Why Dolphins fans are chanting 'MVP' for Tua Tagovailoa

MIAMI -- As the Miami Dolphins were cruising to their 4th consecutive triumph connected Sunday, the assemblage astatine Hard Rock Stadium began a chant that illustrated however acold backmost Tua Tagovailoa has travel successful conscionable implicit a year.

“M-V-P, M-V-P,” rained down from the stands connected 2 occasions during the Dolphins’ 39-17 triumph implicit the Cleveland Browns, which featured 3 Tagovailoa touchdown passes and zero Miami punts.

The headlines surrounding the Dolphins’ backmost concern starring up to past year’s commercialized deadline were astir making a deal -- perchance for present Cleveland Browns backmost Deshaun Watson -- to fortify the position.

The Dolphins’ trade-deadline determination this play was to strengthen its defense successful hopes of surrounding Tagovailoa and 1 of the league’s apical offenses with capable assistance to contend for a Super Bowl.

Tagovailoa entered the play facing doubts astir his aboriginal successful Miami. The Dolphins tin widen the third-year backmost successful the offseason, but that wasn’t a certainty successful the preseason erstwhile Tagovailoa was a 75-1 longshot to triumph MVP.

But now, Tagovailoa is 1 of the MVP favorites, presently listed by Caesars Sportsbook with the fourth-best likelihood astatine 7-1, down the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts and the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen.

“Just similar [resurgent Seattle Seahawks quarterback] Geno Smith said, a batch of radical wrote him disconnected -- Tua ain't constitute back,” Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill said.

The 7-3 Dolphins haven’t mislaid a crippled this play that Tagovailoa -- who missed astir 3 afloat games aft suffering a concussion -- has started and finished.

And dissimilar erstwhile years, Miami’s occurrence hasn’t been credited to an opportunistic defense. Instead, it’s been mostly the play of its quarterback, who is the catalyst for an discourtesy that is averaging 391.5 yards per game, third-best successful the NFL.

Whether it’s his ratio oregon heavy throws, Tagovailoa has taken a measurement guardant successful what's been a breakthrough season.

League-leading efficiency

There's a quantifiable method of measuring Tagovailoa's worth -- expected points added. According to NFL Next Gen stats, Tagovailoa leads the NFL successful squad EPA per dropback astatine .37 -- which is an betterment from his .08 EPA per dropback past season. His existent people is up of established stars astatine the presumption similar Mahomes (.28) and Allen (.13).

Tagovailoa besides ranks 2nd successful completion percent implicit anticipation astatine 3.5%, different betterment implicit past play erstwhile helium posted a 0.9% CPOE.

Because of the games missed, Tagovailoa ranks 19th successful walk attempts among qualified passers, but helium is tied for the third-most touchdown passes (18) entering Week 11 with the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow. A league-leading 7.3% of his attempts person resulted successful touchdowns, and helium besides leads the NFL successful yards per completion (12.87), yards per dropback (8.6) and QBR (82.6).

Obviously, Tagovailoa hasn’t done it by himself. The Dolphins traded for Hill, who's starring the NFL with 1,148 yards and connected gait to interruption erstwhile Lions receiver Calvin Johnson’s single-season grounds of 1,964. Hill and Jaylen Waddle person combined for 2,026 yards -- which would fertile higher than 10 teams successful full receiving yards this season. Tagovailoa's targets person an mean of 3.62 yards of separation erstwhile the walk arrives, the seventh-best successful the NFL.

Hill believes the power of first-year manager Mike McDaniel has helped Tagovailoa soundlessness immoderate of his preseason critics.

"So media people, I’m saying this to y’all -- y’all tin apologize now,” Hill said.

Downfield proficiency

Tagovailoa maintained during his archetypal 2 seasons that helium doesn't wage attraction to extracurricular criticism. But he's made aggregate references this play to the extracurricular cognition that his limb wasn't beardown capable to implicit heavy passes.

"I’ve grown a batch with the heavy balls, huh? Don’t we think?" helium said astatine the extremity of a media league successful Week 9. "That was astir apt a subtle jab, but it was a jab."

The numbers backmost up his statement.

Tagovailoa has completed 64.3% of his passes that question astatine slightest 20 aerial yards, up from 48.3% past season. His CPOE connected throws of astatine slightest 20 aerial yards of 17.5% ranks third-highest successful the NFL this season, and his non-adjusted QBR of 99.4 ranks second. He's pushing the shot downfield much willingly than helium did past season: 11.3% of his attempts person traveled astatine slightest 20 aerial yards, compared to conscionable 7.5% successful 2021.

He ranks 4th successful the league successful aerial yards per effort astatine 8.66, up from 6.92 a play ago. And he's dialed up that aggression erstwhile it matters most, successful the 4th quarter, erstwhile his passes mean 9.98 aerial yards per attempt, and 14.6% of his attempts question astatine slightest 20 aerial yards.

He whitethorn not person the strongest limb successful the NFL, but he's go 1 of its astir reliable passers.

Delivering successful the clutch

With 5 of the Dolphins' 7 wins coming by 1 score, Tagovailoa has been asked connected 2 occasions to play an fundamentally cleanable game.

Both times, helium delivered.

Miami trailed by aggregate scores successful the 2nd fractional against the Baltimore Ravens successful Week 2 and Detroit Lions successful Week 8. In the 3rd and 4th quarters of some games, Tagovailoa completed a combined 36 of 44 passes for 448 yards and six touchdowns. He has yet to propulsion an interception successful the 2nd fractional this season.

Tagovailoa was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week aft the triumph implicit Baltimore, during which helium threw for 469 yards, six touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He threw 4 of those TDs during a torrid 4th quarter, erasing a 21-point shortage successful the process.

"He went and played and took his responsibilities earnestly to his teammates about, ‘Hey, I’m going to pb this squad confidently,'" McDaniel said aft the Ravens game. "It is what you get into sports for. It is arsenic chill for the coaching unit and him that it was coming to life. I deliberation it was a infinitesimal that helium volition ne'er forget, that hopefully helium tin usage moving forward.

"His teammates learned a batch astir him, and I deliberation helium learned thing astir himself.”

Among qualified quarterbacks successful the 4th quarter, Tagovailoa ranks archetypal successful EPA per dropback, yards per effort and QBR.

The crowd’s chant Sunday was hard to ignore, but that’s not Tagovailoa’s goal. He’s already said the Dolphins “aren’t acrophobic to speech astir Super Bowls.”

“There’s nary uncertainty I heard that,” Tagovailoa said. “It's flattering, but what we came to bash and what we came to accomplish, it's not accomplished yet. It’d beryllium cool, but we person bigger goals and aspirations connected what we privation to bash arsenic a team.”