Betting cheat sheet: Expect plenty of points in Bama-Tennessee

Nick Saban whitethorn lone basal 5-foot-6 but helium intimidates astir everyone. That includes the betting public, adjacent erstwhile they person each crushed to slice him.

Bettors without hesitation paraded to the model past play to laic 24 points, adjacent though Bama was expected to miss its starting backmost and reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The Crimson Tide prevented a Texas A&M touchdown connected the last play to debar an outright loss.

Oh however things person changed. No. 3 Alabama (-8.5) visits No. 6 Tennessee with akin QB uncertainty and each of a abrupt bettors are nary longer acrophobic to fade. "The nationalist ever bets what they past saw," SuperBook enforcement manager John Murray told ESPN. Currently there's astir a 75% statement summons number for UT astatine each sportsbooks. However, they mostly grabbed a atrocious number, since the enactment moved connected Friday (-7 to -8) based connected increasing speculation that Young volition return.

It makes consciousness wherefore Saban is typically backed by the public. Since coming to Alabama, helium is 116-90-5 ATS (56%). Plus, against top-10 opponents, helium besides takes attraction of business: 26-21-1 ATS. "It's excessively precocious to get affluent betting connected Saban but you're decidedly not going to get affluent betting against him. I'd beryllium careful," South Point casino sportsbook manager Chris Andrews told ESPN.

Alabama is not conscionable getting by connected marque name, but it's besides not the aforesaid juggernaut we saw nether Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. Four of Bryce Young's six roadworthy starts person been decided by 3 points oregon less. That includes a Sept. 10 comeback triumph astatine Texas with a game-winning tract extremity successful the last seconds.

"There's thing that's not close with them this twelvemonth but this besides won't beryllium the aforesaid squad that sleepwalked against Texas," SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons told ESPN. "Bama usually thrives erstwhile they are being challenged oregon overlooked."

Personally, this existent agelong of roadworthy struggles substance overmuch much to maine than Saban's 15 consecutive wins implicit Tennessee. That's past history, since players and coaches crook over. The Brady Hoke and Jeremy Pruitt eras bash not matter. Josh Heupel has been gradually resurrecting the programme with elite recruits and transfers. This is simply a breakout season, and the Vols are each spot arsenic morganatic arsenic their undefeated grounds suggests.

As for the handicap, picking a broadside is tricky. If Young ne'er got wounded and Bama handled the Aggies comfortably, this enactment would beryllium double-digits. So that would suggest immoderate existent enactment worth connected Bama, assuming Young plays. But the prima backmost did get injured and whitethorn not beryllium 100%. That's a morganatic factor.

I americium playing over 66. UT owns the nation's fifth-fastest tempo, and I judge Bama volition besides privation to propulsion the gait connected offense. Both coaches judge successful their outstanding quarterbacks and are comfy successful high-scoring affairs. And adjacent if a hobbled Young causes the Tide to thin connected their moving game, they inactive person plentifulness of explosiveness.

My 1 caveat is what a pro bettor told maine connected Thursday. He firmly believes the Tide volition travel aft Hendon Hooker connected astir each play. I whitethorn really hold a 4th and past marque an in-game bet, gauging whether I judge Hooker tin past the pressure. How overmuch tin the QB take? We are astir to find retired however pugnacious helium is -- and however pugnacious bettors are, fading Saban and Bama arsenic specified single-digit favorites.

Favorite Matchups

Auburn Tigers astatine No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (-15)

At immoderate point, Auburn is going to fold similar a inexpensive suit and hardly amusement up successful a blowout loss. With my luck, it's this crippled due to the fact that I americium yet backing the Tigers. However, I person been thoroughly impressed with the Tigers lately and americium grabbing the points. They person had each crushed to fold, fixed that Bryan Harsin has wholly botched the full situation. But they astir upset LSU and past trailed No. 2 Georgia 14-3 successful the 2nd fractional successful Athens. I emotion the backmost power to Robby Ashford. The freshman ever finds a mode to marque a play.

Plus, the Rebels question to Death Valley adjacent week to look LSU, and I judge Auburn tin drawback them looking up to that high-profile showdown. I'll drawback the points against an undefeated Ole Miss squad that could beryllium sitting a small excessively abdominous and blessed close now.

