The National Women's Soccer League is known for parity, and knockout tournaments are ripe with upset. Enter: the NWSL playoffs.
Six teams stay successful contention for the NWSL Championship aft the league's astir melodramatic playoff contention to date. The apical 2 -- OL Reign and the Portland Thorns -- earned byes to the semifinals, with the Reign winning the NWSL Shield by 1 constituent contempt not finishing a azygous week astatine the apical of the array earlier the last circular of play. Teams 3 done 5 each finished adjacent connected points and had their playoff seeding decided by tiebreakers.
When teams instrumentality the tract connected Sunday, successful the archetypal circular of the playoffs, it volition besides people the NWSL's archetypal games since the nationalist merchandise of erstwhile U.S. lawyer wide Sally Yates' study connected systemic maltreatment successful the league. Much similar past year's NWSL playoffs, erstwhile maltreatment allegations astir the league first emerged, players transportation an unthinkable value into the astir important weeks of their full seasons.
Some teams besides look large wounded questions heading into the postseason. Combined, each these factors make an unpredictable bracket ahead. So, let's look astatine wherefore each of the six playoff teams volition triumph the NWSL Championship connected Oct. 29 -- and wherefore each volition not.
OL Reign
No. 1 seed
Record: 11-4-7, 40 pts.
Round 1: Bye
Key players: FW Megan Rapinoe, MF Jess Fishlock, DF Sofia Huerta
Why the Reign volition triumph the NWSL title
Playoffs are astir form, and this is the hottest squad successful the league close now. The Reign won 4 consecutive games and went 7 unbeaten to extremity the regular season. Their tally culminated with claiming the Shield connected the last play of the regular season, eclipsing rivals Portland Thorns by 1 constituent aft the Thorns played to a astonishing 3-3 gully astatine last-place NJ/NY Gotham FC a fewer hours earlier that evening.
Form extends to idiosyncratic players, too, and they are portion of the club's longer story. Megan Rapinoe remains a headliner of this radical -- each her 7 goals and 4 assists successful league play were tallied since the commencement of August. Rapinoe, Jess Fishlock (the 2021 NWSL MVP) and Lauren Barnes are the 3 remaining players from the Reign's inaugural play successful 2013. They mislaid title games successful 2014 and 2015 erstwhile they were easy the champion squad successful the league implicit the afloat season, and they were upset astatine location successful past year's semifinal by the Washington Spirit.
If you bargain into the narratives astir teams of destiny, that 2021 Spirit squad -- rising supra the dysfunction of the nine disconnected the field -- perfectly was one. There's an statement that this Reign squad could be, too, fixed their agelong quest to triumph a archetypal title, contempt repeatedly coming close. Coach Laura Harvey is besides backmost successful charge, having overseen those erstwhile Reign teams that fell abbreviated successful the NWSL final.
This playoff run has an undeniable now-or-never feeling for this seasoned Reign group, which volition further motivate its core. As this latest unbeaten tally showed -- with melodramatic victories similar the 2-1 triumph successful Orlando, erstwhile Rapinoe scored the victor successful stoppage clip -- they cognize however to excavation for results.
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Rose Lavelle scored a stunning onslaught to assistance OL Reign assertion a thrilling 2-2 gully against Chicago Red Stars.
Why the Reign won't triumph the NWSL title
History cuts some ways. Even casting speech those disappointments of 2014 and 2015, the Reign are successful a precise akin presumption arsenic past year.
In 2021, they surged precocious successful the play and fell conscionable abbreviated of catching Portland to triumph the Shield. They took the No. 2 seed, which inactive afforded them a bye, and waited for the Spirit to get successful Tacoma, Washington. Field conditions were truthful atrocious that players did not know, adjacent a fewer hours earlier kickoff, whether the crippled would beryllium postponed. Ashley Sanchez's deft spot from adjacent scope served arsenic the game-winner for the Spirit, and that was the extremity of that mentation of the Reign, which saw Dzsenifer Marozsan and Eugenie Le Sommer instrumentality to genitor nine Lyon.
Harvey says she learned from that moment. For one, those conditions volition not beryllium repeated. The Reign near down their wretched, converted shot tract successful Tacoma for Lumen Field successful Seattle this season. Harvey said earlier this period that the upwind that full week earlier the 2021 semifinal killed the team's rhythm.
Still, she and the Reign request to negociate a bye week that follows an planetary break, meaning a afloat 3 weeks off. For a squad riding momentum, a agelong interruption is not needfully perfect adjacent if the bye gives their halfway of internationals a accidental to remainder aft those duties.
The Portland Thorns
No. 2 seed
Record: 10-3-9, 39 pts.
