manner this past Sunday -- and Allen's mistakes were beforehand and center.

In that stretch, Kansas City Chiefs backmost Patrick Mahomes moved to the beforehand of the pack, and Jalen Hurts led the Philadelphia Eagles to an 8-1 commencement that bolstered his campaign. They each stay successful the mix, forming a database highlighted by 5 quarterbacks each nether property 28. Eight weeks stay successful the regular season, with plentifulness of opportunities for the league leaders to stay retired beforehand successful the MVP contention and different candidates to emerge.

We asked a radical of analysts -- Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Dan Graziano, Matt Miller, Sal Paolantonio, Jason Reid, Jordan Reid, Mike Tannenbaum, Seth Walder and Field Yates -- to ballot connected the apical players successful the MVP contention close now. Then we utilized those 11 sets of rankings to springiness our apical 5 candidates, utilizing Heisman Trophy-esque scaling for each ranking to find however the tract stacks up. We'll besides look astatine a fewer names who person seen their MVP banal either spike oregon plummet successful the aboriginal going, and ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder besides weighed successful connected an under-the-radar MVP-caliber player. Here's a look astatine wherever things basal entering Week 11.

Note: All likelihood are via Caesars Sportsbook.

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Under-the-radar

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

2022 stats: 2,936 passing yards, 25 TDs, 7 INTs, 78.6 QBR (215 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Current odds: +120

Mahomes has go the betting favourite for MVP and has the league's apical scoring squad (30.0 points per game) successful enactment for a seventh consecutive AFC West title. His 25 touchdown passes pb the league and are 5 much than Allen's 20 -- which is tied for the third-largest pb successful passing touchdowns implicit the past 15 seasons. The 2 up of him -- Tom Brady had a 10-touchdown pb successful 2007 and Peyton Manning was 8 TDs up successful 2013 -- some earned MVP honors successful their respective seasons.

In Week 9 against the Titans, Mahomes accounted for 509 yards of discourtesy and had 68 walk attempts (with a 63.2% completion percentage) to pb Kansas City to an overtime victory, its sixth triumph of the season. That nighttime helium catapulted himself to the apical of this list. And the Chiefs got their seventh triumph aft the backmost threw 4 touchdown passes against the Jaguars past Sunday.

There were a batch of questions entering the play astir however Mahomes would fare without Tyreek Hill, aft the receiver was traded to the Dolphins. His 78.6 QBR ranks 2nd among QBs and proves he's much than susceptible of putting up high-caliber performances with oregon without the speedy receiver.

2. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

2022 stats: 2,217 passing yards, 14 TDs, 3 INTs, 63.7 QBR (354 rushing yards, 7 TDs)
Current odds: +550

The Eagles' undefeated streak came to an extremity successful a nationally televised crippled against the Commanders connected Monday. Had they not mislaid 32-21, that crippled would person surely enactment Hurts successful the premix for the No. 1 spot successful our rankings. Hurts inactive threw 2 touchdown passes and had 175 yards against a middling Commanders walk defense.

Despite the lone loss, the 24-year-old went 4 weeks without throwing an interception (Weeks 5-9) and scored his 20th vocation rushing touchdown successful his 28th start. That is the second-fewest starts needed to scope that people since 1950 (the different was Cam Newton), according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

3. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

2022 stats: 2,733 passing yards, 20 TDs, 10 INTs, 74.3 QBR (476 rushing yards, 4 TDs)
Current odds: +500

Following the nonaccomplishment to the Jets, Allen's MVP likelihood took a further deed aft helium threw 2 interceptions and fumbled the shot successful the extremity portion connected a backmost sneak effort against the Vikings connected Sunday, giving Minnesota a antiaircraft touchdown. As a result, the Bills allowed a season-high 13 points disconnected turnovers. Allen's injured elbow was the focal constituent entering Sunday, but helium averaged 7.6 aerial yards per completion successful Week 10, which was successful enactment with his play mean (7.3).

With 7 turnovers successful his past 10 quarters and a league-worst 10 interceptions, Allen -- who was ranked No. 1 connected this database aft Week 6 -- needs to fig retired however to recapture the jaw-dropping plays that marque him 1 of the NFL's champion QBs. He besides has to get Buffalo's discourtesy backmost connected way successful the 3rd and 4th quarters. The Bills haven't scored a TD successful the 2nd fractional since they played Kansas City a period ago.

4. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

2022 stats: 2,265 passing yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs, 82.6 QBR (35 rushing yards)
Current odds: +500

Tagovailoa has been connected a teardrop since returning from a concussion successful Week 7. He leads the NFL successful passer standing (118.4) and yards per effort (9.1), and helium has 18 passing touchdowns (tied for third) contempt missing 3 games. The Dolphins backmost has thrown for 969 yards, 9 touchdown passes and zero interceptions successful his past 3 games, which included back-to-back 300-yard passing performances against the Lions and Bears.

