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The results from a chaotic Week 10 volition origin immoderate shuffling astatine the apical of the College Football Playoff enactment committee's rankings, arsenic No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson some lost.
The doorway to No. 4 is unfastened for undefeated TCU ... oregon is it?
There person been 3 times successful the CFP epoch that a squad has mislaid successful the regular play and remained successful the enactment committee's apical 4 the pursuing week. It happened successful 2014 erstwhile No. 1 Mississippi State mislaid and dropped to No. 4, successful 2016 erstwhile No. 2 Clemson mislaid and fell to No. 4 and successful 2016 erstwhile No. 3 Michigan mislaid but held beardown astatine No. 3 the adjacent week.
While we'll beryllium watching to spot however acold Tennessee tumbles aft its nonaccomplishment to Georgia, nary squad oregon league should instrumentality a bigger deed erstwhile the caller rankings are released Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) than the ACC and Clemson, which mislaid successful embarrassing manner astatine Notre Dame connected Saturday.
Here are the cardinal questions the committee volition reply Tuesday night. Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks astatine what will happen arsenic opposed to what should happen, and our assemblage shot reporters measurement successful with their picks for the apical four.
Six cardinal questions to ticker for
1. Will Georgia beryllium the undisputed No. 1? Well, the Bulldogs surely should beryllium -- and this determination became overmuch easier for the group, which struggled past week to abstracted Tennessee, Ohio State and Georgia astatine No. 1. There were committee members who felt powerfully astir each 3 teams for the apical spot, but determination should beryllium much statement aft Georgia thoroughly outplayed the Vols, the committee's No. 1 squad from a week ago, successful a 27-13 win. Georgia has supplanted Tennessee for the apical spot successful ESPN's Strength of Record metric, arsenic the Bulldogs besides person a ascendant triumph against No. 8 Oregon.
"Georgia is an exceedingly coagulated squad that the committee truly likes and felt bully astir who they are," enactment committee seat Boo Corrigan said past week. "Obviously the ascendant triumph astatine the opening of the play against Oregon turned a batch of heads."
Saturday's triumph should lone make further separation betwixt Georgia and the remainder of the contenders.
2. Can TCU apical Tennessee? With the losses by Tennessee and Clemson, the timing is close for the committee to reward the undefeated Frogs, who were No. 7 past week, and slot them successful the apical four. It's not a given, though, due to the fact that Tennessee inactive trumps TCU with its high-quality wins implicit LSU and Alabama, and the enactment committee had questions astir TCU's defense, which Corrigan said "struggled to support points disconnected the committee astatine times." (The aforesaid could beryllium said for Tennessee, however.)
On Saturday, TCU erstwhile again had to travel from down -- this clip against a Texas Tech squad that fell beneath .500 with the loss. TCU has besides been wounded by a downward spiral successful the remainder of the Big 12, arsenic the Frogs' tally of 4 consecutive wins implicit perchance ranked opponents (vs. Oklahoma, astatine Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State and vs. Kansas State) present looks little impressive. All of those opponents person astatine slightest 3 losses and lone K-State figures to beryllium successful this week's apical 25. The committee doesn't conscionable look astatine wins against apical 25 teams, though. It besides sees wins against opponents supra .500 arsenic respectable, and each 4 of those teams inactive person winning records.
Tennessee, meanwhile, hasn't mislaid what impressed the committee capable to gain the No. 1 spot successful the archetypal place: its wins against Alabama and LSU, and the second looks amended than ever.
3. Speaking of LSU, however precocious volition the two-loss Tigers be? LSU should beryllium hovering astir No. 7 arsenic the highest-ranked two-loss team, but inactive down Tennessee due to the fact that the committee volition grant the head-to-head result. That wasn't beauteous for the Tigers arsenic the Vols pummeled LSU 40-13 successful Baton Rouge connected Oct. 8. Even with LSU seemingly retired of the representation for now, don't discount the Tigers from yet finishing successful the apical 4 if they tin tally the array and triumph the SEC. No two-loss squad has ever made the playoff, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. If LSU wins out, it would person defeated Alabama and SEC East champion Georgia on the way, helping to compensate for its season-opening 24-23 nonaccomplishment to Florida State (which could present beryllium a CFP apical 25 team) and that disfigured nonaccomplishment to Tennessee.
LSU should triumph its last 3 regular-seasons games astatine Arkansas, vs. UAB and astatine Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-13. Any Power 5 squad that tin punctuate its résumé with a league rubric volition person the committee's attention, and it's 1 tiebreaker the radical volition usage erstwhile choosing betwixt teams they deliberation are different comparable.
4. Who has the edge, Tennessee oregon Oregon? This is an under-the-radar storyline that could beryllium captious connected Selection Day. If the Ducks tally the array and decorativeness arsenic a one-loss Pac-12 champion and the Vols decorativeness 11-1, this could beryllium a immense statement successful the committee gathering room. Where these teams are ranked Tuesday volition beryllium the archetypal clue, arsenic they some person suffered their lone nonaccomplishment of the play to Georgia. The Vols and Ducks combined to people 16 points successful their games against the Dawgs -- and they've scored astatine slightest 30 points against everyone other they've played this year. Oregon has won 8 consecutive games since that season-opening debacle, and the committee has noticed.
"I deliberation the triumph implicit UCLA has gone a agelong way," Corrigan said past week. "They've scored astatine slightest 41 points since that crippled and ... Bo Nix has had a large season. As we looked astatine it, evidently that archetypal game, what they've been capable to bash since that time, I think, has truly turned the committee's head."