Pick: Auburn +15

Iowa State Cyclones astatine Texas Longhorns (-16)

This rationale is akin to Auburn. I judge the Cyclones tin sneak up connected a squad with a immense crippled adjacent weekend. Texas travels to undefeated Oklahoma State. But it's going to practically instrumentality a flawless crippled for Iowa State, since it ranks conscionable 78th successful violative efficiency. The Longhorns conscionable got backmost back Quinn Ewers and they truly clicked. However, coming disconnected the rivalry triumph implicit Oklahoma and with the Pokes connected deck, this could beryllium a classical sandwich spot. I deliberation the Cyclones muck up a wonky crippled and eek retired the cover.

Pick: Iowa State +16

Utah State Aggies (-11) astatine Colorado State Rams

Oddsmakers are forcing bettors to wage a taxation successful bid to currency different CSU slice -- and I get it. Honestly, the Rams are horrendous. They fertile dormant past (131st of 131) successful violative ratio and person a backmost that whitethorn really play worse than that ranking would suggest. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw 2 interceptions and managed lone 78 passing yards past week, and the discourtesy was held to conscionable 3 points. However, the Rams someway picked up their archetypal triumph and covered. I deliberation it's backmost to their losing mode against Utah State, which has recovered immoderate versatility connected discourtesy with QB Cooper Legas.

Pick: Utah State -11

Nebraska astatine Purdue (-14)

This crippled volition not find its mode to galore tv sets but that's wherefore we similar grabbing each these points. In short, this fig feels mode excessively high. Under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers are a squad you lone privation to backmost successful the underdog role. They typically play adjacent games, which is wherefore you ne'er privation to laic excessively galore points. Four of their 5 games against FBS opponents this play person been decided by 4 points oregon less, and the different was a 10-point triumph arsenic a 'dog. Meanwhile, aft firing Scott Frost, the Cornhuskers person softly gone 2-1 and are tied atop the Big Ten West. A vessel crippled is not that farfetched.

Pick: Nebraska (+14)

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Other Ranked Matchups

No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions astatine No. 5 Michigan Wolverines

I thin to Michigan (-7) to cover implicit Penn State. James Franklin is simply a coagulated manager but tends to squander these opportunities, having mislaid 9 consecutive against top-10 opponents. My biggest beef with Franklin is situational consciousness and crippled management. The Wolverines fertile successful the top-15 successful some violative and antiaircraft efficiencies, and I got a feeling excessively galore Penn State drives volition extremity with punts.

No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys astatine No. 13 TCU Horned Frogs

I americium not going to overthink this undefeated showdown betwixt Oklahoma State and TCU. This has shootout written each implicit it, and oddsmakers cannot acceptable the full precocious enough. I person nary contented with taking over 68.5. TCU really has the nation's second-ranked offense, portion the Pokes fertile 24th. Now, some ain respectable defenses but it would instrumentality galore tract goals and stalled drives to support this under.

No. 15 NC State Wolfpack astatine No. 18 Syracuse Orange

Given the uncertain presumption of QB Devin Leary, making a play connected North Carolina State and Syracuse is beauteous tough. Leary is an NFL imaginable and immoderate drop-off to a backup is significant. If helium is confirmed out, I person to broadside with Syracuse -3. The Orange person been shaky but they're inactive undefeated.

No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs astatine No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats

Speaking of backmost uncertainty, Kentucky (+4) hosts Mississippi State successful different head-scratcher. I americium grabbing the points, adjacent if Will Levis does not instrumentality from injury. I watched UK's full nonaccomplishment to South Carolina and lone a fewer plays outgo them the game. I deliberation Kaiya Sheron volition beryllium much polished and the defence is susceptible of containing Mike Leach's Air Raid offense. I accidental the 'Cats sneak wrong the number.

No. 7 USC Trojans astatine No. 20 Utah Utes

Oh boy. USC has turned retired to beryllium amended than astir expected and present faces its toughest trial astatine Utah. So far, the Trojans person answered each challenge, and I americium not astir to prime against them. However, crisp wealth did backmost Utah -2.5 erstwhile this enactment opened. I recognize the Utes play overmuch amended astatine home, but Cam Rising has made immoderate cardinal mistakes this season. I americium connected the under 65. The Utes privation to tally the shot and bleed clock, and USC has violative enactment injuries. QB Caleb Williams is dynamic but the Trojans discourtesy volition conflict astatine times successful this hostile environment.