Betting tips for Monday Night Football

Week 8 of the NFL play wraps up Monday nighttime with the Cleveland Browns hosting the Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 45) astatine FirstEnergy Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).

After an breathtaking Sunday of action, we person 1 much accidental to wager connected nonrecreational football. So which plays bash our analysts similar the most?

Betting expert Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN analyst Seth Walder, phantasy and sports betting analysts André Snellings and Eric Moody, positive Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz supply their apical plays.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 45) astatine Cleveland Browns

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium

The Bengals person won 4 of their past 5 games aft starting 0-2. However, the Browns person won the past 4 games against Cincinnati -- and 7 of the past 8 games. The Bengals volition besides beryllium without prima wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase who re-aggravated a hep wounded past week. Who are you taking?

Schatz: My favourite play connected this crippled is to spell under 45. I deliberation the enactment is beauteous good, considering that the Bengals are the amended squad (sixth successful wide DVOA with Cleveland ranked 15th) but are missing Chase. Their defence has been amazingly beardown this twelvemonth (also sixth successful DVOA), which is simply a large crushed for going under. So is their pace, arsenic the Bengals are 1 of the league's slower teams connected offense. I besides person a hard clip believing successful Cleveland's discourtesy agelong term, since Jacoby Brissett presently has a career-high QBR (as a starter).

Moody: The Bengals volition screen the spread. The Browns person relied heavy connected their moving game, with Nick Chubb ranking 4th successful the league astatine 163.6 rushing yards per game. However, the Browns are conscionable 1-3 astatine home, astir precocious losing to the Patriots by 23 points. Cleveland has gone 1-4 against the dispersed successful its past 5 location contests. Furthermore, successful their past 8 Monday games, the Browns person gone 2-6 against the spread. Since their 0-2 start, Cincinnati has gone 5-0 against the spread. In addition, the Bengals are 12-3 against the dispersed successful their past 15 meetings with the Browns.

Walder: One of the changes we made to FPI this offseason is to let to set for non-QB injuries. That's important successful this case, due to the fact that the nonaccomplishment of Chase is important to immoderate Bengals forecast. But successful this case, the exemplary inactive favors the Bengals against the spread, adjacent without their prima wideout. FPI makes Cincinnati 5.6-point favorites, alternatively of the 3 they are laying astatine Caesars. These 2 teams person been akin offensively, ranking 8th and 9th successful violative efficiency. However, their defenses acceptable them wildly isolated arsenic the Bengals person a top-10 defense, but Cleveland can't halt anyone (and ranks 30th successful antiaircraft efficiency).

Snellings: I'll instrumentality the Bengals and springiness the points. It's tough, due to the fact that this is simply a divisional matchup and the Browns person owned this bid for the past mates of seasons. Still, adjacent without Chase, Joe Burrow has settled into a portion of precocious and helium inactive has 2 elite wideout options. Plus, the Bengals defence has been deadly this season, peculiarly successful the 2nd half. They should assistance to propulsion this crippled out.

Burrow is coming disconnected his archetypal vocation 400-yard passing crippled and his Monday nighttime props are acceptable astatine 266.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs. Is Burrow owed for different large crippled against a Browns defence allowing 26.6 points per game? Do you deliberation helium volition decorativeness the play with the astir passing yards (+800)?

Schatz: Burrow is presently ranked 3rd successful passing yards, truthful I deliberation +800 is simply a bully worth connected him to win the passing yards title. The Bengals person 1 of the league's hardest remaining schedules, but that's chiefly due to the fact that of the offenses they person near to play, not the defenses. For this game, our projections astatine Football Outsiders travel precise adjacent to that yardage full and a small implicit the touchdown total, but I don't deliberation the implicit 1.5 touchdowns is worthy playing with the existent likelihood (-151).

