Analysis | The top 10 GOP presidential candidates for 2024, ranked - The Washington Post

When helium near the White House, helium decided helium would instrumentality authorities documents and past decided to defy returning them — successful a mode that present presents possibly Trump’s astir important ineligible liability to date.

Then helium decided helium was going to effort to asseverate dominion implicit the enactment by endorsing candidates successful the astir important 2022 races successful the country. Most underperformed their chap Republicans connected the ballot connected Tuesday and mislaid winnable races — including immoderate who could marque the quality for Senate control. And if the GOP does travel up short, there’ll beryllium a credible lawsuit that Trump outgo his enactment that enclosure for the second consecutive election.

And finally, Trump decided that helium would usage the tail-end of the midterms to absorption connected his ain impending statesmanlike announcement, which still appears acceptable for Tuesday. Trump has present backed himself into a corner: It’s exceedingly atrocious timing, but if helium doesn’t spell guardant with it, he’ll look anemic and chastened.

None of this means the GOP won’t nominate Trump again successful 2024. It has stuck with him done plenty, and its adherence to Trumpism has ever been much astir emotion than pragmatism.

But agelong earlier this week, Trump’s grip connected the enactment was weakening. An NBC News canvass successful October 2020 showed 54 percent of Republicans identified much arsenic Trump supporters than arsenic supporters of the party. By the eve of Election Day 2022, that had dropped to 30 percent — a grounds low. And it’s rather plausible it’ll driblet further now.

And possibly astir troublingly for Trump, who has smacked down immoderate Republican who dares to situation him, helium can’t look to bash that truthful good with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump’s determination to commencement going aft DeSantis has gone implicit similar a pb balloon successful immoderate corners of the party. And again, Trump tin either perpetrate to it oregon look similar helium backed down.

Even 3 months ago, we had DeSantis overtaking Trump arsenic the astir apt GOP nominee successful 2024. After DeSantis’s reelection landslide and Trump’s precise atrocious day connected Tuesday, we consciousness importantly much assured of that. The lane for a credible alternate who tin marque their information bid astir really winning the White House is present importantly wider — whether that’s DeSantis oregon idiosyncratic else.

Below are our latest rankings of the apical 10 candidates astir apt to beryllium the GOP statesmanlike nominee successful 2024. As usual, this takes into relationship some their likelihood of moving and their prospects if they do.

Honorable mention: Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.), Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.), New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, erstwhile New Jersey politician Chris Christie, Donald Trump Jr.

10. Sen. Rick Scott: On the 1 hand, the 2022 predetermination is looking similar a large setback for the Florida senator, whose stint arsenic president of the National Republican Senatorial Committee whitethorn soon extremity without his having secured what had been a precise winnable majority. On the different hand, we conscionable learned it reportedly dissuaded Scott from a planned situation to GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). That suggests a statesmanlike tally mightiness beryllium much connected the array than before. And Scott seems alternatively impatient with wherever helium is. (Previous ranking: 8)

9. Mike Pompeo: The erstwhile caput of authorities kinda, sorta suggested precocious Thursday that the enactment should determination connected from Trumpism — oregon astatine slightest from Trump’s changeless societal media score-settling, which has been pervasive since Election Day. “Conservatives are elected erstwhile we deliver,” helium tweeted. “Not erstwhile we conscionable obstruction connected societal media. That’s however we tin win.” (Previous ranking: 9)

8. Nikki Haley: After the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection astatine the U.S. Capitol, Haley was 1 of the biggest voices making a pragmatic lawsuit that the enactment needed to determination connected from Trump. (Like others, she quickly backed off.) But adjacent arsenic Trumpism suffered different large setback connected Tuesday and immoderate successful the enactment reason it’s a losing cause, the erstwhile United Nations ambassador has been remarkably quiet. She seems to person decided it’s champion not to leap excessively soon. But if others follow the aforesaid posture, it’s acold little apt the enactment makes a cleanable interruption and rallies down different candidate. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. Kari Lake: This 1 is tough. Had the GOP gained arsenic it expected connected Election Day, the Arizona gubernatorial campaigner would person rocketed up this list. Perhaps much than anyone not named Trump — and much than DeSantis, we’d reason — she gives the own-the-libs-first assemblage precisely what it wants. She continued to bear-hug Trumpism and predetermination denialism precocious into the 2022 campaign, adjacent arsenic galore successful the enactment opted for a much mean tack. But that besides mightiness person outgo her: Right now, it’s not wide that she’s really going to triumph her race. If she doesn’t, she’s disconnected this database for evident reasons. If she does, though, don’t underestimate however good her benignant could play successful 2024 — oregon her prospects arsenic a Trump moving mate if helium gets to take one. (Previous ranking: n/a)

