Betting tips for Monday Night Football: Broncos vs. Chargers

Week 6 of the NFL play wraps up Monday nighttime with the Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 45.5) hosting the Denver Broncos astatine SoFi Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).

After an breathtaking Sunday of action, we person 1 much accidental to wager connected nonrecreational shot if we truthful choose. So which plays bash our analysts similar the most?

Betting expert Anita Marks, ESPN analyst Seth Walder, phantasy and sports betting analysts André Snellings and Eric Moody, positive Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz supply their apical plays.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.

Denver Broncos astatine Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 45.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium

The Broncos look to get backmost connected way Monday nighttime against the Chargers successful yet different AFC West battle. What are your thoughts connected the full and spread? Who are you taking?

Schatz: Our viewpoint connected the Denver discourtesy is impacted by the information that Russell Wilson's worst games person travel connected nationalist television. He was amended against Houston successful Week 2 and peculiarly against Las Vegas successful Week 4. The Broncos discourtesy has besides been amended from further out, arsenic they're ranked 13th successful passing DVOA outside the reddish zone. So, I deliberation there's going to beryllium much discourtesy successful this crippled than we mightiness expect, adjacent with the Denver defence playing truthful good close now. Meanwhile, the Chargers person a top-10 discourtesy by DVOA and the sixth-fastest gait successful the league, which means much plays and much scoring. I similar the Chargers to win, but wouldn't interaction this spread. I will, however, spell with over 45.5 connected the total.

Snellings: I'll springiness the points to instrumentality the Chargers, arsenic good arsenic the under. The Broncos conscionable can't get close connected discourtesy and person been incapable to get into the extremity zone. The Chargers are getting healthier but volition inactive beryllium without Keenan Allen. They should win, but I'm not looking for immoderate benignant of discourtesy detonation here.

Walder: FPI likes the Chargers by 8.3 points, which is good wide of the 4.5-point spread. That's adjacent not knowing that Wilson is simply a small banged up -- and I'm awfully inclined to agree. This is Justin Herbert against the third-worst discourtesy successful the NFL by expected points added per play. At immoderate point, we person to judge what the Broncos are telling america -- they are a mediocre violative team. And yes, the vantage is flipped connected the different broadside of the ball, but defence is overmuch much variant from game-to-game than offense. All successful all, there's bully crushed to backmost the Chargers here.

Moody: The Broncos and Chargers are apt to play a low-scoring game. Wilson is playing done a enarthrosis wounded and, successful 5 games, helium has completed conscionable 59.4% of his passes with an 82.8 passer standing -- some vocation lows. After being constricted successful signifier connected Thursday, Melvin Gordon III and Mike Boone are some listed arsenic questionable. Allen volition miss different crippled for the Chargers, but Los Angeles inactive ranks ninth successful points per crippled (24.4). Denver's violative woes are good known, with the squad ranked 31st successful points per crippled (15.0). My proposal is to stake the under. The Chargers are a balanced squad and should screen the spread. Denver has mislaid six consecutive Monday Night Football games and are 1-7 against the dispersed successful their past 8 roadworthy games.

Marks: I'm playing the under connected Monday night. Denver's discourtesy is averaging 16 points per crippled and they person the worst reddish portion discourtesy successful the NFL.The Broncos defence has allowed lone 5 touchdowns successful 5 games -- with the best reddish portion defense, wherever opponents are lone scoring astatine conscionable a 10% rate. Denver's games this play person averaged conscionable 31 combined points.

Herbert is presently ranked 2nd successful passing yards with 1,478 done 5 games played. He sits conscionable down Josh Allen and conscionable up of Tom Brady. Do you deliberation that picking Herbert for astir passing yards (+1200) is simply a bully stake close present -- oregon would you spell with idiosyncratic else? What astir taking a accidental connected him for MVP (+1600)?

Schatz: The faster gait for the Chargers makes Herbert a bully stake to extremity up starring the league successful passing yards, particularly astatine +1200 odds. However, I wouldn't similar Herbert arsenic an MVP stake close present due to the fact that the Chiefs look to beryllium successful power of the AFC West. No part title, nary MVP.

Wilson has been held nether 241 passing yards successful 4 of the Broncos' past 5 games. The Chargers are besides ranked 12th successful passing defense, allowing 237.6 yards per game. Wilson's over/unders presently beryllium astatine 231.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs. What are your thoughts?

Walder: I'll instrumentality a antithetic Wilson prop: over 31.5 walk attempts (-132). It's sticking with the aforesaid thesis that the Chargers are going to beryllium up successful this one, and the Broncos are going to person nary prime but to person Wilson propulsion it. I consciousness much assured successful the quantity of attempts than the quality.

Snellings: I'll spell with the over successful yards, but I'm not touching the touchdowns. I expect the Broncos to beryllium playing from down with tons of passing, and I've seen them determination the shot successful spurts. What I haven't yet seen them bash is punch it successful from the reddish zone.

Moody: Due to Wilson's enarthrosis injury, the Broncos should bounds his passing attempts. I hold with what Vegas has listed. In my opinion, those numbers correspond Wilson's ceiling. I would stake the under connected some passing yards and passing touchdowns.

What is your champion stake for Monday night's game?

Schatz: I'll spell with Jerry Jeudy under 50.5 yards arsenic my champion bet. Yes, he's hardly surpassed that with 53 yards successful some of his past 2 games, but Wilson doesn't look to person the transportation with Jeudy that helium has with Courtland Sutton. Plus, the Chargers presently fertile No. 1 successful the league successful DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers.

Walder: I'll besides spell with Jeudy under 50.5 receiving yards. This is simply a double-down of sorts for maine due to the fact that I had Jeudy's nether past week and suffered a atrocious beat. (He had lone 16 receiving yards astatine the extremity of regulation, but caught a 37-yard walk successful overtime to conscionable sneak over.) This isn't conscionable a revenge nether though. My exemplary does similar this side, forecasting 46.7 receiving yards for the Broncos wideout. I bash deliberation Jeudy is skilled astatine getting open, but his 18% people stock isn't thing special.

Moody: I similar going with Mike Boone over successful rushing yards. The Chargers person 1 of the worst tally defenses successful the league. Los Angeles allows the ninth-most rushing yards per crippled (130.4). Last week, Nick Chubb finished with 134 rushing yards. Prior to that, Dameon Pierce and James Robinson some surpassed 100 yards against the Chargers. Boone could spot much rushing attempts than primitively anticipated owed to Gordon's aggregate injuries.

Snellings: For me, I'm picking Ekeler over successful full yards. The Chargers should beryllium playing with a pb and the weakness of the Broncos defence is successful stopping the run. On the different hand, the spot of the Denver defence is the walk rush, truthful Ekeler should beryllium a beardown alleviation valve successful the passing game. Plus, Ekeler has been playing highly good successful caller weeks.