5 things to watch as Georgia decides Warnock vs. Walker Senate runoff - CNN

CNN  — 

The last play of the 2022 midterm elections is coming to a caput in Georgia connected Tuesday, arsenic Peach State voters – for the 2nd clip successful arsenic galore years – formed ballots successful a high-stakes US Senate runoff.

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock was the starring vote-getter successful the November wide election, implicit Republican nominee Herschel Walker, but helium fell abbreviated of the bulk request to triumph the contention outright.

Now it’s a one-on-one contention and some parties person gone all-in to boost their ranks successful the Democratic-controlled Senate and nonstop a connection up of the 2024 statesmanlike election, erstwhile Georgia could again beryllium a decisive plaything state. The spending by campaigns and aligned extracurricular groups has been stratospheric and turnout, contempt the state’s caller predetermination laws allowing for less days of aboriginal voting, was robust up of Tuesday’s election.

As voting ends successful Georgia 1 past clip this year, present are 5 things to ticker for during and instantly aft the runoff.

For the past fewer weeks, Georgia Republican predetermination officials person been crowing astir aboriginal in-person voting turnout. On Friday, the authorities broke its single-day record, again, erstwhile much than 350,000 radical went to the polls to formed ballots earlier Election Day.

But these numbers, and the communicative astir them, mightiness yet beryllium misleading. Though respective days past week ended with historically precocious single-day tallies, the wide fig of aboriginal voters – arsenic compared to the 2021 predetermination – really went down, from astir 3.1 cardinal past twelvemonth to astir 1.87 cardinal during this year’s condensed aboriginal voting period. (In the wide predetermination this year, astir 2.5 cardinal voted earlier Election Day.)

The crushed is simple: Under Georgia’s arguable voting law, passed successful the months aft past year’s runoffs, the clip betwixt the wide predetermination and the runoff was reduced from 9 weeks to four. The compressed timeframe besides meant less days of aboriginal voting and little clip for voters to instrumentality mail-in ballots.

Given the evident involvement successful the race, it’s a question of whether voters accustomed to voting earlier Election Day volition amusement up Tuesday, and however that displacement successful behaviour mightiness impact hold times and counting of the votes. Difficulties astatine polling places are much apt to popular up successful municipality centers, wherever Warnock is hoping to tally up the people against Walker.

In the 2020 cycle, Democrats had to expanse some Senate runoffs successful Georgia to unafraid the 50-50 divided successful the Senate that, acknowledgment to Vice President Kamala Harris’ presumption arsenic the tie-breaking vote, would springiness them control.

This time, Democrats person already retained control, with 50 seats clinched past period and Georgia representing a imaginable 51st.

But the stakes stay high: A Warnock triumph would springiness Democrats the bulk outright, alternatively than requiring the power-sharing statement that is present successful place. And that outright bulk would travel with important benefits for the party. Democrats would person the bulk connected committees, allowing them to beforehand President Joe Biden’s nominees much easily.

For example: The Senate Judiciary Committee, with its 22 members, would displacement from a divided of 11 Democrats and 11 Republicans to 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans. That would region a GOP procedural mechanics to dilatory down the confirmation of Biden’s judicial nominees.

It’s wherefore advertizing spending successful the runoff has surpassed $80 million, according to a CNN investigation of information from advertisement tracking steadfast AdImpact. Democrats person outspent Republicans truthful far, by astir $55.1 cardinal to $25.8 million.

Walker coasted to the Republican information successful Georgia successful ample portion due to the fact that of the enactment of erstwhile President Donald Trump.

But Trump’s endorsement – portion almighty capable to catapult his preferred contenders to the nominations successful Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere – turned retired to beryllium an anchor successful competitory statewide races this year.

Trump-backed candidates specified arsenic task capitalist Blake Masters successful Arizona, personage doc Mehmet Oz successful Pennsylvania and erstwhile authorities lawyer wide Adam Laxalt successful Nevada fumbled winnable races, portion task capitalist J.D. Vance, who eked retired a triumph successful Ohio’s Republican Senate superior acknowledgment to Trump’s last-minute endorsement, survived a overmuch tougher-than-expected contention with Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan.

A nonaccomplishment by Walker could further erode Republicans’ assurance successful Trump’s quality to prime winners. It would besides show what each nationalist predetermination since 2016 has shown: In galore places, a adjacent transportation with Trump is simply a governmental liability.

As the 2024 Republican statesmanlike superior begins to instrumentality shape, Trump – who hosted a tele-rally for Walker connected Monday nighttime – is already facing imaginable intra-party rivals emboldened by 2022’s results. A Walker nonaccomplishment would amplify calls for the enactment to crook elsewhere for leadership.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp kept his region from Walker arsenic helium coasted to reelection successful a rematch with Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams. Since his victory, though, Kemp has overmuch much afloat embraced his party’s Senate nominee – contempt the governor’s atrocious humor with Trump.

Kemp has appeared with Walker astatine rallies. He has chopped tv ads for the erstwhile University of Georgia shot star. And helium has loaned the get-out-the-vote cognition that helped propel him to triumph to a Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell-aligned ace PAC, seeking to assistance Walker with the crushed crippled his run lacked.

If Walker wins, it volition beryllium Kemp’s nonstop engagement successful helping to person the suburbanites who divided their tickets successful November, alternatively than Trump’s occasional enactment from a distance, that played the astir important role.

With states similar Florida and Ohio turning a deeper shadiness of red, Democrats are hopeless to broaden their nationalist playing field. And Georgia appears to beryllium their premier people pursuing the 2020 election, erstwhile Biden won the presidency and Warnock and Jon Ossoff flipped the state’s Senate seats. Biden adjacent suggested moving up its statesmanlike superior to 4th connected the calendar successful his caller missive to the Democratic National Committee.

That mentation – oregon anticipation – faces a important trial connected Tuesday.

With Kemp emerging arsenic Walker’s surrogate of prime during the homestretch, the results of the runoff could beryllium viewed astatine litmus trial for Georgia Democrats. Specifically, whether the authorities has emerged arsenic a existent toss-up.

If Warnock wins contempt Kemp’s willingness to lend his idiosyncratic popularity and turnout apparatus to Walker, Democrats mightiness really beryllium connected to something. Though galore successful some parties would hold Walker has been a less-than-stellar nominee, helium present has the firm, outspoken enactment of the authorities and nationalist GOP down him. If that’s not capable to enactment him implicit the top, Republicans’ problems successful Georgia are apt down to thing much lasting than “candidate quality” issues.

On the flip side, a Walker triumph would – for galore of the aforesaid reasons – constituent precisely successful the other direction. Georgia Republicans this twelvemonth notched a cleanable expanse of statewide positions, with the exception, truthful far, of the US Senate spot inactive up for grabs. If Walker wins, contempt each the concerns astir his campaign, it volition underscore the GOP’s abiding spot successful the Peach State – arsenic agelong arsenic Trump is retired of show and mind.