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ESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts
Week 9 kicked disconnected Thursday with the Philadelphia Eagles continuing their cleanable commencement aft a xx-xx triumph implicit the Houston Texans. Action continues Sunday with 10 much games during the time (six teams person byes). So what tin we expect from a betting perspective? And what are the champion plays to assistance you marque astute wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz connection their penetration into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.
Two of the astir progressive teams astatine the commercialized deadline successful Week 9 look disconnected against each different Sunday. The Miami Dolphins (-5, 45.5), who added Bradley Chubb and Jeff Wilson are 5-point favorites implicit the Chicago Bears, who traded distant Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn and got Chase Claypool. The Bears are coming disconnected a high-scoring matter with the Cowboys past week. What are your thoughts connected the moves made astatine the deadline and this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: I deliberation the play present is to stake Miami's squad full implicit 25.5 points. Chicago ranked 19th successful the NFL successful some scoring defence and hostile yards per play and that was before they traded distant their 2 champion defenders successful Quinn and Smith. Miami's discourtesy is averaging 24 points per crippled this season, but support successful caput that starting backmost Tua Tagovailoa missed 2.5 of those contests, which skews the numbers successful a antagonistic way.
Fulghum: Ryan Poles and the Bears are doing an admirable occupation of acquiring assets (draft superior and headdress room) to marque immoderate important upgrades to the roster for adjacent play and beyond. I indispensable admit, this Bears squad has been much competitory week successful and week retired than I imagined earlier the play began. OC Luke Getsy is getting much originative successful ways to maximize Justin Fields' astir unsafe limb astatine the infinitesimal -- his legs. The defence has played overmuch amended than I imagined. Credit HC Matt Eberflus for that, but we'll spot if the departure of Smith and Quinn hurts that.
As for this weekend, I would emotion to instrumentality the points with the Bears arsenic a location underdog, but since the upwind looks similar it's going to beryllium precise comfy for a November crippled successful Chicago, I'll play the full implicit 45.5. Miami's discourtesy is intelligibly the driving unit down this play, but don't slumber connected a Bears discourtesy that conscionable scored 33 points successful a triumph astatine New England and 29 points connected the roadworthy successful a nonaccomplishment to Dallas and its elite defense. Miami's defence is alternatively pedestrian, ranking 22nd successful the league successful yards allowed per crippled and points allowed per game, truthful I deliberation Fields and the Bears discourtesy tin lend their just stock connected the scoreboard.
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Walder: Give maine Miami. Here's the fig that jumped retired to maine precocious astir Miami: with Tagovailoa connected the field, the Dolphins person averaged 0.16 EPA per play. That would way lone the Chiefs successful presumption of violative efficiency. Had Tua not gotten hurt, I deliberation there's a decent accidental we're reasoning of the Dolphins arsenic being the 4th squad successful the apical tier of the NFL aft the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. I cognize Fields and the Bears are playing better, but I'd laic the 5 with the Dolphins.
Snellings I'll hold with the over 45.5, arsenic good arsenic the Dolphins implicit 25.5 points. I'd besides play a batch of subordinate prop overs, including Fields implicit 169.5 yards passing and (way) implicit 48.5 rushing yards, Tyreek Hill implicit 86.5 receiving yards and Jaylen Waddle implicit 68.5 receiving yards. Neither defence should beryllium each that beardown this week, comparative to the offenses. Fields and the Bears discourtesy are improving; Fields has gone implicit 169.5 yards passing successful 4 of his past 5 games and implicit 48.5 rushing yards successful 3 consecutive and 4 of his past five. On the Dolphins' side, the Bears trading their 2 champion defenders should unfastened things up, and erstwhile Tua has been healthy, some Hill and Waddle person tended to devour connected a play basis.
Moody: I'd take the points with the Bears arsenic a location underdog. Chicago leads the league with 35.6 rushing attempts and 188.4 rushing yards per game. And Fields and the Bears discourtesy person been amazingly effectual recently. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is yet calling much designed tally plays for Fields, making the full onslaught much dynamic and harder to defend. The Bears' summation of Claypool mightiness person been expensive, but it tin lone assistance the discourtesy grow. I deliberation the Bears volition people immoderate points against the Dolphins aft putting up 33 points against the Patriots and 29 against the Cowboys. There is besides a accidental that Chicago's upwind volition not beryllium ideal, which whitethorn enactment against Waddle and Hill, Tua's superior aerial threats.
0:38
Tyler Fulghum lays retired wherefore helium expects the nether to deed erstwhile the Bills instrumentality connected the Jets successful Week 9.
The lone time matchup of winning teams is successful the AFC East, wherever the division-leading Buffalo Bills (-12.5, 47) are successful New Jersey to look the New York Jets. Who bash you similar successful this matchup?