Here's the imaginable headache for the committee: LSU wins the SEC, but Tennessee is sitting determination with a convincing triumph implicit the SEC champion contempt not adjacent playing for the title. And one-loss Oregon wins the Pac-12 title. Who gets the nod?
5. How acold bash Clemson, Wake Forest and Syracuse sink? This is the nightmare script for the ACC, which is easy successful the worst playoff presumption of immoderate Power 5 conference. Wake Forest and Syracuse, which are 2 of Clemson's champion wins, should driblet retired of the committee's apical 25 aft suffering their 3rd losses. Clemson can't beryllium dismissed from the speech entirely, arsenic it could inactive decorativeness arsenic a one-loss ACC champion, but it's wide the Tigers aren't playing similar a top-four team.
The ACC would request implicit chaos successful the different league rubric games to garner superior consideration, but the committee liked thing astir Clemson, capable to person the Tigers astatine No. 4 past week. Their champion justification for that determination was that Clemson was the lone squad to person 3 wins against CFP apical 25 opponents, and that went retired the model Saturday with the performances by Wake Forest and Syracuse.
6. Is Notre Dame ranked? If the Irish marque their archetypal quality successful the apical 25, it could assistance Ohio State and one-loss USC. Oregon is the Pac-12's champion anticipation astatine a playoff team, but it's not the lone one-loss squad inactive successful the mix. Both USC and UCLA would beryllium considered if they tin adhd the Pac-12 rubric to their résumé. USC hosts Notre Dame connected Nov. 26 successful its regular-season finale -- close aft a roadworthy travel to UCLA. Those could beryllium back-to-back games against ranked opponents that either catapult USC into the apical 4 oregon derail its hopes entirely.
Ohio State's triumph against Notre Dame successful the play opener has helped abstracted the Buckeyes from Michigan, which has been criticized successful the committee gathering country for its anemic spot of schedule. While the enactment committee holds the Wolverines successful precocious regard, it's wide that if Michigan doesn't bushed Ohio State successful the regular-season finale, it astir apt won't person capable connected its résumé to decorativeness successful the apical four. Its champion triumph would beryllium against Penn State. Should Ohio State suffer to the Wolverines, though, it would person astatine slightest a somewhat amended accidental of information successful portion due to the fact that of its triumph against the Irish, particularly if Notre Dame tin find a mode to triumph out.
What the committee volition -- and should -- do
I warned them past week. The enactment committee members could person work close present wherefore ranking Clemson up of TCU carried risk. They did it anyway, slotting the Tigers 3 spots up of the Horned Frogs, and paid the price. Maybe they'll perceive this time.
What the CFP enactment committee volition do: Leave TCU retired of the apical four
What the CFP enactment committee should do: Include TCU successful the apical four
NC State diversion manager Boo Corrigan, and each CFP enactment committee seat earlier him, has a mostly thankless job. Every week until the last ranking, Corrigan indispensable warrant the committee's reasoning for slotting teams successful definite places, adjacent if the rationale is antithetic and arguably hypocritical.
Last week, the committee ranked TCU astatine No. 7 due to the fact that of its dilatory starts and perceived deficiency of wide dominance.
"You look astatine TCU, and again we're looking for a balanced team, discourtesy and defense, they person gotten down successful immoderate games," Corrigan said.
Never caput that LSU, ranked No. 10 successful the archetypal apical 25, had started dilatory successful astir each game: Florida State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss. Like TCU, LSU had recovered ways to rally and station come-from-behind wins. Unlike TCU, LSU had mislaid 2 of those contests.
The Horned Frogs connected Saturday played close into the enactment committee's cognition of them, trailing 4-4 Texas Tech astatine the extremity of the archetypal and 3rd quarters earlier pulling distant successful the fourth. TCU has trailed successful the 2nd fractional successful 4 of its six league wins. Even though 2 undefeated top-four teams mislaid past week (No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson), the committee has leeway to permission retired TCU again. You tin perceive it now: Tennessee had been much ascendant until it faced Georgia; Oregon has been much ascendant since it faced Georgia.
But TCU perfectly deserves top-four inclusion aft its archetypal 9-0 commencement since 2010, erstwhile the squad ran the array and won the Rose Bowl. The reason? Few FBS teams are amended finishers.
TCU has outscored opponents 180-102 successful the 2nd fractional and 104-48 successful the 4th quarter. The Frogs won by lone 10 Saturday, but had a thrust stall astatine Texas Tech's 4-yard enactment with 3:34 left, which allowed the Red Raiders to people erstwhile more. The last easy could person been 41-17 alternatively of 34-24.
Teams should get recognition for in-game adjustments and dominating the astir captious quarter. TCU besides has the equilibrium Corrigan wants, adjacent if it's not ever displayed successful accepted ways. The Frogs person scored 30 oregon much points successful each crippled (UCLA is the lone different FBS squad to bash so). They've allowed a full of 30 points successful the 2nd fractional successful their past 4 games combined.
TCU apt needs much implicit performances to stay undefeated, opening this week astatine Texas. But rallies and resiliency can't beryllium selective traits erstwhile evaluating teams. They've go TCU's individuality this season. At this moment, the Frogs perfectly beryllium successful the apical four. -- Adam Rittenberg
Staff picks for apical four
Here's a look astatine however ESPN's assemblage shot reporters spot the existent playoff picture.
Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Tennessee 4 TCU
Chris Low: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Michigan, 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Tom VanHaaren: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
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