Biden Mexico visit: Can US, AMLO halt deadly cartel flow of fentanyl? - USA TODAY

Security analysts accidental caller apprehension of lad of El Chapo shows Mexico tin spell aft cause cartels erstwhile it wants to - oregon needs to - successful effect to U.S. pressure

• Biden heads to Mexico City this week for gathering with Mexican president, fentanyl connected the agenda
• Timing of apprehension of alleged cartel person shows Mexico tin bash much erstwhile it wants to, analysts say.
• Analysts accidental Biden needs to propulsion acold much aggressively for enactment by Mexico connected drugs and corruption.

Four days earlier President Joe Biden flies southbound to conscionable with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, authorities successful the northwest authorities of Sinaloa arrested the son of the infamous cause cartel leader known arsenic "El Chapo," who is wanted by U.S. officials for contributing to the fentanyl epidemic that killed arsenic galore arsenic 70,000 Americans past year. 

At slightest 29 people, including 10 Mexican soldiers, were killed successful shootouts with Sinaloa Cartel members during the cognition to nab Ovidio Guzman connected Thursday and alert him to Mexico City connected a subject plane.

Publicly, Mexican officials denied that the raid was timed to amusement Washington that its confederate neighbour is an progressive spouse successful the politically fraught bilateral effort to staunch the cross-border travel of the lethal synthetic opioid.

More: Arrest of El Chapo's lad Ovidio Guzman throws Mexico into chaos up of Biden visit

But immoderate existent and erstwhile American counternarcotics officials are suspicious, noting that different "most wanted" cause cartel leader, Rafael Caro Quintero, was arrested successful Sinaloa conscionable days aft Biden and Lopez Obrador met successful Washington past July to sermon a scope of issues, including a cause warfare that has tested the 2 countries' information confederation for the past fractional a century.

"It surely seems similar politics. There's a batch of speculation present that it's each astir the timing," erstwhile Drug Enforcement Administration authoritative Derek Maltz told USA TODAY. "Biden announces he's going down to Mexico, truthful present they're going to spell retired and drawback Ovidio," who has been facing U.S. criminal drug trafficking charges since his indictment successful New York successful 2018.

Based connected his conversations with existent DEA leaders, immoderate elder U.S. counternarcotics officials judge Mexico besides has been inflating the magnitude of fentanyl and different drugs it has seized astatine cartel "superlabs" wherever immense quantities of fentanyl and methamphetamine are produced conscionable southbound of the borderline for casual smuggling into the United States, according to Maltz, the peculiar cause successful complaint of DEA's Special Operations Division for astir 10 years earlier his status successful 2014. 

"I truly don't cognize for sure," added Maltz, who helped pb the planetary effort to seizure Ovidio's father, Joaquín Guzmán Loera. "But successful my opinion, unless it's sustained attacks against the cartel enactment and the accumulation labs, it's not going to marque a difference. Meanwhile, we person 9,000 Americans dying each month."

More: Biden says Mexico to measurement up assistance with borderline security, plans travel to El Paso border

'No secret' what both sides want

It’s nary concealed what Biden volition beryllium asking of López Obrador, and vice versa, erstwhile they conscionable successful Mexico City adjacent week connected the sidelines of the North American Leaders’ Summit. 

López Obrador wants the aforesaid happening from Biden arsenic Mexican leaders person been demanding for the past fractional a century: to trim the voracious American request for Mexican-made drugs that has created the multibillion-dollar achromatic marketplace system successful the archetypal place. He wants Washington to stem the travel of U.S.-manufactured guns smuggled into Mexico, which person allowed Sinaloa, Jalisco New Generation and different cartels to accumulate much firepower than astir authorities armies.

And Biden wants Mexico to stop  the flood of deadly narcotics coming into the United States, particularly fentanyl, which killed much Americans past twelvemonth than COVID-19, centrifugal conveyance accidents, crab and suicide. More discreetly, helium volition besides push Mexico to bash acold much to onslaught the rampant authorities corruption and collusion that for decades has allowed the cartels to flourish.

Working hard for a deal

Aides to some presidents person been moving down the scenes to tee up immoderate signifier of counternarcotics agreement, oregon astatine slightest signs of progress, that tin beryllium announced erstwhile the 2 meet.

On Friday, White House spokesperson John Kirby said Mexico already has taken "significant steps" to ace down connected fentanyl traffickers and referenced Guzman's arrest. "That is not an insignificant accomplishment by Mexican authorities, and we're surely grateful for that," Kirby told reporters. "So we're going to proceed to enactment with them successful lockstep to spot what we tin bash jointly to effort to bounds that flow."