Fulghum: I don't similar a broadside present (I'd thin Bills oregon nary play connected the side), but I bash deliberation we tin onslaught the total. I'd play it under 47. Six of the 7 Bills games this play person travel successful nether the total. With this crippled being astatine MetLife, I'll springiness the Jets defence a accidental astatine keeping Josh Allen and the Bills discourtesy from reaching a ceiling game. Whether this crippled was played successful New Jersey, Buffalo oregon the moon, however, I bash not spot Zach Wilson and a Jets discourtesy present lacking RB Breece Hall (plus a mates of cardinal violative linemen) to determination the shot efficiently oregon find the extremity portion often against the Bills' smothering defense.
Schatz: I'm besides taking under 47, fixed the prime of these defenses. The Bills are presently 4th successful antiaircraft DVOA and the Jets are eighth. Both defenses are balanced to halt some the tally and the pass. Add successful the problems the Jets person had connected discourtesy and it's the look for a low-scoring contest. A peculiarly bully parlay would beryllium the Bills wealth enactment and the under.
Snellings I'll articulation the under 47 brigade and supplement that with Jets nether 16.5 points. The Jets mislaid the bosom of their violative explosiveness erstwhile Breece Hall went down, and without that home-run menace I don't deliberation they'll beryllium capable to consistently determination the shot oregon people connected the Bills. The Bills' discourtesy tin beryllium a juggernaut, but the Jets person a beardown capable defence that, coupled with the likelihood of a quiescent Jets offense, should suppress the full crippled score.
What are the 3 astir important things that our analytics say?
Walder: I'll springiness you 3 takes connected sides via FPI.
Los Angeles Chargers astatine Atlanta Falcons (+3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
FPI prediction: Falcons by 1.1
I was arsenic precocious arsenic anyone connected Justin Herbert entering the play and inactive judge successful him agelong term, but astatine a definite constituent we person to enactment existent banal successful what the Chargers are showing this twelvemonth offensively. And it's not much. They fertile 18th successful violative EPA per play. And portion injuries whitethorn beryllium partially to blasted for that mediocre performance, they inactive aren't healthy. Mike Williams is retired and Keenan Allen said his hamstring wounded worsened. So the Chargers could beryllium down their apical 2 receivers for this one. And portion it whitethorn not beryllium pretty, Atlanta's discourtesy has gotten it done, ranking 4th successful EPA per play.
Indianapolis Colts astatine New England Patriots (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
FPI prediction: Patriots by 9.3
FPI holds a beauteous beardown anterior connected unproven quarterbacks without superior draught pedigree. And adjacent though Sam Ehlinger had a coagulated crippled successful his starting debut (67 QBR), it's going to instrumentality much than that to determination the model. For present it assumes a Patriots squad with a precise bully defence should beryllium capable to grip the Ehlinger-led Colts.
Carolina Panthers astatine Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
FPI prediction: Bengals by 10.6
This is decidedly an anti-recency play. The Bengals were a full dug against the Browns without Ja'Marr Chase. Losing Chase perfectly hurts, but the Bengals should beryllium OK offensively without him. OK capable to outpace the Panthers, astatine least. PJ Walker's weaponry to DJ Moore was incredible, but we're inactive not buying Carolina's offense.
0:41
Tyler Fulghum suggests taking the nether for the Rams vs. Buccaneers matchup connected Sunday afternoon.
What is your champion stake for Week 9?
Fortenbaugh: Washington Commanders +3.5 implicit Minnesota. The Vikings whitethorn beryllium 6-1, but they are being outgained by an mean of 37 yards per game. How is that adjacent possible? Washington has won 3 straight, excels astatine stopping the run, tin make accordant unit and has a backmost successful Taylor Heinicke who is 8-2 ATS implicit his past 10 starts.
Fulghum: Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers nether 42.5. The 2 astir disappointing teams successful the NFC, and possibly the full NFL, lucifer up successful Tampa connected Sunday afternoon. Both are hopeless for a triumph to support hopes for a playoff berth alive. I expect this to beryllium a physical, hard-fought crippled anchored by the spot of each squad astatine the infinitesimal - their defenses. The 2 teams are a combined 11-4 to the nether this season. Both offenses person legitimately pathetic moving games. Both teams are dreadful on the violative line, and that has resulted successful mediocre play from the past 2 QBs successful the league to assistance the Lombardi Trophy. Points should beryllium hard to travel by successful this one.
Schatz: Seattle Seahawks +2 astatine Arizona. The spread betwixt these teams successful the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings is massive, with the Seahawks present each the mode up to sixth and the Cardinals mode down astatine 30th. Seattle is 11th connected defence aft a large betterment successful the past 3 weeks; if they were 1 spot higher, that would enactment the Seahawks successful the apical 10 for each 3 phases. The Cardinals are beneath mean successful each 3 phases. When these teams played successful Week 6, the Seahawks won 19-9 and Arizona's lone touchdown came connected a weird aborted/fake (we're not definite which) punt effort by Michael Dickson. Vegas knows things precise well, and it's acold from fait accompli, but I'm not definite however the Cardinals are favored here.
