Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock stands connected the precipice of a feat his enactment hasn’t accomplished since 1990: winning 3 consecutive Senate races successful Georgia. In bid to bash it, Warnock indispensable tally up the people connected Republican Herschel Walker successful Atlanta and successful his hometown of Savannah, support the contention adjacent successful the state’s reddish Atlanta exurbs and crook retired voters successful majority-Black counties who person historically stayed location for post-November runoff elections — until Democrats’ 2 victories past year.
Here are 5 regions to ticker successful Tuesday’s Senate runoff when the votes commencement rolling in. Polls adjacent astatine 7 p.m. Eastern.
Metro Atlanta (Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett counties)
2022 Senate result: Warnock 70-28%
2022 politician result: Abrams 66-34%
2020 statesmanlike result: Biden 69-30%
Democrats person dominated the 5 counties that marque up Atlanta and its contiguous suburbs successful caller elections, but their margins matter. GOP Gov. Brian Kemp was capable to garner 34 percent of the ballot successful Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett counties successful his triumph implicit Democrat Stacey Abrams past month, amended than Walker’s 28 percent and then-President Donald Trump’s 30 percent 2 years ago.
Cobb and Gwinnett are inactive the 2 friendliest to Republicans — though Warnock inactive won each by much than 15 points — but Walker inactive lagged adjacent Trump’s 2020 numbers successful each county. And Libertarian Shane Oliver, whose votes meant that nary 1 was capable to assertion an outright triumph successful November, outran his statewide numbers successful some counties. That suggests a tiny but perchance decisive bloc of right-leaning voters who didn’t get down Walker past month.
Seeking to support Republicans successful the fold, Kemp held a rally for Walker past period successful Smyrna, successful Cobb County, the cradle of the once-dominant Georgia GOP.
The different 3 counties are solidly Democratic: Fulton, wherever Warnock received 74 percent of the vote, is location to Atlanta. DeKalb and Clayton — wherever Warnock got 84 percent and 87 percent, respectively, past period — are bulk Black.
Combined, these 4 counties volition marque up astir a 3rd of the statewide vote.
Savannah (Chatham County)
2022 Senate result: Warnock 59-39%
2022 politician result: Abrams 55-44%
2020 statesmanlike result: Biden 59-40%
Savannah — Georgia’s fifth-largest metropolis — is Warnock’s hometown, though helium lone matched Biden’s 2020 numbers successful Chatham County past month.
Democrats’ best-funded campaigner anyplace successful the country, Warnock has highlighted his roots successful Savannah arsenic portion of a hyper-local advertisement run that deed each of the state’s media markets.
Warnock’s 59.4 percent of the ballot successful Chatham County past period astir matched the 59.8 percent helium earned successful his 2021 runoff triumph implicit then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler.
Atlanta’s bluish exurbs (Cherokee and Forsyth counties)
2022 Senate result: Walker 66-31%
2022 politician result: Kemp 73-26%
2020 statesmanlike result: Trump 67-31%
The fast-growing exurbs northbound of Atlanta are inactive solidly Republican, but Walker lagged down Trump and particularly Kemp successful Cherokee and Forsyth counties, the seventh- and eighth-largest successful the state, respectively.
Walker volition request to amended connected his margins successful some Cherokee (68 percent) and Forsyth (65 percent) to travel retired connected apical connected Tuesday.
Golden Isles (Glynn and McIntosh counties)
2022 Senate result: Walker 62-36%
2022 politician result: Kemp 67-33%
2020 statesmanlike result: Trump 61-38%
The tony islands of Georgia’s southeast seashore — similar Sea Island and St. Simons Island — aren’t heavy populated, but they thin toward the GOP’s constitution wing. Walker really somewhat outran Trump here, though helium inactive finished good shy of Kemp’s benchmark.
If Walker tin attack Kemp’s ballot stock here, it would beryllium a motion that mainstream Republicans fell successful enactment with the arguable nominee.
The bellwether (Sumter County)
2022 Senate result: Warnock 51-48%
2022 politician result: Kemp 51-48%
2020 statesmanlike result: Biden 52-47%
Rural, majority-Black Sumter County is small, but it holds the favoritism arsenic the state’s most-competitive region successful the wide predetermination past month. It went for some Warnock and Kemp by likewise tiny margins — and could prime the victor again.
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