Arizona U.S. Senate Election Results 2022: Kelly vs. Masters - The New York Times

1 year ago 40
  • Polls are present closed successful Hawaii. Most polls person closed successful Alaska, but Alaska doesn’t merchandise results until aft its past polls adjacent astatine 1 a.m. Eastern. 52m ago

  • The polls conscionable closed successful Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. 2h ago

  • The polls are present closed successful Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and respective different states. 3h ago

  • The polls conscionable closed successful Arkansas. 4h ago

  • Polls conscionable closed successful 19 states and Washington, D.C. Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. 4h ago

  • The polls conscionable closed successful North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. 5h ago

  • The polls are present closed successful Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and successful parts of Florida and New Hampshire. 5h ago

  • The archetypal polls are closing successful Indiana and Kentucky. 6h ago

Latest results from 12:52 AM ET

53% of votes in

U.S. Senate Candidate

Mark Kellyincumbent

Blake Masters

Marc Victor

Democrat Dem. 797,078 57.2%
Republican Rep. 564,560 40.5%
Libertarian Lib. 31,732 2.3%
1,393,370

*Incumbent

Live forecast

Our champion estimation is that the contention is simply a tossup.

This is our champion estimation for the result of this race, based connected the places that person reported votes truthful far. Jump to the forecast

When to expect results

Most radical are expected to ballot aboriginal — by mail, in-person oregon by driblet box. Those ballots necessitate the verification of voters’ signatures, and officials accidental the timing of results volition beryllium connected however galore radical instrumentality their ballots astatine the past infinitesimal connected Election Day. No results are released until 10 p.m. Eastern. Learn much astir the timing of results ›

Circle size is proportional to the magnitude each county’s leading campaigner is ahead.

Estimated votes remaining

Estimated remaining votes
Kelly +20 856,797 54% 731,000
Kelly +41 192,793 47% 216,000
Masters +10 79,709 67% 39,000
Masters +37 56,307 65% 31,000
Kelly +5 39,835 26% 111,000
Masters +4 33,456 63% 20,000
Kelly +36 30,901 55% 26,000
Masters +7 29,813 62% 18,000
Masters +3 21,550 52% 20,000
Masters +16 16,335 71% 7,000
Kelly +19 11,746 40% 18,000
Masters +36 9,602 81% 2,000
Kelly +54 7,686 51% 7,000
Masters +33 4,680 >95% <100
Masters +14 2,160 80% 550

Our champion estimation is that the contention is simply a tossup.

How our estimated borderline has changed truthful far

The lines beneath amusement however the reported borderline (dashed line) compares with our estimated last borderline (solid enactment surrounded by an estimation of uncertainty.) As a rule, erstwhile our estimated borderline is dependable successful the beingness of caller ballot data, our forecast is much trustworthy.

Est. margin

Best guess

50% of outcomes

95%

+15 +10 +5 Even +5 +10 10:05 PM +17 Reported +2.8 NYT Estimate12:50 AM ET

Estimated stock of full votes reported

20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10:05 PM 53% Rpt.12:50 AM ET

How votes comparison with 2020
Masters +33 R+39 4,680 >95%

Analyzing the vote

Your usher to the midterm results, from Times reporters

  • U.S. Senate ›

    What each enactment needs to triumph power of the Senate

    Democrats and Republicans each request to triumph 3 much competitory Senate seats to triumph power of the enclosure (in summation to the races they are expected to triumph astir easily). Here’s the authorities of the closest races: — Lazaro Gamio 20m ago

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  • Pennsylvania Senate ›

    Fetterman up successful counties finished counting

    With much counties astir finished counting, things support looking amended for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. He’s outperforming Biden crossed the authorities and is presently up 8 points successful counties that were the closest successful 2020. — Alicia Parlapiano 46m ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine midnight Eastern successful 2 states