All of this has led to a displacement successful the AFC East, wherever the Dolphins person overtaken the Bills for the part lead. Miami has won each crippled Tagovailoa has started and finished, en way to a 7-3 record.

5. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

2022 stats: 1,768 passing yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs, 65.1 QBR (635 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Current odds: +1200

Injuries to Baltimore's accomplishment players person caused Jackson's passing numbers to dip since Week 7. He fell to 2nd successful rushing among QBs aft Bears backmost Justin Fields ended Week 10 with 749 yards. But Jackson's 7.4 yards per unreserved is tops successful the league.

In the mediate of a declaration year, Jackson has the Ravens atop the AFC North with a 6-3 record. While his passing numbers -- helium ranks 21st successful passing yards and 18th successful yards per effort (6.9) -- are obscurity adjacent wherever they request to beryllium for him to seizure different MVP title, the Baltimore backmost continues to beryllium his worth to an enactment that runs its full discourtesy done him.

Just missed

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (+5000)

A wide receiver has ne'er earned MVP honors, but the lawsuit Hill is gathering puts him successful the conversation. The Dolphins' prima leads the NFL with 1,148 receiving yards and has 81 catches done 10 games. His 114.8 receiving yards per crippled has him connected gait to go the archetypal 2,000-yard receiver successful NFL history, and it's nary coincidence that arsenic Hill is ascending, truthful is his quarterback. In conscionable 7 and a fractional games played with Hill, Tagovailoa leads the NFL successful QBR (82.6) aft ranking 21st successful 2021.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+8000)

By present you've seen the drawback that is being debated among the top of each clip -- a drawback that came erstwhile the Vikings needed their prima WR the most. Jefferson is captious to the Vikings' tally to an 8-1 grounds and is perfectly successful the speech arsenic the champion receiver successful the game. He has caught astir 70% of his targets this play and precocious brought successful 10 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown successful an overtime triumph implicit Buffalo. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, 9 of those catches had a sub-50% completion probability, and Jefferson averaged 1.5 yards of separation connected 16 targets.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+6000)

Smith is simply a surefire campaigner for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award. He has besides been 1 of the NFL's champion quarterbacks for a squad that looked similar it mightiness beryllium rebuilding entering the season. Smith has the Seahawks successful archetypal spot successful the NFC West portion simultaneously ranking 5th successful passing (2,474 yards) and touchdowns (17) with the fourth-highest QBR (67.7).

Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys (+15000)

The Defensive Player of the Year front-runner has enactment unit connected opposing quarterbacks connected 18.6% of his walk rushes, the highest complaint successful the NFL. The Cowboys' defence hasn't been arsenic devastating successful caller weeks, particularly against the run, but Parsons is simply a large crushed Dallas ranks 5th successful points allowed.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+20000)

Barkley leads the NFL with 931 rushing yards, the second-highest full done 9 games successful Giants franchise history. His 152 rushing yards successful a triumph implicit Houston were his second-highest full of the season, and his 227 touches (ranked first) and 1,128 scrimmage yards (ranked second) are the motor of New York's offense.

Also received top-10 votes: Titans RB Derrick Henry, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Buccaneers QB Tom Brady, Rams DT Aaron Donald, Eagles CB James Bradberry, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Eagles WR A.J. Brown, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, Giants QB Daniel Jones

Stock up

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (+15000)

Henry's 923 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns some fertile 2nd successful the league -- and he's not acold from starring some of those categories. The Titans person softly enactment unneurotic a 6-3 grounds and beryllium atop the AFC South with the discourtesy funneling done Henry. Before Denver recovered a mode to clasp Henry to 53 rushing yards (his fewest successful a triumph successful the past 4 seasons), helium had tally for much than 100 yards successful 5 consecutive games -- including a 219-yard show astatine Houston successful Week 8.

Stock down

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+6000)

The Chargers stay successful the playoff hunt astatine 5-4 portion dealing with a slew of injuries. Those are starting to instrumentality a toll, though, arsenic Herbert has been without apical wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for respective weeks. He's inactive averaging 42 walk attempts per crippled and ranks successful the apical 10 successful yards (2,450) and touchdown passes (14), but without the menace of a rushing onslaught and a leaky defense, Herbert and the Chargers are struggling to beryllium they're contenders.

Walder's under-the-radar MVP candidate

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+6000)

The apical 5 quarterbacks successful points supra average, a measurement mentation of QBR, are presently Mahomes, Allen, Tagovailoa, Smith and Hurts. So wherefore doesn't Smith person top-five MVP buzz similar the others? He is successful a precise favorable concern with the Seahawks' beardown violative enactment and is throwing to a large receiver operation successful Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. And you could fundamentally accidental the aforesaid happening astir Hurts' violative support. The Eagles bash person much wins than the Seahawks, but they besides person a much, overmuch amended defense. Smith should beryllium successful the apical five.