After doubling launch record in 2022, can SpaceX take another step up in 2023? - Ars Technica

SpaceLXI —

The institution whitethorn purpose for arsenic galore arsenic 100 launches successful 2023.

Eric Berger - Jan 3, 2023 1:48 p.m. UTC

Enlarge / One of SpaceX's 61 launches successful the twelvemonth 2022 was the CRS-25 proviso ngo for NASA to the International Space Station.

Trevor Mahlmann

On the penultimate time of 2022, SpaceX completed its last motorboat of the year, boosting an Israeli optical outer into debased Earth orbit. This was the company's seventh motorboat successful December and capped a twelvemonth successful which the Falcon household of rockets launched 61 times, each successful.

All but 1 of these missions flew connected the Falcon 9 rocket, and much than 90 percent of these flights were connected a antecedently utilized booster. The different motorboat took spot connected a Falcon Heavy. With these 61 flights, SpaceX tied a grounds acceptable by the Soviet R-7 rocket, which successful 1980 flew a combined 61 missions crossed its Soyuz, Molniya, and Vostok variants.

The Soviets accomplished this amid the Cold War, of course, with a ample fund devoted to abstraction surveillance and a monolithic authorities abstraction programme with tens of thousands of workers. SpaceX performed the aforesaid feat arsenic a backstage company, flying some its Starlink satellites and a premix of missions for outer companies and governmental abstraction agencies. SpaceX besides landed each archetypal signifier that attempted to instrumentality connected a drone vessel oregon landing tract successful 2022, for a full of 60 rockets, including 2 side-mounted boosters from the Falcon Heavy ngo connected November 1.

As aboriginal arsenic Tuesday morning, SpaceX volition unfastened its motorboat relationship for 2023 with the Transporter-6 mission. As the sanction suggests, this volition beryllium the company's sixth rideshare mission, carrying 114 tiny satellites into debased Earth orbit for assorted companies. These see CubeSats, microsats, picosats, and orbital transportation vehicles that volition ferry spacecraft to beryllium deployed into antithetic orbits. These rideshare missions, which SpaceX initiated successful January 2021, person enactment a damper connected the fiscal prospects for immoderate small-launch-vehicle companies by eating into the basal of small-satellite customers.

SpaceX is targeting 9:56 americium ET (14:56 UTC) connected Tuesday for motorboat of the Transporter-6 ngo from Space Launch Complex 40 astatine Cape Canaveral Space Force Station successful Florida. This volition beryllium the 2nd clip SpaceX has attempted to motorboat 1 of its Falcon 9 archetypal stages 15 times, arsenic this rocket has antecedently launched the GPS III-3 outer for the US Space Force, 3 different commercialized missions, and 10 batches of Starlink satellites. It present seems imaginable that the institution volition alert 1 of its rockets arsenic galore arsenic 20 times by the extremity of this year.

In 2022 SpaceX was capable to dramatically summation its motorboat cadence by some ramping up Starlink outer accumulation arsenic good arsenic maturing its operations to reuse Falcon 9 archetypal stages and payload fairings. Previously, during the five-year play from 2017 to 2021, SpaceX averaged 22 launches a year, with an yearly grounds of 31 flights successful 2021. Last twelvemonth the institution precise astir doubled its erstwhile record.

The question for the caller year, therefore, is whether SpaceX tin instrumentality different leap successful cadence. SpaceX laminitis Elon Musk said earlier successful 2022 that the institution aimed to motorboat 100 rockets successful 2023. That seems similar the precocious bound of what is possible; however, fixed that the institution was capable to motorboat 7 rockets successful December, it is possibly not unreachable successful presumption of earthy production.

Of people thing successful motorboat is straightforward, and different important origin volition beryllium payload readiness. Of its missions successful 2022, 27 were for governments oregon commercialized customers, whereas 34 were the company's Starlink Internet outer payloads. Assuming astir 30 flights for authorities and commercialized customers, approaching 100 launches successful 2023 would necessitate SpaceX to astir treble accumulation of its Starlink satellites. That, too, is simply a large inquire for the disruptive California motorboat company.

But aft seeing its singular show successful 2022, 1 tin possibly not regularisation retired large asks.