Round 1: Bye
Key players: FW Sophia Smith, FW Morgan Weaver, MF Sam Coffey
Why the Thorns volition triumph the NWSL title
Portland scored much goals than immoderate different squad successful the NWSL this regular play -- aft the North Carolina Courage, who did not marque the playoffs, the next-closest squad scored 14 less goals. Sophia Smith's 14-goal haul is simply a large crushed for that, and she has a morganatic lawsuit for MVP and is 1 of the X-factors of the full playoff field. The Thorns' fluidity, however, is what makes them truthful good.
Smith is 1 of 14 Thorns players to tally a extremity successful the 2022 regular season. Fellow guardant Morgan Weaver somewhat softly added 7 goals and 3 assists chiefly successful a winger role, and attacking midfielder Hina Sugita (five goals, 4 assists) is 1 of the champion caller additions of the season, league-wide. Portland is simply a squad that scores successful buckets and looks defensively dependable crossed the pitch, from a accordant backmost 4 (after a mid-season power from a three-back) to Sam Coffey's antiaircraft midfield enactment screening successful beforehand of them.
Last year, the Thorns hosted the Chicago Red Stars successful the semifinals and failed to interruption down their opponents' debased block, losing 2-0 connected a brace of counterattacks. The thought that this Thorns squad would beryllium unopen retired is far-fetched. Portland was unopen retired lone 3 times this regular season. The Thorns tin score, and goals unfastened up games -- which is besides to their advantage.
Why the Thorns won't triumph the NWSL title
There is simply a blueprint for a defensively dependable crippled program that shuts down the Thorns, and it was provided by San Diego Wave FC connected Aug. 28. The Wave went connected the roadworthy to Providence Park, played their signature, defensively compact, counter-attacking soccer, and won 2-0. Nothing astir the attack was astonishing (right down to the Route 1 extremity finished by Alex Morgan, disconnected organisation from goalkeeper Kailen Sheridan), and that mightiness beryllium the astir concerning discourse from that crippled for the Thorns, who struggled done August earlier getting backmost connected way astatine the extremity of the season.
Guess who mightiness beryllium coming backmost to Providence Park? Portland gets the victor of Sunday's San Diego-Chicago game, meaning it volition either beryllium a 2021 semifinal rematch oregon the 5th rendition this twelvemonth (all competitions) of Portland-San Diego. The Wave took those 3 points connected the roadworthy successful August and, successful their June gathering successful San Diego, erased a 2-0 shortage up to the 81st infinitesimal to gully 2-2. San Diego -- astatine slightest astatine afloat spot -- matches up good with Portland.
The different unfortunate world present is the affectional load that players are dealing with league-wide -- it mightiness beryllium felt astir tangibly successful Portland fixed the club's prominence successful the Yates report and its hosting of a playoff game. Thorns defender and U.S. skipper Becky Sauerbrunn said past week that each executives, including Thorns proprietor Merritt Paulson, who enabled maltreatment "should beryllium gone." Portland supporters person called for Paulson to merchantability the team, a connection fans person doubled down connected adjacent aft helium announced connected Tuesday that helium would measurement down arsenic CEO of the club.
Smith said that she hopes fans volition inactive amusement up for the crippled "because that's 1 of the affirmative things we person near successful Portland." How fans take to protestation the enactment volition alteration by individual, whether that's by skipping the crippled altogether oregon demonstrating wrong the stadium. Either way, it's going to beryllium an affectional country successful Portland connected Oct. 23 for that semifinal, and the players who person been disregarded and mistreated for truthful agelong are going to consciousness that the most.
San Diego Wave
No. 3 seed
Record: 10-6-6, 36 pts.
Round 1: hosts Chicago, Sunday astatine 10 p.m. ET
Key players: FW Alex Morgan, DF Naomi Girma, MF Emily van Egmond
Why the Wave volition triumph the NWSL title
Over the full assemblage of the season, this was the champion league's champion team. That's subjective, sure, and they finished 3rd by mode of a superior extremity quality successful a three-way necktie connected 36 points. San Diego, however, spent 13 weeks atop the array and lone fell abbreviated of the Shield connected the penultimate play of play. Casey Stoney enactment successful a coach-of-the-year run successful her archetypal season successful the league, guiding an enlargement team, and the Wave established some a wide and effectual identity. They support good and people successful transition, a tried-and-true look for occurrence successful the NWSL. Alex Morgan acceptable the gait with 15 goals, earning her league top-scorer honors and possibly the MVP grant successful her champion nine play yet.
Defensively, San Diego has been fantabulous passim astir of the play adjacent arsenic unit changed. The Wave's 21 goals against are lone bettered by the Reign (19) and they've done truthful with Kailen Sheridan stopping shots (including redeeming 3 of six penalties faced) and stellar performances from center-back Naomi Girma, who isn't conscionable the best rookie successful the league, but enactment successful the champion play of immoderate center-back.
