A tent city next to Mayfair: Why cutting homelessness might be harder than before

On a caller evening, connected 1 of London’s astir exclusive roads, an property cause was selling a spot for £16.5m. Outside the agency, connected the different broadside of Park Lane, was an encampment of astir 24 tents lodging unsmooth sleepers.

Some were sitting outside, taking successful the lukewarm nighttime air. Others were speechmaking by torchlight.

Rough sleeping is connected the emergence crossed England but the tents similar these progressively appearing successful the country’s towns and cities are lone the astir disposable signs of a overmuch bigger problem.

Homelessness is, by immoderate measures, astatine grounds levels. Over 150,000 children, for instance, are surviving successful impermanent accommodation, often miles from their schools and their friends. On occasion, immoderate are forced to unrecorded with their full household successful 1 cramped, sometimes mouldy, room.

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner says England is successful the “middle of the worst lodging situation successful surviving memory”.

To tackle this, the caller authorities is proposing to acceptable up a homelessness simplification portion and successful its manifesto, Labour said it would “put Britain backmost connected way to ending homelessness”.

This mightiness dependable ambitious, but homelessness is thing that governments person successfully tackled previously.

Labour’s manifesto said it would conscionable its promises connected homelessness by “building connected the lessons of our past” - a notation to the Blair government’s occurrence successful dramatically cutting unsmooth sleeping.

In 1999, Tony Blair committed to reducing the fig of unsmooth sleepers by two-thirds successful 3 years. By 2002, his authorities declared it had achieved its people a twelvemonth aboriginal - the fig of unsmooth sleepers successful England had fallen from 1,850 to 532.

These numbers remained debased for astir of the remainder of the decade. The method the authorities uses to number unsmooth sleeping has changed implicit the years but experts hold that unsmooth sleeping fell nether Labour.

In 2010, erstwhile the Conservative-Liberal Democrat conjugation took office, the figures showed an 11-year debased of 440 unsmooth sleepers connected immoderate fixed night. However the then-Housing Minister Grant Shapps said helium was “sceptical” that the figures reflected “the existent concern connected the streets” and truthful the counting method was revised.

Under the caller methodology, the fig of unsmooth sleepers successful England stood astatine 1,768 successful 2010. After that the numbers rose, peaking successful 2017. Now, the latest authoritative figures enactment it astatine 3,898 - 120% higher than successful 2010.

Even during the pandemic, erstwhile the Conservatives pursued an “Everyone In” effort to support unsmooth sleepers from Covid - often utilizing hotels that couldn’t judge paying guests - the fig of radical sleeping extracurricular ne'er fell beneath 2,400.

The grounds of the Blair years gives Labour the confidence, however, to accidental it knows however to chopped homelessness. But repeating the instrumentality successful 2024 whitethorn not beryllium arsenic casual arsenic it was before.

And astir experts judge the latest fig is simply a immense underestimate.

The yearly snapshot, which counts the fig of radical recovered to beryllium unsmooth sleeping connected a azygous nighttime each autumn, was recovered by the UK Statistics Authority to autumn abbreviated successful “trustworthiness, quality, and value”. It doesn’t include, for instance, a idiosyncratic known to beryllium a unsmooth sleeper, but not disposable connected the nighttime of the count.

And it’s not conscionable the numbers that are greater contiguous - the benignant of unsmooth sleeper is different, too.

The occupants of the tents connected Park Lane were mostly Romanians. Indeed successful London, for which the information is astir elaborate and up-to-date, 55% of unsmooth sleepers are not from the UK.

Back successful the 1990s, unsmooth sleepers successful London were predominantly British and Irish. One evident solution contiguous would beryllium to assistance those radical from overseas instrumentality home.

But portion specified reconnecting schemes bash exist, it isn’t that simple, says Matt Downie, main enforcement of stateless foundation Crisis. He says that immoderate are victims of modern slavery, others person the close to stay successful the UK.

“It needs untangling – they’re not each nonrecreational unsmooth sleepers,” Mr Downie says.

Relying connected the backstage rented sector, arsenic councils usually bash to tackle homelessness, is becoming progressively difficult, too.

While Labour points retired its committedness to ending alleged “no-fault evictions”, backstage rents successful immoderate areas person soared successful caller years - up 9.7% successful London successful the twelvemonth to June 2024, and 8.6% crossed England.

In addition, the short-term rental market, specified arsenic Airbnb, has reduced the fig of properties that councils tin use. London, for instance, is reportedly the metropolis with the astir Airbnb listings successful the world, totalling implicit 150,000 - retired of much than fractional a cardinal crossed the UK.

As a result, the outgo of lodging families successful impermanent accommodation has soared. Councils spent much than £1bn connected it past year, and the occupation is pushing immoderate section authorities towards bankruptcy. Several councils were forced to participate into costly deals with the past Conservative authorities to screen the soaring costs of homelessness.

Treasury rules mean that Whitehall volition lone reimburse section authorities 90% of a fig calculated successful 2011 for the outgo of impermanent accommodation, starring to an mean monthly shortfall of astir £350 per household, according to Mr Downie.

All this means the Starmer authorities volition look a much hard and much costly task than its predecessor successful the 1990s and 2000s.

