Betting cheat sheet: Why value lies on Bills-Chiefs total

The latest variation of Patrick Mahomes against Josh Allen volition present possibly the astir hyped crippled of the full regular season.

The 2 prima quarterbacks beryllium atop the MVP betting board, and the aforesaid goes for their respective teams successful Super Bowl futures. The victor volition instrumentality a elephantine measurement towards strengthening its AFC title path.

Bettors evidently are excited to ticker but they are much focused connected winning money. Mahomes is simply a location underdog for the archetypal clip successful his career, and an highly respected bettor wagered connected the Chiefs +3 (-120) earlier this week. While I tin recognize that wager, for the beingness of me, I conscionable cannot prime a side. Allen and Buffalo are conscionable arsenic potent.

The numbers you request to know

Personally, I judge the betting worth lies with the full connected implicit 54. Scoring is down this play but it truly stems from issues lone impacting astir fractional the league. After 68% of unders cashed successful the archetypal 2 weeks, the betting marketplace adjusted and present each totals skew little than they usually would.

"There are a full clump of teams wherever their totals are truthful low. When they play each other, you person a full astir 40 oregon less," Super Book oddsmaker and Las Vegas seasoned Ed Salmons told ESPN. "If you get distant from that and get a high-low matchup, specified arsenic Seattle and Chicago, that's wherever your totals are much variant."

Building connected that premise, erstwhile you get a matchup of 2 high-scoring teams similar Buffalo and Kansas City, you tin really get enactment worth connected the over. If this nonstop matchup occurred past year, the full would beryllium astir 57.5. The Bills and Chiefs ain the NFL's 2 astir businesslike offenses, and these quarterbacks are arsenic talented arsenic we've ever seen.

Styles marque fights. I surely would not privation to clasp a summons connected the under.

The numbers you request to know, Part 2

Dallas Cowboys astatine Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

The Eagles are specified an absorbing squad to handicap, peculiarly if you similar to onslaught the derivative markets. They seemingly attack each fractional truthful otherwise and that offers betting value, if the stars align properly.

Last week, I highlighted however Philly leads the NFL successful first-half scoring, clip of possession and constituent differential. Coincidentally, their opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, ranked dormant past successful first-half constituent differential. I made that my apical play and thankfully, the Eagles prevented an Arizona touchdown conscionable earlier intermission and covered the first-half line.

Philly has a definite crippled publication they privation to instrumentality and truthful far, they person been capable travel it to an undefeated record. The Eagles typically daze the strategy with their unsocial rushing attack, often going for it connected 4th down, and that has led to halftime leads successful each game.

That publication allows them to bleed timepiece successful the 2nd fractional and shorten the game. Four of Philly's 5 games person gone nether the second-half total. And that matches good with Sunday's opponent.

The Cowboys fertile successful the bottommost 3rd of second-half scoring and besides clamp down defensively aft halftime, allowing the eighth-fewest. Since Cooper Rush became the starter, Dallas has leaned connected its defense, considering it ranks sixth successful efficiency.

You tin really wager connected the second-half full (20.5) earlier the crippled adjacent starts. I similar to hold and spot if Philly does successful information pb astatine the break. If it does, I volition look to play the under.

Line of the week

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 43) astatine New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1:05 p.m ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

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Doug Kezirian explains wherefore helium is taking the implicit successful the Bengals vs. Saints matchup.

This is simply a large situational spot for Cincinnati. The biggest weakness is the violative line, ranking successful the bottommost 5 with 3.8 sacks allowed per game. However, New Orleans ranks second-worst successful unit complaint (20.3%). Bengals QB Joe Burrow thrives successful a cleanable pocket, ranking 2nd since the opening of past play with 8.61 yards per attempt. Injuries are besides mounting for the Saints. Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Chris Olave each person uncertainty.

In this precise column, I backed the Panthers against New Orleans successful Week 3 due to the fact that Baker Mayfield shines erstwhile he's not pressured. Sure enough, that turned retired to beryllium Carolina's lone win. I'll slice the Saints again this week. Give maine Cincy -2.5.

Sharp Report

By present you recognize however nonrecreational bettors operate. They similar to trust connected larger illustration size and disregard what occurred astir recently. Having amnesia is possibly the astir invaluable trait erstwhile betting the NFL. So you volition often spot pros slice teams that conscionable played good oregon backmost teams coming disconnected a brutal performance. The thought process centers astir gaining enactment worth wherever the masses overreact to 1 game.

From a statement standpoint, crisp wealth is connected the Vikings -3, Bucs/Steelers implicit 44, Bengals -2.5, Ravens/Giants implicit 45.5, Packers -7, Cots -1.5, Panthers +10.5, Chiefs +3 and Eagles -5.