5. Sen. Tim Scott: While each the absorption has been connected DeSantis’s show Tuesday, the South Carolina legislator softly racked up an adjacent much decisive triumph — defeating his hostile by 26 points — albeit successful a redder authorities and successful a contention Democrats ne'er earnestly targeted. And portion celebrating, Scott nodded to what mightiness travel next. He spoke of going to the polls successful 2012 with his grandfather, who voted for some Scott and Barack Obama. “I privation helium had lived agelong capable to spot possibly different antheral of colour elected president of the United States,” Scott said. “But this clip fto it beryllium a Republican.” If Republicans privation a dependable manus who could beryllium broadly acceptable to galore portions of the electorate, Scott tin marque a beauteous compelling lawsuit that’s him. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Gov. Glenn Youngkin: The Virginia politician gets a flimsy bump up connected this list, since his 2021 triumph successful a bluish authorities looks adjacent amended now. It’s existent that helium benefited from much favorable dynamics than were contiguous Tuesday. But the immense 2022 victories for governors similar New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu and Ohio’s Mike DeWine lone reinforced the electoral payment of having idiosyncratic capable to trade their marque autarkic of — without needfully breaking with — Trumpism. Meanwhile, Youngkin’s lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, connected Thursday called Trump a “liability” and said she wouldn’t backmost him successful 2024 — thing which seemingly prompted Trump to send Youngkin a informing signal. (Earle-Sears was elected separately from Youngkin, but this surely doubles arsenic a bully proceedings balloon without having it travel from Youngkin’s lips.) (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Mike Pence: The erstwhile vice president continues to locomotion the finest of lines connected Trump. In an op-ed adapted from his caller publication this week, Pence ran done what helium says happened earlier and aft the Jan. 6 insurrection astatine the Capitol. He wrote that, 5 days afterward, helium got “terse” with Trump. But helium besides assured that a president who has shown fundamentally nary remorse astir that time had expressed immoderate to him. “With genuine sadness successful his voice, the president mused: ‘What if we hadn’t had the rally? What if they hadn’t gone to the Capitol?’ ” Pence wrote. “Then helium said, ‘It’s excessively unspeakable to extremity similar this.’ ” To the grade the GOP genuinely moves connected from Trumpism — again, a large “if” — Pence’s banal rises significantly. But he’ll request tons of Trump backers to forgive him for the misdeed of not overturning American democracy. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Donald Trump: The erstwhile president remains the person successful the polls, though post-election polling could archer a antithetic tale. But he’s besides the archetypal president since the Great Depression to lose the House, the Senate and the presidency successful a azygous term. Indeed, he’s looking much and much similar the antheral who past did that: Herbert Hoover. Democrats kept moving against Hoover adjacent aft helium near the presidency, and turned that into the champion midterm of the period for the president’s party. At the precise least, Trump is much damaged goods than he’s been astatine immoderate constituent successful the past six years, due to the fact that his self-appointed estimation arsenic a victor is successful tatters and helium can’t support his ft disconnected the gas. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Gov. Ron DeSantis: Conversely, the Florida governor’s banal has ne'er been higher, arsenic helium emerged from Election Day arsenic possibly the biggest victor connected the GOP side. Among the stats: He defeated Rep. Charlie Crist (D) by astir 20 points, won the Latino ballot handily, and became the archetypal GOP politician campaigner to transportation Miami-Dade County since Jeb Bush 2 decades ago. DeSantis had already been closing successful connected Trump; a YouGov canvass past period showed DeSantis wrong 9 points of Trump successful a one-on-one matchup. And the biggest footwear to driblet successful the 2024 GOP contention is present immoderate DeSantis decides to bash next. (Previous ranking: 1)