So they person to deliberation fast: Of the 435 legislature districts, they person to prime 1 — the House spot that volition accidental everything they request to know. Given the GOP is heavy favored to triumph the majority, the cardinal is to prime the existent bellwethers — not needfully for which enactment volition power the chamber, but for whether Democrats oregon Republicans volition person a bully predetermination night, compared to expectations.
Here are 5 races that often travel up arsenic the contests the pros volition beryllium watching. Two are unfastened seats, the purest tests of the governmental environment. The different 3 impact endangered incumbents: a Trump-district Democrat, a Biden-district Republican, and a two-term subordinate who has been forced, by redistricting, to question reelection successful a spot wherever astir of her constituents don’t live.
And each 5 are presently rated arsenic “Toss Ups” successful POLITICO’s Election Forecast. Here are the races to ticker connected Tuesday nighttime — and beyond — to get the champion consciousness of what benignant of predetermination we’re having.
Illinois’ 17th District
Eric Sorensen (D) vs. Esther Joy King (R)
Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index: D+2
Estimated 2020 statesmanlike result: Biden +7.8
The topline: An unfastened spot successful bluish territory successful northwest Illinois.
State legislative Democrats sought to enactment up retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos’ spot successful redistricting, transforming it from 1 then-President Donald Trump won by 2 points to 1 President Joe Biden would’ve carried by 8 points.
But that inactive mightiness not beryllium capable for Democrats to clasp it. The contention betwixt erstwhile TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen and 2020 GOP campaigner Esther Joy King is tight, and some parties are afloat engaged successful the advertisement conflict to triumph it. The territory takes successful swaths of agrarian Illinois, successful summation to the Quad Cities connected the eastbound banks of the Mississippi River — places wherever Republicans person been making gains recently.
County to watch: Rock Island. In 2020, Bustos bushed King 57 percent to 43 percent successful Rock Island, which includes Moline. That was down from Bustos’ 65 percent determination successful 2018 — and Sorensen can’t spend overmuch much slippage than that.
Nebraska’s 2nd District
Rep. DON BACON (R) vs. Tony Vargas (D)
Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index: Even
Estimated 2020 statesmanlike result: Biden +6.4
The topline: What matters much — incumbency, oregon our progressively nationalized politics?
GOP Rep. Don Bacon has survived the past fewer elections adjacent arsenic his Omaha-based territory has drifted left. Though Trump won the spot successful 2016, Biden comfortably captured its electoral ballot 2 years ago.
For his part, Bacon has struggled to navigate Trump’s relation arsenic enactment leader. He voted against some impeachments, but helium besides crossed the aisle to backmost a committee to analyse the Jan. 6, 2021 onslaught connected the Capitol. He besides supported the 2021 infrastructure instrumentality — prompting Trump to aboriginal inquire his followers, “Anyone privation to tally for Congress against Don Bacon successful Nebraska?”
But Trump didn’t find immoderate takers. Bacon won the GOP superior without breaking a sweat, though helium present faces his toughest trial successful years. The Democratic nominee, authorities Sen. Tony Vargas has outspent the incumbent and is moving connected cutting middle-class taxes.
Bacon’s run arsenic mostly been positive, though Republicans person labeled Vargas a wide and sought to necktie him to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
County to watch: Douglas. Most of the district’s voters reside successful Omaha-centered Douglas County, wherever Bacon astir ran adjacent with his 2020 Democratic opponent, Kara Eastman, contempt the information Trump mislaid the region by much than 11 points.
Oregon’s 6th District
Andrea Salinas (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R)
Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index: D+4
Estimated 2020 statesmanlike result: Biden +13.7
The topline: The astir Democratic-leaning territory connected this list, the contention for Oregon’s caller House spot is emblematic of a batch of the party’s blue-state woes.
Even though Biden would’ve carried the spot by 14 points, Democrat Andrea Salinas is locked successful a choky contention with Republican Mike Erickson.
The closer-than-expected toss-up contention for Oregon politician — a spot Republicans haven’t won successful 40 years — has contributed to making the House contention close. The GOP’s absorption connected transgression appears to beryllium paying dividends, particularly successful the Pacific Northwest, according to strategists successful some parties.