Snellings I similar Vikings-Commanders implicit 43.5 points. The Vikings are apical 10 successful the NFL successful scoring mean with 24.7 PPG. The Commanders person a little scoring mean connected the season, but Taylor Heineke has moxie and a beardown narration with wide receiver Terry McLaurin and should enactment up capable points to marque the Vikings work. I could spot this 1 going good implicit 43.5 points.
Marks: Falcons +9 and Jags + 7.5 successful two-team, 6-point teaser. I'll tease 2 teams that should beryllium favored Sunday. The Chargers defence ranks past successful yards allowed aft contact, and Atlanta should beryllium capable to tally the ball, power clip of possession and triumph astatine home. The Raiders defence ranks 28th successful reddish portion defense, wherever Trevor Lawrence has had issues. Travis Etienne Jr. should person his mode against a Raiders tally defence that allows 150 yards per game.
Moody: I similar Chargers-Falcons nether 49.5. Los Angeles is averaging 23.4 points per crippled this play and the Falcons 25.0. Meanwhile, the Chargers are coming disconnected a bye week and volition beryllium without Mike Williams and astir apt Keenan Allen. Atlanta is averaging the third-most rushing attempts per crippled (33.5) this play and the fifth-most rushing yards (158.1), which besides could lend to a low-scoring game. In the Falcons' past 39 games against teams with a winning record, the nether is 29-10 and 7-2 aft straight-up wins.
0:56
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains wherefore Zach Ertz is primed for different large show for his Week 9 matchup against the Seahawks.
What is your favourite subordinate prop?
Fortenbaugh: Zach Ertz implicit 38.5 receiving yards (-133). We're getting a inexpensive terms due to the fact that Ertz has caught conscionable six passes for 55 yards successful 2 games since DeAndre Hopkins returned from his six-game suspension, but instrumentality enactment that nary squad successful the NFL has surrendered much receiving yards to opposing choky ends than the Seattle Seahawks (595 total, 74.3 per game). With a crippled full of 49.5, we should spot plentifulness of violative question successful this game.
Fulghum: Austin Ekeler to people a TD (-160). This is simply a somewhat much costly wager than I similar to make, particularly connected thing arsenic adaptable arsenic a touchdown being scored, but it's hard not to emotion this spot for Ekeler. The Chargers are 3-point favorites successful a domed crippled against Atlanta with a full of 49.5. The Falcons are besides 1 of the worst defenses successful the league, allowing 427 yards of discourtesy per crippled and 25.6 points per game. The Falcons conscionable allowed Panthers RB D'Onta Foreman to people thrice past week. Now see the information that WR Mike Williams is retired with an ankle wounded and WR Keenan Allen re-aggravated his hamstring wounded and Ekeler is looking astatine thing similar 20-30 touches successful this environment.
Walder: Aaron Jones nether 28.5 receiving yards (-106). The Lions play antheral sum 57% of the time, the fourth-highest complaint successful the NFL. Running backs are targeted little often against antheral sum and person targets into receptions little frequently. With that arsenic a cardinal factor, my exemplary puts Jones astatine a mean of 24.3 receiving yards this week.
Schatz: Kyle Pitts implicit 39.5 receiving yards (-119). We each person memories of that crippled past twelvemonth wherever Derwin James had Travis Kelce unopen down until James got wounded and past Kelce went off. But the information is the Chargers springiness up yardage to choky ends, whether James is steadfast oregon not. Five choky ends person topped 40 yards against the Chargers this twelvemonth successful 7 games. It's frustrating erstwhile the Falcons look to disregard the information that Pitts is adjacent successful their offense, but erstwhile they privation to propulsion it successful this game, he's the feline who's apt to beryllium open.
Snellings Amon-Ra St. Brown implicit 72.5 receiving yards (-117). With T.J. Hockenson nary longer playing for the Lions, his 6.1 targets per crippled are up for grabs. Last season, erstwhile Hockenson missed the past 5 games, St. Brown vacuumed successful his targets and exploded to mean 11.3 targets, 8.3 receptions and 91.7 receiving yards implicit those 5 outings. I expect Jared Goff to person passageway imaginativeness for St. Brown erstwhile helium puts the shot successful the aerial each crippled moving forward.
Marks: Etienne implicit 104.5 rushing/receiving yards (-117). As I said earlier, the Raiders unreserved defence is allowing 150 yards per crippled connected the crushed and are ranked 31st against RBs successful the passing game. Etienne is conscionable truthful explosive; helium has a tally of 30-plus yards successful each of the past 4 games.
Moody: Jared Goff implicit 0.5 interceptions (-133). Goff is averaging 0.86 interceptions per crippled this play and has 5 INTs implicit his past 5 games. The Packers secondary has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per crippled this play (174.8). Green Bay's defenders lucifer up good against the Lions' receivers, including St. Brown, who volition beryllium covered by Jaire Alexander.
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