Security analysts, however, told USA TODAY that the result is apt going to beryllium the aforesaid arsenic it has been aft akin summits attended by astir each U.S. president since Richard Nixon established the U.S. “War connected Drugs” conscionable implicit 50 years ago. There volition beryllium promises made by some sides to bash more, followed by the inevitable backsliding erstwhile it comes to turning those promises into reality.

That’s particularly the lawsuit due to the fact that counternarcotics relations betwixt Washington and Mexico City person been astatine an unusually debased constituent since AMLO, arsenic helium is popularly known, became president successful December 2018. Almost immediately, he threw retired the bilateral playbook the 2 countries had been utilizing to spell aft the cartels.

Even arsenic Mexico's execution complaint soared, López Obrador said helium had nary volition of going aft the cartels, alternatively focusing connected a much wholistic "Hugs, not bullets" attack that prioritized societal payment implicit instrumentality enforcement.

More: Biden plans to sojourn the U.S.-Mexico borderline for the archetypal clip successful his presidency

“These issues are precise difficult. They're precise hard. But look, you’ve got to restart immoderate of these conversations and have, again, a much constructive, honorable dialog betwixt the 2 countries to beget a framework, and statesman a process, that leads to greater action,” said David Luna, a erstwhile apical State Department authoritative who led bilateral efforts to combat the increasing menace of transnational cause cartels.

“You can’t conscionable absorption connected the cartels and the criminality," Luna said. "To marque greater progress, with greater results, you request to beryllium warring the enabling corruption and organized transgression that is helping to substance the insecurity and cartel unit successful Mexico."

Fighting corruption alongside criminality

The U.S.-Mexico information narration became adjacent much strained aft U.S. cause enforcement agents arrested the erstwhile Mexican defence minister, retired Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda, connected drug-trafficking-related corruption charges arsenic helium and his household arrived astatine Los Angeles International Airport connected Oct. 15, 2020. That each but dismantled bilateral instrumentality enforcement operations betwixt the 2 countries, particularly implicit cause traffickers.

To determination forward, Biden himself “needs to instrumentality a much nonstop role" successful pushing Mexico to woody overmuch much aggressively with the endemic corruption in the country, said Luna, the laminitis and enforcement manager of the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies. “President Biden indispensable spot greater accountability connected President Obrador to disrupt the amerciable fentanyl accumulation successful Mexico and to disrupt the assorted illicit trafficking flows.” 

Four demands Washington needs to make

Maltz, the erstwhile DEA Special Operations chief, outlined 4 demands that Biden should marque – and that helium says U.S. counternarcotics officials person been pushing for years.

The U.S. has indicted a “massive number” of elder cartel leaders who are inactive operating successful Mexico, including successful fentanyl trafficking, but who Mexico hasn’t captured or, much importantly, extradited to the United States to basal trial, Maltz told USA TODAY.

He besides said Washington has shared quality with Mexico galore times astir the “superlabs” that are producing record-breaking amounts of fentanyl, methamphetamine and different drugs conscionable southbound of the U.S. borderline that are past smuggled into the United States. “We’ve made historical seizures astatine the borderline and successful this country, but they person to spell aft the borderline labs with their elite units similar the Mexican Navy,” Maltz said.

He said the Cienfuegos apprehension “set america backmost many, galore years successful Mexico, and they are not being cooperative and they are not moving connected associated operational successes. And the laboratory seizures are mode down” successful Mexico, Maltz said

And Mexico needs to halt the travel of chemic precursors from China and India that are utilized to marque fentanyl and meth, and to instrumentality acold much assertive enactment against Chinese wealth launderers that are present moving successful tandem with the cartels.

“There’s truly a batch of vexation connected our broadside of the border,” Maltz said. “We are not getting capable from them.”

A 'very prickly nationalist'

Whether López Obrador volition beryllium responsive is anybody’s guess. He made headlines by not going to the Summit of Americas past July successful what was seen arsenic a large stroke to the U.S.-Mexico relationship. He made his 2nd sojourn to the White House successful 8 months soon after but tartly told Biden that helium was meeting “in spite of our differences and besides successful spite of our grievances that are not truly casual to hide with clip oregon with bully wishes.”

 "López Obrador is simply a precise prickly nationalist,” said erstwhile Mexico ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhán Casamitjana. He noted that the Mexican president sent a missive to Biden earlier the acme successful which helium continued to importune that 1 of the cardinal issues that he'll beryllium pressing is to guarantee that the U.S doesn't meddle successful the home affairs of different countries successful the Americas, including his own.

“This is portion of his 1960s, 1970s imaginativeness of the satellite and the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship," Sarukhán said. “So fixed that this is besides a Mexican government, that has truly benignant of ratcheted down the level of collaboration successful presumption of instrumentality enforcement and counternarcotics policy.”

Contributing: Rebecca Morin, Francesca Chambers