If Tuesday is simply a bully nighttime for Republicans, they’ll prime disconnected districts similar this 1 and 2 others successful Oregon. There’s besides a akin territory successful California’s Central Valley, and 2 connected Western Long Island.
What they each person successful common: They’re unfastened seats successful bluish states. Both parties hold that specified districts are ripe for Republican takeovers this year.
County to watch: Yamhill. Yamhill is simply a Republican county, but Trump’s borderline determination implicit Biden successful 2020 (4 points) showed immoderate signs of slippage from 2016, erstwhile helium bushed Hillary Clinton by 8 points.
Pennsylvania’s 8th District
Rep. MATT CARTWRIGHT (D) vs. Jim Bognet (R)
Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index: R+4
Estimated 2020 statesmanlike result: Trump +2.9
The topline: Yes, 2022 is shaping up similar a unsmooth twelvemonth for Democrats — but that doesn’t mean they’re going to suffer each of their incumbents successful seats Trump carried 2 years ago.
Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright has been a subsister successful Northeast Pennsylvania, winning by 4 points successful 2020, adjacent arsenic Trump carried the spot by a akin margin.
He’s facing a rematch against Republican Jim Bognet this twelvemonth — and portion the caller territory lines got somewhat much favorable for Cartwright, nationalist and backstage polls inactive amusement a choky race.
In this polarized era, ticket-splitting voters are progressively rare. And a beardown Republican twelvemonth could hitch retired Trump-district Democrats similar Cartwright, Rep. Jared Golden successful Maine (Trump +6.3), and Tom O’Halleran successful Arizona (Trump +8.4).
County to watch: Luzerne. In 2020, Cartwright edged retired Bognet successful Luzerne County, location to Scranton, 51 percent to 49 percent — adjacent arsenic Trump won Luzerne by a whopping 14 points. Flipping immoderate of those Trump-Cartwright voters is an imperative for Bognet this year.
Virginia’s 7th District
Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D) vs. Yesli Vega (R)
Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index: D+1
Estimated 2020 statesmanlike result: Biden +6.3
The topline: The seeds of Republicans’ midterm optimism were planted 1 twelvemonth agone successful Virginia.
That’s erstwhile the GOP’s Glenn Youngkin won the governorship, breaking 8 years of Democratic regularisation and flipping a authorities that had voted for Biden by 10 points conscionable the erstwhile November.
Now, Youngkin is barnstorming the commonwealth — and extracurricular of it, too, arsenic helium seeks a nationalist illustration — to physique upon the momentum successful legislature elections, focused successful ample portion connected ousting Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
Republicans nominated Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega. On paper, the territory is simply a bully bellwether. It’s partially suburban, stretching southbound from outer-ring suburbs and exurbs of Washington, D.C., into much agrarian areas.
Though Spanberger is an incumbent who’s raised a batch of money, she’s besides moving successful a redrawn territory that’s rather antithetic from her existent one, which is based farther southbound successful the Richmond suburbs. More than three-quarters of the caller district’s voters aren’t presently represented by Spanberger, though her TV ads person been moving successful the Washington media marketplace for astir 5 years now.
Biden carried the territory by 6 points successful 2020 nether the caller lines, which makes it friendlier territory than Spanberger’s aged territory (Biden +1.3).
And Spanberger’s been a beardown campaigner successful the past: She was the lone Democratic campaigner successful a contention that POLITICO’s Election Forecast rated arsenic a “Toss Up” successful 2020 to win. Republicans swept each the different “Toss Up” seats arsenic they outperformed expectations, particularly further down the ballot.
One different bonus for predetermination watchers: Unlike immoderate different states, Virginia is expected to implicit astir each of its ballot number connected Tuesday night. That means adjacent successful comparatively choky races, we should cognize who won earlier the nighttime is done.
County to watch: Stafford. About 1-in-5 territory voters unrecorded successful exurban Stafford County, southbound of Washington. It’s caller to Spanberger — and it’s mostly competitory territory. Youngkin carried it by 11 points implicit Democrat Terry McAuliffe successful 2021, but Biden narrowly bushed Trump determination successful 2020, 51 percent to 47 percent.
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