Why Aaron Rodgers' contract limits Packers' options, and what could come next

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- At the time, it seemed similar an casual call: If Aaron Rodgers wanted to instrumentality to the Green Bay Packers for an 18th play -- and perchance a 19th and 20th -- past wide manager Brian Gutekunst and declaration negotiator Russ Ball would bash the deal.

The effect was a three-year, $150 cardinal declaration hold signed this past March that contained massive amounts of guaranteed money.

Even aft the Packers’ 5th consecutive nonaccomplishment this season, a 15-9 defeat to the struggling Detroit Lions connected Sunday, Rodgers said helium has not second-guessed his determination to return.

“When I decided to travel back, it was all-in, and I don’t marque decisions and past hindsight, 20/20, person regrets astir large decisions similar that,” Rodgers said.

What if the Packers don’t consciousness the aforesaid way?

The squad has immoderate pugnacious decisions to marque successful presumption of Rodgers' aboriginal with the team, 2020 first-round backmost Jordan Love and their wage headdress owed to the contract. Because of the intricacies of the deal, it would beryllium hard for the Packers to determination connected from Rodgers aft this play if the determination were theirs unsocial -- particularly if it were earlier June 1 of 2023.

That’s successful ample portion due to the fact that Rodgers has a $58.3 cardinal enactment bonus successful 2023 that is afloat guaranteed. It’s an enactment because, according to a root acquainted with the contract, it tin beryllium exercised by the Packers anytime betwixt the archetypal time of the 2023 league twelvemonth successful March and the time earlier the Packers’ archetypal crippled of the regular season. The enactment bonus makes up astir of his 2023 pay, totaling $59.515 cardinal (including a $1.165 cardinal basal wage and a $50,000 offseason workout bonus). The timing is important due to the fact that if the Packers were to commercialized him, they’d privation the squad that trades for him to wage it.

Then there’s the Love factor. The Packers indispensable determine by May whether to workout the quarterback’s fifth-year enactment for 2024 (which would beryllium worthy astir $20 cardinal afloat guaranteed). Earlier this year, Gutekunst told the Green Bay Press-Gazette that it would beryllium “very hard to envision” a script successful which Rodgers and Love are some connected the Packers' roster successful 2024.

At this point, Gutekunst and manager Matt LaFleur person not seen capable of Love successful crippled enactment (42-of-71 for 484 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs successful 8 games) to cognize whether he’s a viable replacement for Rodgers -- whether it’s successful 2023 oregon later.

“I deliberation they person to play Jordan Love erstwhile they’re eliminated and here’s wherefore -- and it has a small thing to bash with my past with the Packers,” said ESPN NFL beforehand bureau insider Mike Tannenbaum, a erstwhile GM who’s possibly champion known to Packers fans for making the 2008 commercialized to bring Brett Favre to the Jets.

“I heard successful [then-Packers scout] John Schneider’s dependable and [then-Packers GM] Ted Thompson’s dependable that they knew what they had successful Aaron Rodgers erstwhile they were trading Favre to us.”

According to Tannenbaum, the worst-case script is not that Love isn’t a bully player, it’s that he’s a bully subordinate for different team, which is wherefore helium said they request to cognize by the extremity of this play what they person successful Love.

“At the extremity of the day, Brian and Matt, their work is the adjacent 10 years,” Tannenbaum said. “They’re not going to triumph the rubric this year, truthful arsenic hard arsenic it is to look Aaron Rodgers successful the oculus and say, ‘We’re benching you,’ the alternate is helium comes backmost and they commercialized Jordan Love to [a squad like] the Falcons for a third-round prime and Jordan Love is simply a consequential starter successful the league for the adjacent 10 years.

“Then Aaron graduates aft the ’23 season, and present you’re sitting determination with nary hope, nary program and your young quarterback, with whom this full happening got started, is crushing it successful Atlanta, which you can’t person happen.”

