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The apical 4 teams successful the state -- Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU -- each won connected Saturday to stay undefeated, truthful determination shouldn't beryllium much, if any, alteration Tuesday nighttime erstwhile the College Football Playoff enactment committee unveils its 3rd of six rankings astatine 9 p.m. ET.
No. 5 Tennessee besides should clasp its spot pursuing its lopsided triumph implicit Missouri, giving the Volunteers an accidental to decorativeness successful the apical 4 connected Selection Day without winning their league oregon division.
It gets much absorbing aft that, but not unpredictable. No. 7 LSU should stay the committee's apical two-loss team, and USC volition regenerate Oregon arsenic the Pac-12's apical playoff contender aft the Ducks and UCLA some lost. With Oregon dropping, LSU should determination up 1 spot to No. 6, followed by a promotion for USC to No. 7.
While things mightiness look elemental astatine the top, the interaction connected Selection Day gets a spot much complicated. Here's your usher to interpreting what the committee is reasoning down closed doors, on with Adam Rittenberg's lawsuit for Clemson being ranked higher than USC and the top-four picks of ESPN's assemblage shot reporters:
1. How overmuch borderline for mistake does TCU truly have? The Horned Frogs clinched a spot successful the Big 12 rubric crippled connected Saturday night, and if they decorativeness arsenic undefeated league champions, TCU volition beryllium successful the playoff. If the enactment committee bumps TCU up of Michigan connected Tuesday night, it could bespeak the Frogs person a small much leeway, but the spot of the full league is simply a question. Except for TCU, each squad successful the Big 12 has astatine slightest 3 losses, guaranteeing the Frogs volition look a lower-ranked hostile successful the league rubric game. (The victor of Ohio State-Michigan volition look a akin script successful the Big Ten, but wins successful that rivalry crippled and implicit Penn State volition trump thing TCU has connected its résumé). Pay attraction to wherever TCU's opponents are ranked, starting with Texas, which present has 4 losses. If the Frogs stumble astatine Baylor (which they shouldn't, fixed however the Bears person spiraled), their docket could outgo them.
2. Is LSU the lone two-loss squad with a chance? Alabama avoided catastrophe with its triumph connected Saturday astatine Ole Miss, but by beating the Rebels, the Crimson Tide ensured LSU's spot successful the SEC title crippled arsenic victor of the West Division. Alabama should stay down LSU successful the rankings due to the fact that of the head-to-head result, but it besides could look deceivingly adjacent astatine No. 8. There volition beryllium question up of the 8-2 Tide going forward, arsenic Ohio State oregon Michigan volition suffer successful the regular-season finale, and it's imaginable TCU loses and/or Georgia knocks LSU retired of the conversation. The CFP rankings don't travel the Associated Press canvass mentality; it's not arsenic elemental arsenic teams suffer and others determination up. Without a league oregon part title, Alabama would look overmuch higher scrutiny successful the enactment committee gathering room. The radical has written protocol it indispensable adhere to, and Alabama would travel up abbreviated successful 3 captious areas: championships won, spot of docket and head-to-head results.
3. How dire is the Pac-12's situation? With USC inactive a top-10 team, the league is inactive successful the mix, but support an oculus connected however acold Oregon and UCLA autumn -- and wherever two-loss Utah fits in. The bully quality for the league is that Washington should determination up, giving the league 5 ranked teams, which is impressive. Without divisions, the Pac-12 besides is successful amended signifier than the Big Ten and Big 12 successful presumption of its rubric crippled matchup (at slightest for now), arsenic some of those leagues volition person a squad with astatine slightest 3 losses playing for its championship. If USC runs the array and finishes arsenic a one-loss league champion, it astir apt volition person defeated 3 consecutive ranked opponents on the way: UCLA, Notre Dame and its rubric crippled opponent. That could beryllium the boost the Trojans request to get in, possibly up of Tennessee. It besides could springiness them the borderline implicit TCU arsenic a one-loss Big 12 champion. The 1 connection that should beryllium clear: It's USC oregon bust successful the Pac-12.