There are, however, lessons the caller ministers tin instrumentality from the past Labour government, according to those who were there.

The cardinal to the Blair administration’s occurrence was getting the premier minister’s sanction and power attached to the target, says Ian Brady, who was lawman manager of the Rough Sleepers Unit astatine the time.

Tony Blair, helium said, would clasp regular meetings with cardinal ministers to spot what advancement was being made, “banging heads unneurotic if necessary”.

There was wealth down the inaugural - £250m implicit 3 years - recalls Mr Brady, “a comparatively large budget”. And antithetic authorities departments were forced to assistance execute this goal, including the Home Office and the Department of Health.

After that, a three-pronged strategy was adopted. Officials gathered information to recognize who was sleeping rough. Those already successful stateless accommodation, specified arsenic hostels, were moved into the backstage rented assemblage - allowing others to travel disconnected the streets. And tons of enactment services, specified arsenic cause and intoxicant treatment, were enactment successful spot to guarantee radical did not go stateless again.

There are imaginable lessons from the Conservatives’ word successful office, too.

In 2018, they funded 3 aviator studies of a strategy that has proven palmy successful tackling unsmooth sleeping successful the United States and Europe and had already been introduced successful Scotland.

Housing First moves unsmooth sleepers consecutive into their ain properties and provides enactment services to assistance them support their homes. Tenancies tin beryllium kept, for instance, adjacent if idiosyncratic receives a abbreviated situation condemnation oregon struggles to support interaction with their cause and intoxicant team.

The pilots were deemed to person been a success, with an authoritative investigation concluding that “the immense bulk of clients were successful semipermanent accommodation a twelvemonth aft entering Housing First and reported importantly amended outcomes crossed a scope of measures”.

But the authorities has not said if it volition present the strategy crossed the country, with immoderate experts disquieted that it does not assistance capable radical for the outgo of the programme.

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has committed to ending unsmooth sleeping successful the metropolis by 2030. He has not laid retired the afloat details yet, but has promised that assembly location gathering volition beryllium a cardinal plank – since 2018, says Mr Khan, London has built much than doubly arsenic galore assembly homes arsenic the remainder of England combined.

Despite that, London has the biggest homelessness occupation successful England.

The Conservative government, successful 2019, made a akin committedness to extremity unsmooth sleeping by the extremity of the past Parliament but failed to execute it, contempt spending implicit £500m tackling the occupation betwixt 2022 and 2025.

In immoderate case, unsmooth sleeping is not the astir important homelessness issue. The latest figures from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government showed determination were astir 120,000 households surviving successful impermanent accommodation - a record high - including those 150,000 children.

More than 3,200 children were surviving successful furniture and meal accommodation for longer than the ineligible bounds of six weeks, a fig that is up by astir 2,000% since the past clip Labour were successful power.

“It’s a nationalist disgrace,” says Ian Brady. “I wouldn’t neglect what’s happening connected the streets, but I’d commencement by tackling that problem.”

An expert, who has the receptor of the caller government, said 1 attack would beryllium to support those women and children who are fleeing home unit successful their homes and unit their partners to determination retired by utilizing a antithetic policing approach.

Finding properties for those families who bash extremity up stateless volition not beryllium easy, however.

The 1.5m homes the authorities has committed to gathering during the beingness of this Parliament volition instrumentality immoderate clip to appear, yet the stateless occupation is some contiguous and urgent.

In an effort to tackle the constricted proviso of societal housing, the authorities is expected to clasp a consultation connected the aboriginal of Right to Buy, the strategy that allows assembly tenants to bargain their homes, often astatine a important discount.

Matt Downie from Crisis would spell further. “I would instantly suspend Right to Buy. It’s been a disaster,” helium says. Since the argumentation was introduced successful 1980, of the astir 2 cardinal homes that person been sold done Right to Buy, Shelter estimates that conscionable 4% person been replaced.

However adjacent if Right to Buy were to beryllium ended entirely, immoderate commentators say yearly income lone correspond a tiny proportionality of societal lodging banal and further enactment would inactive beryllium needed to tackle the shortage of societal housing.

Mr Downie would besides impulse the authorities to align the allocations strategy for societal lodging successful England with what happens successful Scotland, truthful that stateless families get precedence erstwhile properties go available.

One acquisition that remains from the Blair years, accidental experts, is the request to guarantee that each authorities departments are moving towards the aforesaid aim.

The Ministry of Justice often releases prisoners into the assemblage knowing they person obscurity to unrecorded portion the Home Office has been evicting asylum seekers from their accommodation wrong days of giving them support to stay successful the UK, often onto the streets.

Ms Rayner has promised “a semipermanent strategy crossed Government to woody with each unit – including expanding societal and affordable housing, and providing enactment for refugees leaving the asylum strategy and situation leavers”.

Such an approach, she says, “will get america backmost connected way towards ending homelessness for good”.

The situation the caller authorities faces successful tackling homelessness is overmuch greater than the past clip Labour were successful office. But the imaginable rewards are besides adjacent greater, not conscionable successful presumption of redeeming wealth but successful giving truthful galore thousands of families the dignity and certainty that comes with having a spot to telephone home.

Top picture: Alamy