BIMCO: Chinese export container rates drop 27% - SAFETY4SEA - Safety4Sea

In this week’s “Shipping Number of the Week” from BIMCO, Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, examines the antithetic driblet successful Chinese export instrumentality rates which usually bask a spike successful the weeks starring up to Chinese New Year.

According to Mr. Rasmussen, the atrocious quality for liner operators appears to person nary end. In a mean year, the weeks starring up to Chinese New Year (CNY) bring an summation successful volumes and freight rates.

So far, however, the lead-up to CNY successful 2023 has been the worst successful 13 years. Spot rates for containers loading successful Shanghai volition usually beryllium 12% higher conscionable earlier CNY than 10 weeks earlier. Similarly, mean rates for each containers loading successful China volition usually extremity 4% higher. This year, some spot and mean rates, however, proceed to fall.

The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) measures mean Chinese export instrumentality rates. The scale has seen a 50% driblet since February 2022 and stood astatine 1,730 7 weeks ago. Rather than stabilising and past climbing towards CNY, it has continued to fall. Last week it deed 1,271 and has truthful dropped by a further 27% since mid-November.

From 2011 to 2020, the CCFI connected mean accrued 3% successful the 7 weeks from week 10 earlier CNY to week 3 earlier CNY. The worst twelvemonth was 2012 erstwhile the CCFI fell 6% during those 7 weeks portion the champion twelvemonth was 2020 with an 8% increase. The marketplace concern successful 2021 and 2022 was unsocial arsenic congestion and a spike successful user request led the market, and the lead-up to CNY was besides strong. So far, the improvement successful 2023 is truthful the worst successful thirteen years

said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst astatine BIMCO.

Credit: Shanghai Shipping Exchange

BIMCO further added that the CCFI is showing a worse than mean improvement successful each commercialized lanes. To Europe and Mediterranean, the scale has fallen by respectively 34% and 57% during the past 7 weeks whereas the scale for exports to the US West Coast and East Coast are down by 26% and 27% respectively.

During the past 7 weeks, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), which records mean instrumentality freight rates for exports retired of China, has, successful opposition to earlier successful 2022, besides dropped faster than spot rates for exports retired of Shanghai (as recorded by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)). The SCFI has fallen 23% whereas the CCFI has fallen 27%

added Mr. Rasmussen.

In implicit terms, the SCFI and CCFI stay respectively 18% and 49% higher than astatine the aforesaid clip successful 2019, and the complaint increases achieved during 2020 to 2022 person not yet been afloat erased.

In addition, proviso maturation is expected to outpace request maturation successful 2023 owed to the precocious fig of planned newbuilding deliveries and adhd further unit connected freight rates.

Cargo volumes whitethorn retrieve from existent levels erstwhile businesses person adjusted inventory levels, but it is improbable to beryllium capable to amended the supply/demand equilibrium unless each liner operators instrumentality enactment to lucifer capableness offered to marketplace developments, thing they truthful acold person seemingly been incapable oregon unwilling to do.