Analysis: Damascus now in Syrian rebels' crosshairs

The velocity with which the presumption quo successful Syria - nevertheless unresolved and unsatisfactory - has been turned connected its caput successful caller days has been extraordinary.

Syrian authorities officials and supporters were inactive asserting the service would clasp the enactment astatine Hama, adjacent arsenic insurgent fighters were entering the city.

Shortly afterwards, the Syrian subject acknowledged that it had pulled retired of Hama, ceding power of the metropolis for the archetypal clip to rebel factions.

After capturing 2 large cities wrong a week, the adjacent people for the insurgents led by the Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is Homs.

Tens of thousands of radical are fleeing the metropolis successful anticipation of what looks apt to beryllium the adjacent large battle.

The stakes person risen precipitously for President Bashar al-Assad and his cardinal backers, Russia and Iran.

Homs is strategically considerably much important than either Aleppo oregon Hama. It straddles a crossroads that leads westbound to the heartland of enactment for the Assad dynasty and southbound towards the capital, Damascus.

Whatever the erstwhile strategy of HTS whitethorn person been, arsenic it spent years gathering its powerfulness basal successful the north-western state of Idlib, the momentum of the past week present seems to beryllium starring inexorably towards a nonstop situation to the continuing regularisation of Assad.

In an interrogation with CNN, HTS person Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed the rebels bash so purpose to overthrow the Assad regime

So, attraction is present focusing connected whether the Syrian person has the capableness to spot disconnected this renewed effort to topple him from power.

The Syrian service - which is mostly made up of conscripts - mightiness person mislaid the warfare years agone if extracurricular forces had not travel to Assad's aid.

Soldiers are underpaid, under-equipped and often person mediocre morale, with desertion having agelong been an issue.

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As his subject failed to clasp Aleppo and past Hama, Assad issued an bid raising soldiers' wage by 50% - but that successful itself is improbable to crook the tide.

Russian planes backed up Syrian forces successful Hama, but intelligibly not powerfully capable to marque an impact.

The deficiency of each retired Russian subject enactment has fuelled speculation that Moscow whitethorn beryllium little capable to play the crippled changing relation that it performed successful Syria successful 2015. That would beryllium down to astir 3 years of warfare successful Ukraine, draining its reserves of manpower and subject hardware.

But Russia inactive has compelling reasons to enactment the people with Assad. President Putin's decisive, full-scale subject intervention, which kept the Syrian person successful powerfulness erstwhile helium was adjacent to defeat, showed up the nonaccomplishment of Western allies - the US successful peculiar - to honour their promises of enactment to the rebels.

The naval basal that Russia has maintained for decades successful the Syrian larboard of Tartus gives Moscow its lone subject hub successful the Mediterranean. If the insurgents are capable to instrumentality Homs, that could perchance unfastened up a way towards the Syrian seashore that could enactment the basal astatine risk.

It inactive seems improbable that Russia would not consciousness a governmental and strategical imperative to refocus its firepower connected the rebels to support Assad successful power, adjacent if lone successful power of a diminished rump of Syria drastically shrunk from the 60% helium presently controls.

The different large question people is implicit Iran and the militias it has backed - including Hezbollah- and the subject expertise it has provided, which person been the different cardinal constituent successful keeping Assad successful power.

Hezbollah person Naim Qassem - who took implicit aft Israel's assassination of Hassan Nasrallah - has declared that the radical volition basal by the Syrian government, against what helium has described arsenic jihadist aggression orchestrated by the US and Israel.

But with its enactment decimated and its fighters inactive regrouping aft Israel's crushed and aerial violative against the radical successful Lebanon successful caller months, Hezbollah whitethorn beryllium obscurity adjacent the spot it had erstwhile it battled connected the frontline against Syrian rebel factions.

However, it intelligibly is inactive committed to playing its part, with information sources successful Lebanon and Syria saying that elite forces from Hezbollah person crossed implicit into Syria and taken up positions successful Homs.

As for Tehran, it presently seems to beryllium edging distant from some nonstop and proxy confrontations successful the region, successful opposition to its acold much assertive strategy successful the past fewer years.

That whitethorn bounds its appetite for the benignant of full-scale subject enactment for Assad that it has provided successful the past.

There has been speculation that Iranian-backed militias successful Iraq whitethorn participate the fray - but some the Iraqi authorities and 1 of the astir almighty Shia leaders, Moqtada al-Sadr, person warned against this.

Assad's chances of governmental endurance volition beryllium not lone connected the capabilities of his equipped forces and his cardinal allies, but besides connected the existing divisions betwixt the assorted groups that reason him.

Beyond HTS and the factions from Idlib, determination are the Kurdish-led forces successful the north-east, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army successful the northbound and a big of different groups that inactive person immoderate acquisition successful assorted regions of the country.

Among them is the Islamic State (IS) group, which could instrumentality vantage of the latest struggle to effort to marque gains beyond the distant godforsaken regions wherever it inactive has a toehold.

The nonaccomplishment of rebel factions to unite was 1 of the cardinal factors successful Assad's governmental survival. He and his supporters volition beryllium hoping that events play retired successful the aforesaid mode again.

For now, enactment for Syrian president arsenic the slightest worst alternate inactive seems to beryllium holding among respective number groups - including of people the Assads' ain number Alawite sect.

They fearfulness what they presumption arsenic a jihadist unit taking implicit their towns and cities. HTS whitethorn person renounced its erstwhile affiliation with al-Qaeda, but galore inactive spot it arsenic an extremist organisation.

In the end, what Assad's destiny seems astir apt to hinge connected is what the main extracurricular players successful Syria decide.

Russia, Iran and Turkey person travel to agreements earlier implicit struggle zones successful Syria, astir notably successful Idlib 4 years agone - but the accelerated astonishment escalation successful Syria whitethorn person blindsided them all.

They whitethorn each soon person to reassess and travel to a determination connected what suits their interests - a Syria with Assad oregon without.