Betting tips for Monday Night Football: Bears vs. Patriots

Week 7 of the NFL play wraps up Monday nighttime with the New England Patriots (-7.5, 40) hosting the Chicago Bears astatine Gillette Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).

After an breathtaking Sunday of action, we person 1 much accidental to wager connected nonrecreational shot if we truthful choose. So which plays bash our analysts similar the most?

Betting expert Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN analyst Seth Walder, phantasy and sports betting analysts André Snellings and Eric Moody, positive Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz supply their apical plays.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.

Chicago Bears astatine New England Patriots (-7.5, 40)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium

With Mac Jones returning for the Patriots, what are your thoughts connected the dispersed and full for this game? Who are you taking?

Fortenbaugh: A one-dimensional discourtesy (of which Chicago is one, acknowledgment to a hideous passing attack) is simply a look for catastrophe against a Bill Belichick-coached squad due to the fact that he's a maestro astatine making the absorption play left-handed. So you person to inquire yourself, "Do I spot Justin Fields, who ranks 32nd successful the NFL successful QB standing astatine 72.7, to spell retired and triumph maine this bet?" My reply to that question is simply a resounding, "No." I hooked a fistful of 6-point teasers into New England connected Monday nighttime and would besides laic a fractional portion connected the Patriots astatine -7.5, not to notation an under stake arsenic well.

Snellings: If Jones so back, I'll spell with the under. In 3 games earlier getting injured, Jones led the Patriots to conscionable 15.7 points per game, and they combined with their opponents to spell nether this enactment successful 2 of those 3 games. Similarly, Fields has led the Bears to an mean of 15.5 points per crippled and they've combined with their opponents to spell nether this enactment successful 4 retired of six games. These are 2 teams that are amended connected defence than discourtesy and person struggled to score.

Schatz: The Bears are conscionable a precise atrocious team, ranked 31st successful DVOA close present and 30th successful ESPN's FPI. The Patriots person been playing precise good implicit the past mates of weeks. Yes, they're going backmost to Jones from Bailey Zappe, but the larger illustration of Jones' vocation (21 full games, arsenic opposed to conscionable the 3 games from earlier this year) suggests that Jones is the amended quarterback. I person religion successful Belichick gathering a Patriots defence that wholly shuts down Fields and the full Bears offense. Meanwhile, the Patriots volition tally each implicit a Bears defence that ranks 27th successful tally defence DVOA. Patriots, each the way.

Walder: FPI has precise small religion successful Chicago, who it ranks arsenic the third-worst squad successful the NFL, up of lone the Panthers and the Brett Rypien-led Broncos. Sacks are a superior occupation for Fields. I contend they are mostly connected him, but that's truly neither present nor determination erstwhile forecasting this game. The Patriots defence is legit, ranking 5th successful ratio this season. Put it each unneurotic and the exemplary thinks New England should beryllium 9.9 constituent favorites. I'll instrumentality the Patriots.

Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for implicit 200 yards implicit the past 2 games. The Bears person 1 of the champion walk defenses successful the NFL, but are 1 of the worst against the run. What are your thoughts connected Stevenson to decorativeness with the astir rushing yards this play (30-1), arsenic good arsenic his props for Monday night?

Snellings: With Damien Harris having returned to afloat signifier connected Thursday, I'm expecting rushing accumulation successful the 60-70 gait scope for Stevenson, and receiving accumulation successful the low-20s arsenic opposed to the 266 full yards helium produced implicit the past 2 weeks with Harris out. In different words, Stevenson could inactive beryllium successful for a coagulated crippled successful a timeshare with Harris, particularly done the air, and I could inactive spot him arsenic a apt campaigner to people a touchdown.

Fortenbaugh: I bash emotion Stevenson, but the instrumentality of Harris makes this a walk for me. He simply won't grounds capable touches.

Schatz: I hold with Fortenbaugh here. Bill Belichick loves his RB committees excessively overmuch for Stevenson to pb the league successful yardage for the season. The question of however overmuch Harris volition play scares maine disconnected of going either implicit oregon nether connected Stevenson's Monday nighttime props.

The Bears person lone thrown the shot 35% of the time, with 141 attempts connected 402 plays -- lowest successful the league. However, Fields' rushing yards prop has gone implicit successful 5 of his past six distant games. It's astatine 43.5 for Monday night. What are your thoughts connected Chicago's subordinate props? Would you instrumentality immoderate of them for Monday night?

Fortenbaugh: I'd beryllium looking to play unders, particularly erstwhile it comes to Chicago's rushing attack. I deliberation Belichick is going to stack the container and situation Fields to bushed New England with his arm, thing the second-year backmost has been incapable to bash passim his little clip successful the NFL.

Snellings: I'd instrumentality Fields over 43.5 rushing yards. He's gone implicit that people successful each of the past 4 games, averaging 58.5 yards. I could spot Belichick daring Fields to propulsion and trying to bounds the run, but Fields is electrical capable with his legs that I inactive similar him to bash immoderate damage.

Schatz: I'll instrumentality the over connected Fields' rushing yards due to the fact that the Patriots historically person occupation with scrambling quarterbacks, successful portion due to the fact that they play a batch of antheral coverage. I hold that the Patriots volition look to stack the container and unit Fields to throw, but he'll get retired of the pouch for a mates of large runs against this defense.

Walder: I'll spell over for the aforesaid reason. The Patriots person gone with antheral sum astatine a 56% complaint this season, which is 5th highest successful the NFL. That mostly leads to much scrambling opportunities for opposing quarterbacks. The Bears ought to beryllium looking to get Fields to usage his legs arsenic overmuch arsenic possible.

What is your champion stake for Monday night's game?

Fortenbaugh: I similar the Bears to people under 15.5 full points (+100). This Chicago discourtesy is successful for a loooong night.

Walder: I'll instrumentality Darnell Mooney for over 3.5 receptions (+100). I'm somewhat tense astir this 1 due to the fact that my model, which projects 4.3 receptions for Mooney connected Monday, is having a hard clip forecasting walk rates arsenic debased arsenic what the Bears are putting up due to the fact that they are specified outliers. Still, Mooney is coming disconnected of a 12-target, seven-reception game, which I deliberation carries immoderate signal. Plus, the Bears are going to beryllium down and volition have to pass, adjacent if they don't privation to. Mooney is the evident target.

Moody: Mooney has gained much than 50 yards successful 3 consecutive games. In that clip frame, helium has accumulated 22 targets. Even though the Bears are facing Bill Belichick and the Patriots, Mooney is Chicago's champion receiving playmaker. Against the Patriots cornerbacks, helium is talented capable to win. There should beryllium much than capable people measurement for Mooney to spell over 45.5 receiving yards.