Here are the imaginable scenarios for Rodgers and the Packers, and however it would interaction their wage cap:

Rodgers plays for the Packers adjacent season

Because of the aforementioned enactment bonus and guaranteed money, it was wide assumed erstwhile Rodgers signed the woody that helium would play done the 2023 season.

In 2024, his $49.25 cardinal successful wage and bonuses is guaranteed lone against wounded (and not a diminution successful his accomplishment oregon if helium is released for salary-cap reasons). It would go afloat guaranteed if helium is connected the Packers’ 90-man roster connected the 5th time pursuing the Super Bowl played aft the 2023 regular season.

If the declaration is not adjusted further, Rodgers would number $31,623,570 connected the Packers’ 2023 wage cap, which is little than $3 cardinal much than his headdress complaint this season. The enactment bonus would really beryllium paid successful 2 installments: $28.3 cardinal wrong 10 days of the enactment being exercised and $30 cardinal connected oregon earlier Sept. 30. The timing of the payments does not interaction the headdress charge.

Rodgers retires this offseason

This is the easiest -- but seemingly slightest apt -- script due to the fact that Rodgers would forfeit the $58.3 cardinal enactment bonus and immoderate further compensation from the deal.

In the improbable lawsuit Rodgers would locomotion distant from that money, the Packers would apt support him connected the roster done June 1 for headdress purposes. At that point, they could dispersed retired the remaining proration of his signing bonus implicit the 2023 and 2024 wage caps, meaning his headdress complaint for adjacent play would beryllium somewhat little than $16 million.

Two caller backmost retirements were handled that way. Drew Brees retired successful March 2021, but due to the fact that his status did not go authoritative until aft June 1, the New Orleans Saints kept his $12.225 cardinal complaint connected their 2021 cap done that time earlier it was reduced by $1.1 cardinal aft June 1. Ben Roethlisberger retired this past January, but his paperwork was expected to beryllium delayed until aft June 1 arsenic good for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ headdress purposes.

Rodgers gets released

This is the slightest apt scenario, particularly earlier June 1, due to the fact that they would inactive person to wage Rodgers the enactment bonus and his 2023 basal salary.

They would besides person to number much than $99 cardinal successful dormant wealth connected their 2023 cap, which is untenable. Waiting until aft June 1 would really supply a nett salary-cap savings of $50,000, adjacent though the dead-money deed would beryllium much than $31.5 cardinal successful 2023 and much than treble that successful 2024.

It would besides mean the Packers would person nary compensation (e.g., draught picks) if Rodgers were to play for different squad aft his release.

Rodgers gets traded

A commercialized would person akin ramifications for their wage headdress to what would hap if the Packers chopped Rodgers, depending connected whether helium were traded earlier oregon aft the 2023 enactment bonus was exercised and whether it happened earlier oregon aft June 1.

If the Packers commercialized him, they astir apt would bash it earlier they paid his enactment bonus. However, the squad that acquired him would instrumentality connected the remainder of his contract. Unlike erstwhile players are released earlier June 1 but tin beryllium designated arsenic a post-June 1 merchandise for headdress purposes, trades consummated earlier June 1 cannot beryllium counted arsenic post-June 1 moves.

Just however overmuch of a headdress deed the Packers would instrumentality would beryllium connected the timing of the deal, but according to OverTheCap.com, it would scope from betwixt $40.3 cardinal (pre-June 1) and $15.8 cardinal (post-June 1). In the post-June 1 scenario, the Packers besides would person to number $24.4 cardinal connected their 2024 cap.

That’s wherefore successful 2021, the Atlanta Falcons waited until June 6 to commercialized receiver Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans. It allowed Atlanta to divided Jones’ dormant wealth implicit 2 salary-cap years alternatively of one.

One root acquainted with the declaration believes the champion mode to commercialized Rodgers, particularly earlier June 1, would beryllium for a subordinate with a akin declaration due to the fact that of each the dormant wealth progressive and suggested a subordinate similar Russell Wilson would acceptable that description.

“The lone existent mode to commercialized him earlier June 1 is for different subordinate with a atrocious contract,” the root said. “And that won’t happen.”