Overlooked successful the successes of Morgan, Girma and Sheridan is the consistency of antiaircraft midfielder Emily van Egmond, who played astir each infinitesimal of the play adjacent portion juggling duties with Australia and the important question that comes with those duties.
Why the Wave won't triumph the NWSL title
Injuries. Form is 1 thing, and San Diego's is fine, adjacent if the Wave are not arsenic red-hot arsenic the Reign. The bigger occupation is the uncertainty astir cardinal players up the spine of the team.
Morgan missed the team's past 2 league games with what the Wave lone described arsenic a near genu injury, and she did not articulation the U.S. for its two games successful Europe against England and Spain. Stoney had antecedently described Morgan's lack arsenic precautionary, but it's unclear precisely however steadfast the prima striker is. Make nary mistake: San Diego needs her. Morgan scored 15 of the team's 32 goals.
Add to that what was expected to beryllium a longer-term wounded to center-back Abby Dahlkemper sustained successful precocious September, and an ankle wounded to cardinal midfielder Taylor Kornieck, and the biggest question is whether San Diego volition beryllium capable to tract the aforesaid squad that was truthful bully passim the regular season. Kornieck besides missed the U.S.' travel to Europe and the Wave's play finale aft a nasty ankle rotation a fewer weeks ago.
Houston Dash
No. 4 seed
Record: 10-6-6, 36 pts.
Round 1: hosts Kansas City, Sunday astatine 5 p.m. ET
Key players: FW Maria Sanchez, FW Ebony Salmon, DF Katie Naughton
Why the Dash volition triumph the NWSL title
For starters, the Dash are yet here. Eight years aft playing their inaugural NWSL season, they are yet successful the playoffs, ending a drought that mercilessly continued past twelvemonth erstwhile they dropped 3 consecutive games to extremity the play and miss the playoffs by a point, failing to people successful immoderate of those games.
This year, they person much violative firepower, an ironic connection considering the unexpected midseason departure to Aston Villa of longtime skipper Rachel Daly. Ebony Salmon is objective successful beforehand of goal, and her 9 goals successful 12 games since joining Houston mid-season talk to her talent. Nichelle Prince besides enactment successful 1 of her champion seasons yet and showed further versatility successful assorted roles.
Maria Sanchez is the game-changer, and her beingness connected this squad for the full play is the large quality from 2021. Sanchez joined the Dash successful June 2021 for 1 of the shortest loans possible, past committed to Houston full-time up of the 2022 season. Her 4 assists pb the team, and her quality to power the crippled from wide areas is simply a large vantage for Houston. If she tin get isolated successful 1-v-1 opportunities, the Dash volition find success.
Why the Dash won't triumph the NWSL title
The full conflict connected the flanks. The Dash look Kansas City to unfastened playoffs, and Kansas City's 3-5-2 gets the astir retired of wing-backs Hailie Mace and Kate Del Fava -- and they are apt to enactment important unit connected Houston's full-backs. The Dash's defence hasn't been atrocious this season, but it has been stretched astatine times, and Kansas City managed to antecedently execute that precocious manus some successful the regular play and Challenge Cup, winning 3 of 4 erstwhile meetings this year. If Sanchez is forced to screen defensively arsenic Kansas City gets forward, it volition bounds her power successful the attack.
There remains a question astir the champion cardinal midfield operation for Houston, too. Sophie Schmidt and Marisa Viggiano person been constants, but the 3rd subordinate astir them has rotated adjacent recently, specified that Kansas City's halfway attacking midfielder, Claire Lavogez and Lo'eau LaBonta, person the borderline close now.
Kansas City Current
No. 5 seed
Record: 10-6-6, 36 pts.
Round 1: astatine Houston, Sunday astatine 5 p.m. ET
Key players: MF Lo'eau LaBonta, MF Claire Lavogez, DF Elizabeth Ball
Why the Current volition triumph the NWSL title
Kansas City rattled disconnected a 13-game unbeaten tally passim the summertime that included each squad but the Thorns, who the Current drew 1-1 aft the streak was snapped with an ugly, 4-0 nonaccomplishment successful Chicago.
Lo'eau LaBonta enactment successful her champion play yet and arguably had the champion play of immoderate attacking midfielder successful the league, and Claire Lavogez complements her perfectly. Lavogez was 1 of the champion NWSL acquisitions from the summertime transportation window. Cece Kizer's accomplishment besides marked 1 of the champion trades of the season. Kizer's 7 goals are tied with LaBonta for astir connected the team, and she pairs with Kristen Hamilton successful specified a mode that determination is nary evident reply to marking 1 oregon the different retired of a game. Together, they've each created a balanced attack.
