Analysis | Voting for House speaker doesn't work the way you might think - The Washington Post

The bully quality for McCarthy? It precise good whitethorn not matter.

Election of the talker of the House is governed by antithetic rules than different votes successful the chamber. For example, legislators formed votes for circumstantial individuals, either 1 nominated by enactment caucuses oregon virtually anyone else. In the 2019 talker election, Joe Biden received a ballot contempt not lone not serving successful the House but not serving successful immoderate nationalist bureau astatine all. Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.) said “Joseph Biden” and his ballot was recorded.

In different ways, though, the predetermination follows mean rules. It’s not that the talker indispensable get the enactment of a bulk of the enclosure immoderate much than immoderate legislative ballot requires 218 votes. Instead, the talker simply needs to gain a bulk of votes cast “for a idiosyncratic by name,” similar voting “Joseph Biden.” So if 20 legislators determine not to ballot astatine each oregon ballot “present,” which is not a name, lone 208 votes of the 415 votes formed would beryllium needed for a talker to beryllium elected. (There person besides been occasions successful which the House couldn’t scope statement connected a speaker, truthful they simply voted to let a plurality of formed votes to find the speaker, though not recently.)

Imagine that McCarthy’s bulk lands at, say, 222 Republicans. If Norman and the different GOP skeptics take to ballot “present” oregon to abstain, McCarthy needs lone 216 votes to beryllium elected talker — retired of 217 different Republicans.

Similar situations person happened before. The House moved to a imperishable 435-seat creation successful 1929. Since then, determination person been 49 votes for speaker, excluding 2 successful which the talker was chosen by dependable vote. Most but not each of these votes were held astatine the opening of a caller Congress.

Here are the results, with the 218-vote people indicated.

You tin spot that determination are a batch of votes for radical too the 2 parties’ nominees; we’ll travel backmost to that.

But determination person been 4 elections successful which the victor has received a bulk of votes formed but less than 218 votes. That includes the predetermination of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) successful 2021. Only 427 votes were formed for named individuals, meaning Pelosi needed 214 votes to beryllium elected speaker. She got 216.

It utilized to beryllium that talker votes for radical who weren’t nominated by 1 of the 2 large parties were for third-party members of the House. In the 1930s, Progressive legislators regularly earned a fistful of votes. In caller years, though, determination has been an detonation of protestation votes — usually cautiously orchestrated to debar really imperiling the way to the speakership of the major-party nominee who ends up winning. In 2019, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) received 5 votes for speaker, but Pelosi was elected talker anyway.

In different words, the question isn’t whether McCarthy has 218 votes. It’s whether those legislators who don’t privation to ballot for him ballot for idiosyncratic else, perchance forcing the talker predetermination to a 2nd oregon 3rd ballot. Or further; those talker votes that settled for a plurality followed dozens of votes that resulted successful nary 1 getting a majority.

The bigger question, really, is whether the legislators loudly protesting McCarthy’s enactment really privation to artifact it oregon conscionable to beryllium heard loudly protesting. We won’t cognize the reply to that until the votes for talker are cast.