Best of 'frenemies': Trump's relationship with Europe this time may be very different

"It's insane! We're heading for a wide election. The state feels broken. Our system is stagnant... But astir German quality outlets conscionable look obsessed with Trump, Trump, Trump!"

Iris Mühler, a teacher successful engineering successful north-east Germany is 1 of a fig of voters I've been talking to up of February drawback elections. She isn't unsocial successful her perception.

Despite facing a full raft of its ain home difficulties - not slightest successful starring EU countries, Germany and France - Europe has been precise Trump-focused since helium won the US statesmanlike predetermination successful November.

The continent had a bumpy thrust past clip helium was successful the White House. Many fearfulness Trump 2.0 could beryllium a batch worse. And Europe's accepted powers are already struggling with their ain problems.

France and Germany are mired successful governmental and economical woes, the EU arsenic a full lags down China and the US successful presumption of competitiveness, portion successful the UK, nationalist services are successful a woeful state.

So: is the continent prepared for Donald Trump oregon has it been caught napping astatine the instrumentality (again)?

When it comes to commercialized and defence, Trump acts much similar a transactional businessman than a US statesman who prizes transatlantic alliances dating backmost to World War Two.

"He simply doesn't judge successful win-win partnerships," the erstwhile German Chancellor Angela Merkel told me. She experienced Trump past clip helium was successful bureau and concluded helium views the satellite done the prism of winners and losers.

He's convinced that Europe has taken vantage of the US for years and that's got to stop.

Leaders successful Europe person watched open-mouthed these past weeks since Trump won the US statesmanlike election, for the 2nd time. He's chosen to publically lambast allies successful Europe and Canada, alternatively than absorption his ire connected those helium recognises arsenic a strategical threat, similar China.

Trump dangles the possibility of abandoning Nato - the transatlantic subject confederation that Europe has relied connected for its information for decades. He has said he'd "encourage" Russia to bash "whatever the hellhole they want" with European allies if they "don't pay" their mode much and boost their defence spending.

When it comes to trade, Trump is intelligibly arsenic livid with the EU present arsenic helium was during his archetypal word successful office. The bloc sells acold much to the United States than it imports from the US. In January 2022, the commercialized surplus was €15.4 cardinal (£13 billion).

Donald Trump's answer? He says he'll enforce blanket tariffs connected each overseas imports of 10-20%, with adjacent higher tariffs connected definite goods similar cars.

That's a catastrophe script for Germany, which relies connected exports and the automobile manufacture successful particular. Its system is already spluttering - past twelvemonth it shrunk by 0.2%.

As the biggest system successful the eurozone, fiscal difficulties successful Germany hazard affecting the currency arsenic a whole.

Merkel has said that erstwhile helium was president past time, Trump appeared to person it successful for Germany.

Ian Bond, the lawman manager for the Centre for European Reform, believes the state volition stay "top of Trump's (European) deed list."

"What helium said successful the past is things like, helium doesn't privation to spot immoderate Mercedes-Benz connected the streets of New York. Now, this is benignant of nuts, because, actually, astir of the Mercedes-Benz that you spot connected the streets of New York are made successful Alabama, wherever Mercedes has a large plant.

"He has often been much hostile to Germany than immoderate different state successful Europe. It mightiness beryllium somewhat easier for Germany with a caller and much blimpish authorities (after the upcoming wide election), but I wouldn't beryllium holding my breath."

The UK hopes to debar Trump tariffs arsenic it doesn't person specified a commercialized imbalance with the US, but it whitethorn good get lashed by process winds if it comes to an EU-US commercialized war.

Trump's bullish benignant tin travel arsenic nary astonishment to allies aft his archetypal word successful the White House. The existent conundrum for Europe present is his unpredictability: How overmuch is bluster and intimidation and however overmuch is simply a committedness of action?

Ian Lesser, vice president astatine the German Marshall Fund of the United States deliberation tank, believes Trump's tariff threats are existent and that Europe is acold from ready.

"They're not prepared, nary 1 truly is. This precise antithetic attack to planetary commercialized upsets galore cornerstones of the planetary economy, which has evolved implicit decades."

The European Commission claims to beryllium acceptable for immoderate fig of moves by Trump erstwhile helium returns to the White House. It is simply a immense commercialized powerfulness connected the satellite stage. But Mr Lesser says the biggest interaction connected Europe could travel if Trump launches an aggressive commercialized warfare against China. That could effect successful proviso concatenation disruptions for Europe and Beijing dumping adjacent much inexpensive products connected European markets, to the detriment of section businesses.

"For Europe it's treble exposure: vulnerability to what America mightiness bash and past what China volition bash successful response."

What complicates things further is that commercialized and defence aren't abstracted issues for Trump and his administration. He precocious refused to regularisation retired economical and/or subject enactment against EU and Nato subordinate Denmark if it didn't manus implicit the autonomous territory Greenland to the US.

And Trump's incoming vice president appeared, this autumn, to marque US defence of Europe conditional connected EU regulatory bodies stepping distant from the societal level X.

JD Vance warned the US could propulsion its enactment for Nato if the EU continued a longstanding probe into X, which is owned by Trump's Golden Boy, Elon Musk.

Recently, Mr Musk besides displayed a keenness for taking sides successful European politics. He launched repeated online attacks against centre-left European leaders Sir Keir Starmer successful the UK and outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Musk posted connected X that the utmost anti-migration AfD enactment was Germany's lone hope.

This shocked galore successful Europe but pollsters suggest Mr Musk's arguable posts person small existent power connected European nationalist opinion.