Moody: Even without Chase, Burrow should beryllium capable to person a bully game. I'd stake the over connected passing yards. In his career, Burrow has averaged 334.7 passing yards per crippled against the Browns. He whitethorn besides decorativeness this play with the astir passing yards. The Bengals volition not spot Chase connected IR, which suggests helium volition instrumentality astatine immoderate constituent sooner than expected. Before the Week 10 bye, Cincinnati faces the Browns and Panthers, some precise favorable matchups for Burrow. To adjacent retired the season, the Bengals look the Steelers, Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bills and Ravens. Almost each of these matches are favorable to Burrow. I'd stake connected him to win the passing yards rubric astatine those odds.

Chubb has been 1 of the lone agleam spots for the Browns, and helium presently leads the league successful rushing yards (740). Chubb has rushed for much than 90 yards successful 4 of his past 5 games. Do you spot him going implicit his rushing prop (83.5 yards), oregon volition crippled travel interaction his numbers and pb the Browns to walk much connected Monday night?

Moody: The moving crippled is cardinal to the Browns' violative identity, and I don't spot them shying distant from it against the Bengals. There is simply a beardown accidental Chubb (5.9 YPA, 7th successful the league) volition spell over 83.5 rushing yards. During his past 5 games, Chubb has averaged 17.4 rushing attempts per game. For his career, helium has averaged 94.6 rushing yards per crippled against the Bengals. In this matchup, the Browns violative enactment has the advantage, truthful Chubb should transcend 100 yards.

Snellings: I'll besides instrumentality Chubb to spell over 83.5 yards. The Bengals' champion tally stopper, DJ Reader, remains connected the injured list. Linebacker Logan Wilson has returned to signifier -- and his instrumentality should assistance -- but without Reader, it volition beryllium hard to support Chubb from gaining this prop.

What is your champion stake for Monday night's game?

Schatz: I similar Brissett over 0.5 interceptions (-111). This Bengals defence truly has been playing good and, if the Browns are down successful this crippled late, Brissett volition beryllium pressing. Three of his 5 picks this twelvemonth person travel portion the Browns were losing by 1 people successful the 4th quarter.

Moody: I'm going with Tyler Boyd over 5.5 receptions (+136). Over the past 4 games, Burrow has a QBR of 133.2 erstwhile targeting Boyd. Boyd has caught 19-of-24 targets implicit that span. He'll proceed to play an progressive relation successful the Bengals' passing crippled with Chase out. In fact, against the Browns, Boyd volition astir apt spot adjacent to double-digit targets.

Fortenbaugh: My prime is Joe Mixon over 65.5 rushing yards. I deliberation we're getting a bully terms present based connected 2 factors. First, Mixon is averaging conscionable 57.8 rushing yards per crippled and has surpassed this fig lone doubly successful 7 contests this season, truthful his prop is simply a spot suppressed successful my opinion. Second, Cleveland's tally defence has been brutal this year, ranking 21st successful hostile yards per rushing effort (4.7) and 27th successful Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA metric. In the past 3 weeks alone, the Browns person allowed Gus Edwards to unreserved for 66 yards, Rhamondre Stevenson for 76 yards and Austin Ekeler for 173 yards.

Walder: This isn't a exemplary play, but besides springiness maine Boyd over 5.5 receptions (+136). Boyd really ranks ninth among qualifying WR and TEs successful Overall Score successful our Receiving Tracking Metrics, including an Open Score of 75 (tied for 13th-best). That says to maine Boyd's 155-yard violative detonation past week was nary fluke. He's legitimately playing precise well. Take Chase retired of the equation and I deliberation Burrow volition look Boyd's mode Monday night.

Snellings: Let's effort Hayden Hurst to spell over some 3.5 receptions and 37.5 yards receiving. Hurst has softly go a superior enactment for Burrow, with 18 receptions for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns successful his past 4 games. He has grabbed six receptions for astatine slightest 48 yards successful 2 of his past 3 games and, with Chase out, Burrow should look for Hurst adjacent much than usual.