4. Does one-loss North Carolina person a shot? Tar Heels fans privation to cognize wherefore their squad isn't generating superior discussion. It's a just question with 2 straightforward answers: a deficiency of connection wins and defense. North Carolina's regular-season docket doesn't diagnostic 1 ranked hostile oregon 1 Power 5 nonconference win. An upset of Clemson successful the ACC rubric crippled isn't going to compensate for that, particularly with however poorly the Heels' defence has played, allowing Appalachian State 61 points and astatine slightest 24 points successful each triumph this season, but against Virginia Tech (41-10). UNC is simply a gutsy squad that is undefeated successful league play, but erstwhile the league is struggling, it's much hard to marque the case.
What the committee volition -- and should -- do
I had acold little beef with the 2nd CFP rankings than the archetypal version, but it wouldn't beryllium a Tuesday successful November without thing to kick about. The apical six spots successful Tuesday night's rankings shouldn't make excessively galore surprises, but it could get absorbing astatine No. 7 and lower, particularly with a caller Pac-12 front-runner and the teams lurking conscionable behind.
What the CFP enactment committee volition do: Rank USC up of Clemson
What the CFP enactment committee should do: Rank Clemson up of USC
When 9 of the apical 10 teams successful the rankings win, the temptation is to not messiness with the order. Oregon undoubtedly volition tumble aft its location nonaccomplishment to a bully but not elite Washington team. USC is present the lone one-loss squad near successful the Pac-12. The Trojans did thing to needfully suffer their position, overcoming a sluggish archetypal 4th Friday nighttime to thump Colorado 55-17. USC eclipsed 40 points for the eighth clip this season, tied with Oregon for the astir successful FBS.
But USC, to nary responsibility of its own, bushed different atrocious team, which the Trojans person spent astir of the play doing. As the large Jon Wilner pointed out, USC's 7 Pac-12 wins person travel against teams with a combined league grounds of 14-36. Only 2 of those teams, Oregon State and Washington State, person winning records. Oregon State should reenter the committee's rankings Tuesday night, but USC's champion triumph was a 17-14 squeaker implicit the Beavers contempt a 4-0 borderline successful takeaways.
Right now, the Trojans are buoyed much by a large nonaccomplishment -- they fell 43-42 astatine Utah aft the Utes scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion successful the last infinitesimal -- than thing other successful their profile. The Pac-12 is simply a much-improved conference, but USC has played lone 1 of the league's genuinely beardown teams, Utah, and lost. The Trojans yet get profile-boosting opportunities this week against UCLA and adjacent week versus Notre Dame.
But astatine this moment, Clemson has the stronger wide résumé. The Tigers are undefeated successful ACC play with 5 victories against teams with winning records. Clemson has 3 wins against teams that were ranked successful the AP canvass erstwhile it faced them, and it conscionable bushed surging Louisville by 15 connected Saturday. There's nary uncertainty Clemson has an uglier nonaccomplishment than USC, arsenic the Tigers ne'er challenged Notre Dame successful a 35-14 roadworthy setback, starring manager Dabo Swinney to admit, "This was an ass-kicking, period." But the Tigers person much coagulated wins, including an Oct. 15 triumph astatine Florida State that looks amended each week.
Both teams person had immoderate constrictive victories. Clemson has won 3 games by six points oregon fewer, but each were against teams either ranked astatine the clip oregon ranked now. USC has 3 wins by 8 points oregon less but lone 1 against a presently ranked team. The Trojans struggled to propulsion distant from Arizona and Cal, allowing a full of 72 points and 1,012 yards successful those wins.
There's not a monolithic spread betwixt these teams, but CFP rankings are snapshots of the existent landscape. USC is being rewarded much for a nonaccomplishment and dominating atrocious teams, portion Clemson has compiled a bigger and amended radical of wins. USC has the closing agelong to cement itself supra Clemson, but that clip isn't now. -- Adam Rittenberg
ESPN reporters' top-four picks
Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Tennessee
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
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