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Turnout volition matter, particularly who turns out.
- Dec. 6, 2022Updated 8:20 a.m. ET
Georgians connected Tuesday volition determine whether Senator Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, oregon Herschel Walker, the retired shot prima nominated by Republicans, volition correspond them successful the Senate adjacent year.
The coda to the midterm elections comes aft an intense, monthlong runoff contention successful which Democrats spent astir doubly arsenic overmuch arsenic the G.O.P.
But wealth volition lone get you truthful acold successful politics. Here are 5 cardinal factors that volition assistance determine the winner:
Republicans’ Election Day turnout
The aboriginal ballot has intelligibly favored Mr. Warnock. Georgia does not way the enactment affiliation of aboriginal voters, but Black voters, who exit polls showed overwhelmingly favored Mr. Warnock connected Nov. 8, are astir a 3rd of the early-vote full successful the runoff, according to the caput of state’s office, a greater stock than successful past Georgia runoff elections. Women, who besides sided with Mr. Warnock past month, person formed astir 56 percent of the ballots. And Gen Z voters — 18- to 24-year-olds, who interruption wide — person travel connected strong.
Democratic modelers judge that Mr. Warnock goes into Election Day with astir an eight-percentage-point lead. If so, they say, Republicans would person to crook retired successful unit and seizure astir 60 percent of the votes formed connected Tuesday for Mr. Walker to propulsion retired a victory.
The weather
More atrocious quality for Mr. Walker: The forecast is for rainfall connected Tuesday, particularly successful heavy Republican North Georgia.
What to Know About the Georgia Senate Runoff
Card 1 of 6
Another runoff successful Georgia. The contest between Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, volition beryllium decided successful a Dec. 6 runoff. It volition beryllium the state’s third Senate runoff in two years. Here’s a look astatine the race:
A highly motivated electorate would not fto a cold, muddy time support them from the polls, but Georgians are showing signs of fatigue. There was the brutal superior play successful the outpouring that pitted Donald J. Trump’s helping of the Republican Party against Georgia Republicans who stood by their governor, Brian Kemp, successful the look of Mr. Trump’s aspersions. Autumn brought a hard-fought wide predetermination for politician and for the Senate, and present a runoff has saturated the airwaves with onslaught ads.
A time of dense December rainfall could marque voting connected Tuesday consciousness adjacent much similar a slog.
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Black men
When Mr. Trump tapped Mr. Walker arsenic his anointed candidate, helium figured the erstwhile Heisman Trophy winner, who guided the University of Georgia to a nationalist title successful 1980, would person evident entreaty to Black voters, who turned retired successful unit 2 years agone for Mr. Warnock, a curate astatine Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church.
That proved a miscalculation. But galore Black men were besides little than enamored with a Black woman, Stacey Abrams, successful her rematch with Mr. Kemp successful the contention for governor. Mr. Kemp won handily successful November with 53 percent of the vote, adjacent arsenic Mr. Warnock astir cleared 50 percent, successful portion due to the fact that immoderate Black men voted for Mr. Kemp and Mr. Warnock.
On Tuesday, different Black antheral elector volition beryllium successful the spotlight, the 1 who was truthful turned disconnected by Ms. Abrams that helium did not crook retired Nov. 8. More than 76,000 voters who person formed runoff ballots already did not ballot successful the wide election, according to GeorgiaVotes.com, a tract that uses nationalist information to analyse voting trends. That could beryllium a motion of energized Black men.
November’s summons splitters
Governor Kemp’s 2.1 cardinal votes successful November outpaced Mr. Walker’s full by much than 200,000. And Mr. Warnock’s 1.9 cardinal votes exceeded Ms. Abrams’s full by much than 130,000.
More connected the Georgia Senate Runoff
- How Walker Could Win: Despite the steady stream of pugnacious headlines for Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate, helium could prevail. Here’s how.
- Warnock’s Record: An electrical car works extracurricular Savannah could beryllium the cardinal accomplishment for Senator Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent. But Republicans aren’t giving him credit.
- Mixed Emotions: The contention mightiness person been a showcase of Black governmental powerfulness successful the Deep South. But galore Black voters accidental Mr. Walker’s turbulent run has marred the moment.
- Insulin Prices: The contented is obscurity adjacent arsenic contentious arsenic conscionable astir everything other raised successful the race. But successful a authorities with a precocious diabetes rate, it has proved a resonant topic.
Clearly, a ample fig of Georgians voted for some Mr. Kemp, a Republican, and Mr. Warnock, a Democrat.
One question connected Tuesday volition beryllium whether voters who came retired to re-elect Mr. Kemp, and possibly grudgingly voted to re-elect Mr. Warnock, volition travel retired again lone for Mr. Warnock.
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Kemp voters
An adjacent bigger question mightiness beryllium the corollary: Will Republican voters who turned retired successful November to ballot for Mr. Kemp, and voted the consecutive Republican ticket, including for Mr. Walker, crook retired again astatine all?
Mr. Walker has proved to beryllium a profoundly flawed candidate. Even earlier superior voters chose him successful May, helium had been accused of home unit and stalking by an ex-wife, an ex-girlfriend and a Dallas Cowboys cheerleader. Since then, helium has had to ain up to children retired of wedlock. His lad Christian Walker has publically accused him of neglect and violence. And 2 women person said that Mr. Walker, who calls himself a devoutly anti-abortion Christian, pressed them to person abortions.
Mr. Kemp’s popularity helped Mr. Walker triumph 48.5 percent of the ballot past month. On Tuesday, Mr. Walker volition person to bash adjacent amended than that, and without the governor’s coattails.
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