Arizona governor race results: Will Lake or Hobbs win remaining votes? - The Arizona Republic

Katie Hobbs, Arizona's Democratic nominee for governor, saw slight growth successful her advantage implicit Republican challenger Thursday, though the fig of votes near to number was truthful important it promised further seesawing successful the race's margins.

One large outstanding question is whom those remaining votes volition favor, which is somewhat unpredictable successful the purple state. In 2020, they favored Republicans. But in 2018 they propelled Democrats, including Hobbs, to razor-thin statewide victories.

It could instrumentality days — oregon longer — to cognize the answer.

Election coverage: Live quality updates | Arizona predetermination results

Hobbs, the caput of authorities and a erstwhile lawmaker, saw a ample pb of much than 180,000 votes erstwhile archetypal counts were posted Tuesday night. That dwindled to a fewer 1000 implicit GOP challenger and erstwhile tv quality anchor Kari Lake aboriginal Wednesday morning, but widened slightly later that evening.

She widened the spread by Thursday evening, to conscionable over 1 percent point, arsenic counties continued reporting aboriginal ballot counts, including a large batch successful Maricopa County. The race's borderline astatine slightest for present proves close the governmental forecasters who called the contention a toss-up.

Over 2 million votes formed by Arizonans already were counted, and much than 550,000 are left to tally, according to accusation collected by the Arizona Secretary of State's Office. The bulk of those are successful Maricopa County, wherever ballots counted truthful acold person favored Hobbs by astir 4 percent points.

Major updates connected recently counted votes are expected each evening, and officials successful the state's astir populous counties — with the astir votes outstanding — person said their enactment could instrumentality days. Smaller updates could travel passim the day from much agrarian counties.

Given the tightness of the race, that besides means media outlets similar the Associated Press whitethorn not declare a victor for respective days oregon more.

Will 2020, oregon 2018, repeat?

If voting patterns from 2020 hold, and determination are signs they volition fixed Lake's beardown enactment among voters who formed ballots successful person connected Election Day, she could surge into the pb arsenic remaining ballots that were dropped disconnected Tuesday are counted.

But immoderate governmental observers are hesitant to presume that, noting that 2020 upended voting patterns amid unprecedented circumstances, namely fears astir voting during the COVID-19 pandemic and Donald Trump's sowing of distrust successful predetermination systems.

Reading beverage leaves based wholly connected the predetermination 2 years agone whitethorn ignore a decennary of past earlier it, said Tony Cani, a Democratic advisor who worked connected Biden's palmy 2020 campaign. Like 2020, this contention could connection its ain surprises, too.

“I deliberation the question is, are these 'late earlies' going to beryllium much similar 2020 oregon much similar 2018?” Cani asked. “There's each the assumptions radical are making astir the timing of this, and I conscionable don’t deliberation we tin marque those assumptions." 

"Late early" ballots mostly notation to ballots dropped disconnected connected Election Day oregon received by elections officials successful the days instantly prior.

Most Arizonans person ballots by mail, and tin instrumentality them via a mailbox, dropbox oregon by dropping them off connected Election Day. Any votes returned adjacent to Election Day instrumentality longer to number arsenic officials indispensable verify signatures and process the ballots themselves. Those are what stay to number and that could displacement the race's person successful coming days.

In 2020, these ballots broke successful favour of Trump, though they yet weren't capable to flooded President Joe Biden's aboriginal lead. Looking backmost astatine 2018 offers a antithetic pattern.

In the U.S. Senate contention that year, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema initially trailed GOP rival Martha McSally successful predetermination nighttime counts. The suspenseful days that followed saw the candidates exchanging leads until those aboriginal ballots that were counted and ultimately pushed Sinema, the Democrat, to victory.

Hobbs besides was connected the ballot that year, moving for her existent presumption arsenic caput of state.

Her contention against Republican Steve Gaynor was truthful choky that the Associated Press initially — and erroneously — called it for Gaynor, who held a pb connected predetermination night. But similar Sinema, Hobbs bounced backmost aft the precocious received aboriginal ballots successful the state's municipality centers were added to the count.

It was 10 days aft the predetermination that Gaynor conceded and Hobbs declared victory, which came by a razor-thin borderline of 20,000 votes, little than 1 percent point.

All eyes connected the Ariz. governor's race

The contention for Arizona's adjacent governor, one of the astir intimately followed successful the country, embodied the nationalist dynamics of the midterm, with GOP hopeful Lake championing economical and borderline issues portion Hobbs ran connected combating predetermination lies and protecting termination rights.

Lake, 53, utilized her decades on-camera to entreaty to Arizonans, galore of whom already knew her, and roseate to prominence aligning herself with mendacious claims of wide predetermination fraud. 

Hobbs, 52, relied connected her nationalist illustration defending the state’s 2020 predetermination to propel her bid for the Governor’s Office. As Arizona’s caput of state, Hobbs oversees elections and is second-in-line to the governor. 

Lake's unconventional and instinct-driven campaign, successful which she served arsenic some campaigner and run manager, thrived successful the spotlight. She toured the authorities speaking to voters successful what she often described arsenic a occupation interview, portraying herself arsenic a alteration cause and combatant against everything from borderline cartels to the media.

With a decennary of predetermination wins nether her belt, Hobbs ran a much accepted campaign, spending large connected advertizing to get her sanction and ideas earlier voters. Her bid was astatine times notable for its fumbles, particularly for its handling of controversies including favoritism cases Hobbs was progressive successful portion she was a authorities legislature person and her refusal to statement Lake.

Hobbs alternatively focused connected her acquisition and defence of predetermination processes, often casting the contention arsenic a prime betwixt "sanity and chaos" and a ballot for her arsenic indispensable to sphere democracy.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, volition permission bureau successful January, turning implicit the helm of the authorities to Arizona's 5th pistillate governor, whether its Lake oregon Hobbs yet declared the winner.

The gubernatorial contention saw unprecedented spending and fundraising successful portion acknowledgment to the adjacent contention itself and Arizona's increasing prominence successful the nationalist spotlight.

Hobbs outraised Lake up of the November predetermination and outspent her successful the cycle, too, astatine $12.1 cardinal compared to $8.6 million. But with extracurricular wealth seeking to power the contention factored in, $24.6 cardinal boosted Hobbs' bid compared to $19.4 cardinal backing Lake, according to the latest fiscal reports. 

Reach newsman Stacey Barchenger astatine stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com oregon 480-416-5669. Follow her connected Twitter @sbarchenger.

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