Apple reports earnings Thursday and all eyes are on iPhone 14 sales - CNBC

Apple volition study its fourth-quarter net for the 4th ending successful September aft the doorbell connected Thursday.

The astir important caller accusation successful the results volition beryllium immoderate details connected however the iPhone 14 bid is selling.

Many investors volition beryllium watching to spot if Apple's newest iPhones, which went connected merchantability precocious successful the quarter, are connected gait for a maturation rhythm oregon if planetary macroeconomic conditions person yet started to measurement connected the high-end electronics market.

"We don't judge fundamentals are immune to the macro backdrop, but we spot the operation of a resilient iPhone merchandise rhythm successful narration to revenues alternatively than volumes, arsenic good arsenic margins, to present results that show resiliency supra the low-bar of capitalist expectations astatine this time," JPMorgan's Samik Chatterjee wrote successful a enactment connected Monday.

Apple could besides spot a boost from better-than-expected income of iPads and Macs, which person been slowed by parts shortages successful caller quarters. Apple said successful July that proviso shortages could deed the company's income by $4 cardinal but immoderate analysts judge that the institution volition accidental that they were amended capable to negociate the proviso concatenation this quarter.

Apple hasn't offered authoritative guidance since 2020, initially citing uncertainty driven by the pandemic. But Apple absorption has offered idiosyncratic information points each 4th that allows analysts to backmost into the quality to forecast Apple's sales.

Here's what Wall Street is expecting, according to FactSet estimates:

• Revenue: $88.79 billion
• EPS: $1.27

In July, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said that gross maturation successful the September 4th would beryllium larger than the 3rd quarter's 2% yearly growth.

Maestri besides warned investors that portion the high-margin Services concern would proceed to expand, its maturation complaint would dilatory from 12% during the June quarter, citing the beardown dollar and economical factors.

However, "most investors are aligned that Services gross maturation should accelerate" during the December 4th again, according to Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring.

Investors volition beryllium intimately watching what Apple says astir the December quarter.

Any forecast oregon guidance that suggests a lighter-than-expected vacation play could contiguous the biggest hazard to Apple shares.

"We bash not expect AAPL to supply gross guidance for F1Q (Dec) owed to the ongoing macro uncertainty, but we judge the institution volition suggest gross maturation volition decelerate," wrote Deutsche Bank's Stanley Ho successful a enactment implicit the weekend.

However, Apple income look to person remained strong, according to an investigation of iPhone hold times and third-party estimates of the premium smartphone market.

"Guidance commentary to apt diagnostic easier supply, improving maturation successful Services and little FX headwinds, but improbable to get circumstantial maturation guidance fixed macro uncertainty," JPMorgan's Chatterjee wrote successful a note.

One merchandise class that could beryllium deed by slowing request is the company's wearables division, which includes Apple Watch and wireless headphone sales.

"We judge Wearables are the astir discretionary merchandise successful Apple's portfolio and truthful astir prone to the pullback we are seeing successful user electronics spending," wrote Morgan Stanley's Woodring said successful a note.

Apple's archetypal fiscal 4th runs from October done the extremity of December and is the company's biggest of the year, powered by accrued vacation spending and a motorboat docket that puts caller products connected the marketplace successful the fall.

Ultimately, analysts privation to get a consciousness connected Thursday of however Apple could upwind an upcoming tempest that could wounded discretionary spending and if Apple shares stay a harmless haven arsenic investors reassess different tech stocks.

Apple inactive has incredibly beardown escaped currency travel and spends scores of billions per twelvemonth connected stock buybacks and dividends. Apple banal is down 19% truthful acold successful 2022, little than the Nasdaq Composite's driblet of implicit 31%.

"We inactive presumption AAPL arsenic a antiaircraft sanction fixed beardown [free currency flow] and estimated $90-100B superior returns successful CY23 adjacent arsenic premium smartphones and macro dilatory further," Cowen expert Krish Sankar wrote successful a note.

-- CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.