In sum, the adjacent fewer weeks could present the biggest shakeup to House enactment since the Republican Revolution of 1994, erstwhile the GOP claimed the enclosure aft defeating the sitting Democratic talker successful his reelection bid.
Across the Capitol, there’s little uncertainty but plentifulness of intrigue. Depending connected who wins, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell could look the archetypal protestation votes of his career. New Hampshire’s Republican nominee Don Bolduc has pledged not to enactment McConnell if helium defeats Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), and different candidates and senators person dodged the question.
McConnell is nevertheless wide expected to person the enactment of astir of the Senate GOP. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is successful a likewise harmless position, adjacent if Democrats suffer the enclosure connected Tuesday, aft exceeding expectations of what his enactment could execute successful a 50-50 Senate. Now, whom Schumer tin find to pb his run limb to triumph with a brutal 2024 battleground representation is different matter.
Here are POLITICO’s 5 storylines to ticker wrong the Capitol — aft each the legislature races are called.
House Dem ambitions travel to a head
The aboriginal of House Democratic leadership’s been a taboo subject for a agelong time. That’s astir to change.
While Pelosi signaled this would beryllium her past term, she’s spoken small of that committedness precocious arsenic she’s stayed focused connected pushing President Joe Biden’s priorities. Her longtime lieutenants, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, person revealed adjacent little astir their adjacent moves.
If the House so flips connected Tuesday, galore Democrats expect a large turnover successful their enactment ranks — a immense accidental for a younger procreation of Democrats. Multiple lawmakers described the contention for the No. 1 slot arsenic Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-N.Y.) to lose, though House Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is besides phoning colleagues astir his interest.
Aligned with Jeffries are Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), who are seeking to go his No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) is besides seeking enactment from colleagues for a imaginable effort to articulation leadership. The biggest question, though, is precisely how galore unfastened spots determination volition be.
The run to pb House Dem campaigns
For galore House Democrats, the slightest enviable enactment presumption volition beryllium moving the caucus’ run limb aft what’s been a pugnacious 2 years for its existent chief, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.).
Maloney has had a turbulent rhythm arsenic caput of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — astir recently, diverting enactment resources into his ain choky reelection, which he’s not guaranteed to triumph connected Tuesday. He hasn’t decided yet whether to marque different tally for the job.
Perhaps astir importantly, Maloney is the 2nd consecutive DCCC main whose ain reelection contention has proven tougher than expected aft the GOP poured successful resources, prompting a caucus-wide speech astir restructuring the campaign-armrole altogether.
So acold conscionable 2 Democrats, some Californians, person expressed involvement successful starring DCCC: Reps. Tony Cárdenas and Ami Bera. Neither has formally declared their run.
Cárdenas, who mislaid a adjacent contention against Maloney past cycle, crisscrossed the state this autumn with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ ace PAC. Bera spent the rhythm moving intimately with Maloney and the DCCC, taking complaint of its toughest races arsenic “frontline” chair.
The Senate’s tougher Dem campaigns challenge
Montana Sen. Steve Daines made the antithetic move to denote his intent to seat the National Republican Senatorial Committee mode backmost successful March. Democrats haven’t shown the aforesaid involvement successful their ain run committee’s opening.
There’s been immoderate buzz successful the caucus astir Sen. Alex Padilla (Calif.), who is up for reelection this twelvemonth but besides campaigning for susceptible incumbents similar Mark Kelly successful Arizona and Michael Bennet successful Colorado. Padilla hasn’t officially announced immoderate plans to question the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee helm.
Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) is wide praised among colleagues for piloting the run limb portion Schumer deals with the perils of the 50-50 Senate. Since Peters’ word does not extremity until 2026, helium could successful mentation seat the run committee different cycle. That’s not unheard-of: Schumer held the occupation for 4 consecutive years, arsenic did McConnell connected the GOP side.
Whether Democrats clasp the Senate yet could find who is consenting to face the party’s brutal 2024 battleground representation arsenic DSCC chief. If the enactment loses the enclosure connected Tuesday evening, the magnitude of defence it indispensable play successful 2 years successful reddish states similar West Virginia, Ohio and Montana makes it hard to ideate Democrats picking up galore seats.
Three for House GOP No. 3
McCarthy and Steve Scalise are the favorites for the talker and bulk person job, respectively, successful a GOP House. The contention to go their main ballot antagonistic is different matter.
Three salient Republicans are each vying for the GOP whip job, with National Republican Congressional Committee main Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), Republican Study Committee Chair Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), and Chief Deputy Whip Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) clashing implicit the position. Many members foretell it volition spell to a 2nd ballot, meaning the GOP volition clasp a last ballot among conscionable the apical 2 candidates.
Some Republicans judge that by virtuousness of starring the NRCC, Emmer volition commencement with a groundswell of enactment from incoming members if their enactment romps connected Tuesday. The fig of seats the GOP wins volition beryllium a large factor, and Emmer tin assertion recognition if helium boasts spot gains successful 2 consecutive cycles starring the NRCC.
But down the scenes, Ferguson and Banks person fostered relationships with those aforesaid high-performing candidates arsenic well. And Banks brings his ain Trump satellite cred to the contest.
The NRCC reins
Reps. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) and Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) are jockeying to instrumentality the baton astatine the House GOP run arm. Few expect the 2024 rhythm — overlapping with the contentious conflict for the White House — to beryllium rather arsenic favorable for Republicans if they’re forced connected the antiaircraft this time.
House Republicans are progressively suggesting that Hudson has an edge, though some helium and LaHood had assorted jobs wrong the NRCC and are well-liked among House Republicans.
Hudson besides comes into the contention with a almighty voting bloc expected to backmost him: the South. While not a guarantee, Southern members thin to rally astir their own, offering him much votes than LaHood has among Midwesterners. Yet LaHood sits connected the House Ways and Means Committee, which is afloat of almighty players successful the conference, and they are expected to enactment him.
One origin that could interruption immoderate deadlock? Whether Hudson oregon LaHood are seen arsenic much effectual connected the way and successful fundraising enactment successful the 2022 cycle.
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