    Alaska has competitory races for some the Senate and the House, neither of which is simply a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. Don’t expect speedy results successful either race; officials successful Alaska won’t decorativeness counting absentee ballots for astir 2 weeks. — Maggie Astor 1h ago

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  • Florida Governor ›

    How Majority-Hispanic counties voted successful Florida

    Gov. DeSantis outperformed Trump successful Florida successful each region that has astir finished counting votes. While the 3 majority-Hispanic counties — Hendry, Miami-Dade and Osceola — shifted the most, Latino turnout tends to driblet much successful the midterms compared with different groups. — Alicia Parlapiano 1h ago

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  • Arizona Senate ›

    Arizona’s Senate contention looks similar a tossup

    The aboriginal ballot successful Arizona has been beardown for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a bully information of the in-person and late-counted message ballot to favour Blake Masters. It could beryllium awhile earlier each votes are counted. — Alicia Parlapiano 1h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 11 p.m. Eastern successful 2 states

    In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a beardown Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Aside from that, the main enactment astatine this hr volition beryllium successful the House, with a adjacent contention successful Washington’s 8th District and astatine slightest fractional a twelve successful California. — Maggie Astor 1h ago

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  • Wisconsin Senate ›

    Wisconsin is leaning toward Johnson

    It’s inactive aboriginal successful Wisconsin, but it looks close. In the counties wherever astir of the ballot is in, Senator Ron Johnson is moving up of Trump. — Nate Cohn 2h ago

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  • Kentucky Amendment 2 ›

    Kentuckians look to rebuke restrictive termination amendment

    Kentucky, a solidly reddish state, reelected Rand Paul to the Senate. But truthful far, voters are rejecting an effort to contradict termination rights. However the authorities already bans abortions, and that is improbable to change. — Lazaro Gamio 2h ago

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  • Pennsylvania Senate ›

    Early returns favour Fetterman

    It’s inactive early, but Fetterman is moving up of Biden successful 5 Pennsylvania counties that person reported astir each of their votes. — Nate Cohn 2h ago

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  • The Needle ›

    How to work The Needle charts

    These charts amusement however the reported ballot borderline (the dashed line) compares with our estimated last borderline (the coagulated line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) implicit time. When reported information comes successful that is not what we expected, our exemplary volition update and incorporated this caller data. — Lazaro Gamio 2h ago

    election results graphic

  • Virginia 7th District ›

    Fast counting successful agrarian Virginia counties boosts Vega, Republican candidate

    Rural counties successful Virginia’s 7th territory are counting votes much rapidly than its astir populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. It’s giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an borderline implicit incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could beryllium temporary. Here’s wherever we deliberation votes remain. — Kennedy Elliott 2h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 10 p.m. Eastern successful 5 states

    Nevada is the past large plaything authorities of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, 3 House seats, politician and caput of state. There is besides an unexpectedly competitory Senate contention successful Utah betwixt Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. — Maggie Astor 2h ago

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  • Florida Governor ›

    Shift to the close successful Florida

    The displacement to the close has been melodramatic among counties successful Florida reporting astir each their votes. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden successful 2020 shifted 16 points to the close successful the contention for governor, and 12 points successful the Senate race. — Lazaro Gamio 3h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 9 p.m. Eastern successful 10 states

    Arizona has aggregate races featuring Republicans who person questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and determination is simply a adjacent contention for governor. — Maggie Astor 3h ago

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  • Ohio Senate ›

    Another authorities with misleading aboriginal returns: Ohio

    Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Vance successful the returns, but astir each of the results are aboriginal votes, which we expect to disproportionately favour Democrats. Here’s wherever we deliberation votes remain. — Alicia Parlapiano 4h ago

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  • Georgia Senate ›

    Why aboriginal results whitethorn beryllium misleading successful Georgia

    Senator Raphael Warnock is retired with an aboriginal pb successful Georgia, but it could each beryllium conscionable a mirage. Most of the ballot reporting truthful acold is early, and Democrats are expected to triumph those votes by a ample margin. — Nate Cohn 4h ago

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  • The Needle ›

    The NYT Needle is live

    The Times’s predetermination forecast is present running. We usage aboriginal returns and polling information to estimation successful existent clip the result of the elections for Senate and House control. Here’s however it works › — Nate Cohn 4h ago

    election results graphic

  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 8 p.m. Eastern successful 19 states and D.C.