Elizabeth Ball besides anchors a backmost 3 that is typically hard to beat, and Kansas City's wing-backs person been the champion successful the league successful that peculiar strategy (which is likewise played by Chicago, successful a 3-4-3, and antecedently by Portland).
Why the Current won't triumph the NWSL title
One glaring lack is Desiree Scott, the squad skipper who was sent disconnected successful the regular-season finale for yellowish cards 4 minutes apart. It's a immense stroke to a squad that is greater than the sum of its parts, and 1 that operates connected good margins. The 3-5-2, and the unit wrong it, mostly person not changed overmuch done the year, and 9 of 10 victories from the regular play were by 1 goal. Kansas City finished with a extremity quality of zero. Each portion matters.
Scott's relation arsenic the antiaircraft midfielder successful that strategy -- arsenic the subordinate screening successful beforehand of the backmost 3 -- is essential. There is simply a crushed she is known arsenic "The Destroyer." Without her, Houston -- the Current's archetypal playoff hostile -- could find much opportunities to find Salmon successful space.
Alex Loera has been the backup antiaircraft midfielder successful Scott's absences this season, and that volition apt proceed against Houston. There is nary replacing Scott, however, and Loera's displacement to the No. 6 relation besides disrupts the chemistry of the backmost three. She has not started a crippled successful that presumption since July, erstwhile Scott was astatine World Cup qualifying with Canada. Scott's lack volition beryllium felt.
Chicago Red Stars
No. 6 seed
Record: 9-7-6, 33 pts.
Round 1: astatine San Diego, Sunday astatine 10 p.m. ET
Key players: FW Mallory Pugh, MF Vanessa DiBernardo, DF Tatumn Milazzo
Why the Red Stars volition triumph the NWSL title
Chicago mightiness beryllium the astir hard squad to work of the playoff bunch, and those inconsistencies led to the Red Stars warring their mode to the sixth and last playoff berth connected the last time of the regular season.
In elemental and evident terms, this is the Mallory Pugh show. No subordinate meant much to her squad this play than Pugh, whose 17 extremity involvements (11 goals, six assists) accounted for precisely fractional of Chicago's goals. She changes games with moments of idiosyncratic brilliance, and she keeps reminding everyone of that, similar she did with a stunning brace successful a 4-0 triumph implicit Kansas City connected Sept. 14 (when she besides provided work connected the different 2 goals). If Chicago is to marque a tally successful these playoffs, it volition beryllium connected Pugh's back.
Yuki Nagasato deserves recognition successful the attack, too, and her supporting relation to Pugh and its similarities to Nagasato's relation supporting Sam Kerr successful her 18-goal play successful 2019 should not spell unnoticed. Nor should the cardinal midfield enactment of Vanessa DiBernardo and Danielle Colaprico, 2 longtime Chicago players who person gone done the club's heartbreaks connected and disconnected the field. They are the anchors to (and engines for) this system.
Additionally, a contextual enactment alternatively than a crushed the Red Stars mightiness win: Chicago is different nine at the halfway of the Yates report and similar with Portland, the value of that could understandably impact performances. Red Stars players collectively issued a connection connected Monday calling for main proprietor Arnim Whisler to merchantability the team. Once again, determination are similarities to the 2021 Spirit, the squad that bushed Chicago successful past year's final. That Washington squad spent the playoffs calling for then-owner Steve Baldwin to merchantability the team. The players rallied astir themselves successful that moment. Perhaps Chicago tin bash the aforesaid this year.
— National Women's Soccer League (@NWSL) September 15, 2022Why the Red Stars won't triumph the NWSL title
Outside of Pugh, the extremity scoring truly dries up. Ella Stevens is the next-leading scorer with 4 goals, and among the Red Stars' apical six scorers are 3 defenders who get guardant connected acceptable pieces. Shut down Pugh and you tin unopen down the Red Stars. That is overmuch easier said than done, of course, and Chicago proved the mentation incorrect past year, picking up that immense 2-0 triumph successful the semifinal successful Portland without Pugh, who was successful COVID-19 protocols.
San Diego swept the play bid this twelvemonth and volition similar its likelihood of matching up player-for-player with Chicago's three-back, assuming Morgan is healthy. Seventeen-year-old Jaedyn Shaw scored the game-winner successful her debut successful July astatine Soldier Field, a 1-0 triumph for San Diego implicit Chicago.
Tatumn Milazzo and Zoe Morse person been large connected Chicago's backmost enactment this year, but they'll person to woody with defending the Wave's onslaught and besides trying to play retired of San Diego's effectual (and selective) precocious press, with the Wave astatine location astatine Snapdragon Stadium. That volition beryllium a unsafe equilibrium if they take to play retired connected the crushed and San Diego brings the pressure.
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