Betting cheat sheet: Why bettors aren't backing Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady person accounted for 7 of the past 15 MVP awards but are starring the NFL's 2 astir underachieving teams. And the betting marketplace is struggling to support gait with the decline.

Rodgers is arsenic a double-digit underdog for the archetypal clip successful his career, arsenic the Green Bay Packers sojourn the Buffalo Bills (-11) successful primetime. Rodgers had won and covered 10 consecutive games pursuing a loss, but Green Bay is presently riding a three-game skid and a -190 favourite to miss the playoffs.

"They person zero wide receivers and choky ends," SuperBook caput NFL oddsmaker and Las Vegas seasoned Ed Salmons told ESPN, portion besides saying the constituent dispersed would beryllium 6.5, if this matchup occurred a fewer weeks agone erstwhile Green Bay was 3-1. "Rodgers besides has a atrocious thumb and it's evident he's not throwing similar he's 100%."

Professional bettors often backmost teams coming disconnected a mediocre show oregon two, hoping to prehend worth connected a squad that figures to rebound. However, they person not backed the Packers astatine Orchard Park, adjacent though they did backmost Brady connected Thursday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened arsenic location underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens but closed arsenic favorites successful a Baltimore win.

"Brady playing astatine location against a defence that's been thing but stout is overmuch antithetic than Rodgers connected the roadworthy against astir apt the champion team," nonrecreational bettor Jay Romano told ESPN. "They were wholly antithetic spots for 2 quarterbacks facing a pivotal week for their seasons, arsenic good arsenic perchance their careers."

It's hard capable to wrapper my caput astir these legendary quarterbacks combining for six consecutive losses. Any magnitude of denial points to however avoidable it each was. Green Bay and Tampa Bay each held halftime leads successful 2 losses.

The NFL's borderline of mistake has ever been constrictive but it inactive feels similar these guys are hardly hanging on, truthful I americium not rushing to the model to backmost them. I'm waiting to spot flashes of their vintage selves earlier I judge they inactive person their magic.

The numbers you request to know

Pittsburgh Steelers astatine Philadelphia Eagles (-11, 42.5)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I person often discussed derivative betting lines, which correspond quarters and halves. These likelihood are derived from the full-game likelihood and sometimes we tin uncover edges if the investigation highlights a definite angle. Specifically, the Philadelphia Eagles pb the NFL successful first-half points, constituent differential and clip of possession. That domination has helped them clasp a halftime pb successful each six games, including covering each archetypal halves. Now, the question is whether we deliberation that continues disconnected a bye week.

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Tyler Fulghum explains wherefore helium is taking the Eagles successful the archetypal fractional vs. the Steelers.

Every bettor has their ain philosophies. Personally, the bye is the past happening I would privation for undefeated Philly. The Eagles person been rolling on and surely seemed similar they had an perfect rhythm. That whitethorn proceed against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but we often spot rust disconnected a bye. Thus, I americium reluctant to backmost them successful the archetypal fractional (-6.5) against Pittsburgh.

Line determination of the week

Tennessee Titans astatine Houston Texans (-1, 39)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

The Tennessee Titans are the latest squad to power quarterbacks. Rookie Malik Willis volition marque his archetypal vocation start, replacing the injured Ryan Tannehill. As you would imagine, the betting marketplace adjusted. Tennessee went from a abbreviated roadworthy favourite to one-point underdog. This each stems from a precise crisp betting radical wagering connected the Houston Texans +2.5 and nether 40 successful the aforesaid game. Naturally, the marketplace adjusted.

Sharp report

As I person expressed repeatedly, determination are quality classifications of respected bettors. Each sportsbook has their ain methods to the madness, tracking and evaluating each bettors. They fundamentally handicap the handicappers. That's the quality of technology.

Often determination are respected bettors connected some sides of a game. It happens. Based connected my sources, present is what I would accidental are the sharpest plays for Sunday: Texans +2.5, Patriots -1.5, Rams +1, Broncos +2.5 and Titans-Texans nether 40.