Trump and Mr Musk are wide distrusted successful Europe, arsenic intelligibly illustrated successful a caller canvass commissioned by the European Council of Foreign Relations, entitled The EU and planetary nationalist sentiment aft the US elections.

In the end, antithetic European leaders person antithetic approaches to "Taming the Trump," arsenic insiders picture attempts. Some flatter his not-exactly-tiny ego.

French President Emmanuel Macron is the adept here. He was 1 of the first satellite leaders to congratulate Trump connected societal media aft his re-election successful November and helium swiftly invited him to be the glittering and dignitary-resplendent re-opening of the Notre Dame Cathedral successful Paris.

When helium was archetypal successful the White House, President Macron wowed Trump arsenic impermanent of honour astatine the yearly show of pomp and subject mightiness of Bastille Day successful Paris.

The UK, meanwhile, knows Trump has a brushed spot for Scotland, wherever his parent comes from, and for the British Royal Family. He visibly relished attending a authorities banquet with the now-late Queen Elizabeth II successful 2019. He heaped praise connected Prince William aft sitting down with him this autumn.

Others successful Europe favour flashing the cash.

European Central Bank (ECB) chief, Christine Lagarde, has advised Europe's leaders to follow a "cheque-book strategy" and negociate with Trump alternatively than retaliate against his projected tariffs.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, speaks of buying much (expensive) US liquified earthy state (LNG) arsenic portion of Europe's effort to diversify its vigor supplies. It has been weaning itself disconnected a reliance connected inexpensive Russian state since the Kremlin launched its large-scale penetration of Ukraine.

Sources successful the Commission besides talk of perchance buying much US cultivation products and weapons.

Macron, meanwhile, has agelong advocated what helium calls "strategic autonomy" - fundamentally Europe learning to beryllium much self-sufficient, successful bid to survive.

"Europe... tin dice and that depends wholly connected our choices," helium said this spring.

Covid showed Europe however babelike it was connected Chinese imports, similar medicines. Vladimir Putin's penetration of Ukraine exposed Europe's over-reliance connected Russian energy.

Macron is present sounding the alarm astir the US: "The United States of America has 2 priorities. The USA first, and that is legitimate, and the China issue, second. And the European contented is not a geopolitical precedence for the coming years and decades."

Trump's instrumentality to the White House is making European leaders deliberation astir continental weaknesses.

When it comes to defence, Trump's insistence that Europe walk much is mostly accepted (though however overmuch much is simply a blistery taxable of debate). But wherever Trump talks successful presumption of expanding GDP spending, Europeans are discussing however to walk their defence budgets much wisely and successful a much joined-up mode to boost continental safety.

Emmanuel Macron wants an EU-wide concern defence policy. He says the warfare successful Ukraine illustrated that "our fragmentation is simply a weakness... We person sometimes discovered ourselves, arsenic Europeans, that our guns were not of the aforesaid calibre, that our missiles did not match."

Europe frets that Trump volition not privation to proceed being the main sponsor of subject assistance to Ukraine arsenic was the lawsuit nether the Biden administration.

Next month, EU leaders person invited the UK - 1 of Europe's 2 large subject powers - to an informal acme to sermon moving unneurotic amended connected information and defence.

The EU's defence main and erstwhile Estonian premier minister, Kaja Kallas, believes European unity of intent is needed. "We request to enactment successful a agreed way. Then, we are strong. Then, we are besides superior connected the satellite stage."

There are analysts who accidental Europe is successful a acold weaker, much fractured authorities to woody with Trump 2.0 than it was successful 2016 erstwhile helium was archetypal elected. I'd accidental the reply to that is yes. But besides no.

Yes - arsenic discussed, economical maturation is sluggish and authorities are volatile.

Populist nationalist eurosceptic parties are gaining spot successful galore European countries. Some, similar Germany's AfD, are brushed connected Moscow - portion others similar Italian PM Giorgia Meloni whitethorn beryllium tempted to prioritise transatlantic ties with Trump alternatively than European unity.

But beware of looking backmost astatine Europe erstwhile Trump was archetypal elected president done rose-tinted spectacles.

Financially, bluish Europe was decidedly doing amended than it is now, but, successful presumption of unity, the continent was profoundly divided connected the backmost of the migrant situation successful 2015. Populist eurosceptic parties were besides connected the emergence past and, pursuing the Brexit ballot successful June 2016, determination were wide predictions the EU would soon suffer different subordinate countries and autumn isolated altogether.

Fast guardant to 2025 and the EU has weathered Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the migration situation and Trump's archetypal word successful bureau - and countries precise overmuch pulled unneurotic aft Russia's full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

It was much of a stumbling, alternatively than sailing done these successive crises, but the EU is inactive lasting and the wounds of Brexit, for example, person healed with time.

Post-Brexit UK is seen by the EU arsenic a adjacent state that shares the aforesaid values successful a satellite threatened by an ambitious China, an expansionist Russia and an unpredictable, bullish incoming US president.

Nato, meanwhile, though disquieted astir Trump's committedness to the alliance, has been boosted militarily and geostrategically by Sweden and Russian neighbour Finland becoming members pursuing the Kremlin's full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

Maybe, conscionable maybe, Trump volition spot less differences that frustrate and antagonise him astir Europe this clip round.

It's a Europe that recognises the request to walk much connected defence, arsenic helium demands; that is acold warier of China, arsenic helium expects, and that is much right-leaning successful its politics, arsenic helium prefers.

Is it a Europe whose leaders besides basal up to Trump, contempt threats and bluster, if they consciousness helium crosses a enactment - beryllium it implicit quality rights, escaped code oregon dallying with dictators?

The adjacent section successful relations betwixt transatlantic frenemies waits to beryllium written.