    Pennsylvania is location to a adjacent Senate contention betwixt Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Michiganders are voting connected termination rights. And Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is successful a choky re-election race, arsenic is Gov. Janet Mills of Maine. — Maggie Astor 4h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 7:30 p.m. Eastern successful 3 states

    Republicans are favored to triumph the unfastened Senate races successful North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats person a better-than-expected day, these are 2 places we mightiness spot grounds of it. We’ll besides beryllium watching competitory House races successful N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. — Maggie Astor 5h ago

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  • Florida Governor ›

    Early ballot successful Miami shows Republican strength

    Gov. Ron DeSantis winning the aboriginal ballot successful Miami-Dade County — which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points conscionable six years agone — is yet different motion of increasing Republican spot among Hispanic voters. — Nate Cohn 5h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 7 p.m. Eastern successful six states

    The Georgia Senate race, which could spell to a Dec. 6 runoff, could find which enactment controls the chamber. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents successful the 2nd and 7th districts whitethorn connection aboriginal indications of however the enactment volition fare successful House races overall. — Maggie Astor 5h ago

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  • U.S. House ›

    What’s astatine involvement successful the House

    Republicans indispensable triumph conscionable 19 competitory seats to retake bulk power from the Democrats. To clasp power of the House, Democrats indispensable triumph 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to triumph astir easily). — Alicia Parlapiano 6h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    First polls adjacent astatine 6 p.m. Eastern successful Kentucky and Indiana

    In Kentucky, voters volition determine whether to o.k. a law amendment that would efficaciously guarantee the implementation of a near-total termination ban. In Indiana, a House contention successful the 1st territory leans Democratic, but, if the spot were to flip, it could beryllium an aboriginal motion of a reddish wave. — Maggie Astor 7h ago

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  • U.S. Senate ›

    What’s astatine involvement successful the Senate

    If Democrats clasp onto 2 seats leaning their way, they volition request to triumph 3 further tossup seats to support power of the Senate. Republicans would request conscionable 2 tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. — Lazaro Gamio 7h ago

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  • Results timing ›

    Results successful cardinal Senate races could instrumentality awhile

    Six of the 8 astir competitory Senate races are successful states that did not telephone a victor successful the statesmanlike contention until aft predetermination night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. What we expect this year › — Alicia Parlapiano 12h ago

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  • Early returns

    Be wary of ‘mirages’ connected predetermination night

    Because of the bid successful which antithetic types of ballots are counted, aboriginal returns tin beryllium misleading. In 2020, Virginia’s aboriginal ballot for president favored Republicans, portion Pennsylvania’s skewed toward Democrats. These “mirages” amusement that ballot margins aboriginal successful the nighttime tin alteration significantly. — Lazaro Gamio 12h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls successful astir states volition adjacent by 9 p.m. Eastern

    Results volition statesman coming successful astatine 6 p.m. Eastern arsenic the archetypal polls adjacent successful Indiana and Kentucky, but the gait volition truly prime up with a slew of closings astatine 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls volition person closed successful a bulk of states. — Maggie Astor 12h ago

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About this data Demographic information are based connected the U.S. Census Bureau 2016–2020 American Community Survey five-year estimates and provided by SocialExplorer.com. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties was utilized to radical counties by size. Historical predetermination results are from The Associated Press and from the Voting and Election Science Team, which analyzed precinct results to find the 2020 statesmanlike ballot for 2022 House districts. “Most competitive” counties correspond those successful which Trump oregon Biden won by 5 points oregon little successful 2020.
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