'Avatar: The Way of Water' needs a strong second week at the box office - CNBC

All eyes are connected "Avatar: The Way of Water's" 2nd week astatine the container office.

James Cameron's long-awaited sequel to the highest-grossing movie of each clip fell abbreviated of archetypal box-office expectations during its debut past week. The movie snared $134 cardinal domestically, abbreviated of the $175 cardinal that manufacture analysts had predicted, and conscionable nether the $135 cardinal to $150 cardinal range that Disney had forecast.

While "The Way of Water" tied with Warner Bros.' "The Batman" for the fifth-highest opening of the twelvemonth and astir doubled the opening play of its predecessor, the softer-than-expected opening has near galore box-office analysts wondering whether the movie volition beryllium capable to conscionable Cameron's lofty extremity of $2 cardinal astatine the planetary container office.

As of Thursday, the movie had tallied much than $600 cardinal worldwide, a small much than one-fourth of the mode to Cameron's people for profitability.

The movie's 2nd week volition assistance clarify its longer-term box-office prospects. Showbiz analysts often look to the 2nd week driblet arsenic an indicator of whether a movie volition person longevity astatine the container bureau oregon whitethorn fizzle quickly.

For astir films, a 50% to 70% driblet is the norm. Major tentpole features from Disney's Marvel Cinematic Universe often spot box-office summons income autumn successful this scope aft reaching sky-high opening play numbers. While those kinds of films tin proceed connected toward billion-dollar oregon higher theatrical runs, this metric tin bespeak whether word-of-mouth is bringing caller audiences to theaters oregon whether involvement is waning.

A cardinal illustration is Paramount and Skydance's "Top Gun: Maverick" which saw summons income diminution conscionable 29% successful its 2nd week successful theaters. The movie has generated much than $1.4 cardinal astatine the planetary container office, and played successful theaters for much than 200 days earlier being made disposable connected Paramount+.

"I deliberation 'Avatar 2' volition proceed to slay each time done the twelvemonth and into the next," said Jeff Bock, senior expert astatine Exhibitor Relations. "The driblet volition beryllium sizable, sure, but not similar a accepted Marvel driblet arsenic Cameron's movie is truly the lone crippled successful municipality for families for weeks, if not months."

The adjacent large blockbuster — Disney and Marvel's "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" — doesn't deed theaters until Feb. 17, leaving "The Way of Water" a agelong long astatine the container bureau without hefty competition.

Not to mention, the days between Christmas and New Year's eves tin relationship for arsenic overmuch arsenic 5% of the year's full box-office receipts, according to information from Comscore. Prior to the Covid pandemic, that week averaged betwixt $400 cardinal and $600 cardinal successful summons sales.

Of course, successful the aftermath of the pandemic, the container bureau has been trailing 2019 levels by astir 35%. Without a slew of emblematic vacation releases, the last agelong of the twelvemonth could beryllium importantly little than erstwhile years.

Compounding this is mixed word-of-mouth astir "The Way of Water." While critics person lauded Cameron's visuals, saying that the movie needs to beryllium seen connected the biggest surface possible, a ample information person besides expressed disappointment successful Cameron's publication and its much than three-hour tally time. Still, the movie received precocious marks successful assemblage surveys, including an "A" from CinemaScore and a 93% "fresh" assemblage standing connected Rotten Tomatoes.

Still, fewer successful the manufacture are betting against Cameron. The filmmaker has a past of long-running hits astatine the container office, including the archetypal "Avatar" (2009) and "Titanic" (1997).

"This 2nd play has agelong been destined for deflated numbers owed to Christmas Eve, but that's wherefore it's truthful captious to presumption the film's tally based connected the spot of weekdays and weekends combined implicit the agelong vacation corridor," said Shawn Robbins, main expert astatine BoxOffice.com. "There person been a fig of pre-determined headlines astir this sequel for years, but let's hold and reserve judgement based connected what the planetary numbers archer america implicit the adjacent mates of weeks."

Aiding the film's container bureau has been a important propulsion for 3D and premium format tickets, which are much costly than accepted seats. The mean summons for "The Way of Water" is projected to beryllium astir $14.76 this weekend, according to information from EntTelligence. Meanwhile, Universal's "Puss successful Boots: The Last Wish," Sony's "I Wanna Dance with Somebody" and Paramount's "Babylon" are expected to make astir $11 per ticket.

"James Cameron is nary alien to the value of the agelong crippled erstwhile it comes to container office," said Paul Dergarabedian, elder media expert astatine Comscore. "His films [have antecedently relied] heavy connected the currency of assemblage excitement gathering implicit clip alternatively than an opening play pop."

Disclosure: Comcast is the genitor institution of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of "Puss successful Boots: The Last Wish." Rotten Tomatoes is owned by Fandango, a subsidiary of Comcast.