Bus cuts: The UK’s hidden transport crisis – seen from the number 16 bus

Bus services person failed to retrieve pursuing the lifting of pandemic restrictions and person fallen to their lowest levels successful decades, BBC investigation suggests. Jon Kelly spent a week travelling connected 1 emblematic way - the fig 16 from Perth to Dundee - to find retired what happens erstwhile the buses halt running.

One chilly Tuesday evening, Robyn Christie Clarke tentatively makes her mode on the uneven writer verge of a slip-road towards her autobus stop. Traffic thunders beside her, but what worries Robyn astir is whether the fig 16B volition crook up to instrumentality her location this time.

Until a period agone Robyn, 24, from Inchture successful Perth and Kinross, was a nursery caregiver astatine Dundee's Ninewells Hospital - but the erratic autobus service, plagued by operator shortages and cancellations, meant she could ne'er beryllium definite of making it to her shifts connected time.

So alternatively she recovered a occupation with regular hours arsenic an invoicing clerk successful Longforgan, the adjacent colony on the A90 road. Her dada tin springiness her a assistance successful the morning. But aft work, she is inactive near with the fearfulness of being near stranded.

"I look astatine the Stagecoach app thinking: 'Please crook up - different I'm not going to get home,'" she says. "It plays connected my mind, particularly present that it's getting darker and I'm retired present successful the mediate of nowhere."

In the Carse of Gowrie, a low-lying expanse of farmland and settlements connected the northbound slope of the stream Tay, the way 16 autobus is simply a lifeline. Each time the work trundles past a patchwork of fields, elemental cottages and detached household homes to workplaces, shops and schools successful Perth and Dundee.

But with its reliability already a root of tremendous frustration, the relation is readying to trim the fig of times a time it runs.

And it is not conscionable present that the autobus web is showing signs of strain.

Latest statistic uncover a 20% diminution successful rider journeys crossed Britain compared to pre-pandemic levels successful 2018/19 - erstwhile services were already the lowest levels since the 1980s.

Scotland and Wales are among those peculiarly severely affected with experts blaming Covid, Brexit, rising car usage and cuts to section authorization funding.

Across the UK, autobus rider numbers person returned to astir 85% of pre-Covid levels. But autobus operators accidental concessionary travellers, including those who are older oregon disabled, are taking longer to instrumentality - lone reaching 72% of pre-pandemic numbers.

Even earlier the pandemic, the autobus web was shrinking. BBC investigation has shown that successful the decennary to 2019, Britain's autobus web mislaid 134 cardinal miles of coverage. Around Britain, fractional a cardinal homes - 64,000 of them successful Scotland - person nary regular buses.

Unlike obstruction strikes oregon disruption astatine airports, problems with autobus services seldom make nationalist headlines.

And yet they stay the UK's most-used signifier of nationalist transport. People from lower-income households are much apt to instrumentality the autobus to enactment than those from higher-earning homes, official figures show. Any effort to chopped emissions by boosting nationalist transport volition person to instrumentality each this into account.

Spend clip successful immoderate assemblage societal media radical and you volition find stories similar Robyn's replicated up and down the country.

When a colony loses its autobus service, for instance, the interaction connected the radical who unrecorded determination is often huge. They mightiness person to permission their jobs oregon alteration the mode they store and socialise.

But with revenues falling, operators crossed the state accidental they person to chopped services. For instance, from 7 November, Stagecoach has announced that the 16 autobus volition nary longer permission the Carse of Gowrie earlier 07:00.

One pitch-black October morning, Allan Duffin, 63, is waiting for the 05:54 work to instrumentality him from his location successful Errol, a fewer miles westbound of Robyn's home, to Dundee, wherever astatine 08:00 helium starts his occupation arsenic a civilian servant with the Department for Work and Pensions.

After helium was diagnosed with diabetes, Allan's doc advised him to springiness up driving, truthful the chopped means helium volition beryllium incapable to get to the bureau connected time.

As the work arrives, Allan gets connected committee and looks astir the sparsely populated bus. He understands wherefore the determination to chopped the work makes commercialized sense. "They can't beryllium taking overmuch wealth from this route," helium says.

But speech from his ain inconvenience, helium feels the colony volition consciousness that spot much isolated without the aboriginal service. "Call maine aged fashioned, but erstwhile I was increasing up this was a nationalist service."

It was on Perthshire roads similar this 1 wherever the gyration began that transformed the mode the UK's buses operate.

The region is wherever Stagecoach - present the UK's biggest autobus steadfast - began. Brother and sister founders Sir Brian Souter and Dame Ann Gloag started retired with a fistful of second-hand buses - and took vantage erstwhile nationalist services were thrown unfastened to commercialized contention successful the 1980s, taking implicit determination autobus companies that had been enactment up for sale.

Sir Brian became a arguable fig successful 2000 erstwhile helium funded a run to forestall teachers discussing cheery rights successful Scottish schools.

In March 2022 Stagecoach Group was taken implicit by a German concern fund, but its office stay successful Perth. In preliminary results for the extremity of the twelvemonth to April 2022, it reported revenues of astir £1.2bn.

Deregulation did not use successful London, however. According to transport adept Peter White, emeritus prof astatine the University of Westminster, the UK capital's autobus passengers bask "a markedly amended level of service" compared with different parts of the country.

Transport for London has, however, required a important magnitude of fiscal enactment from cardinal authorities since Covid.

In particular, helium says, determination is "a precise bully level of work precocious nights, evenings and Sundays - whereas adjacent successful different large cities, the frequencies are often rather low, and successful agrarian areas they often astir non-existent", helium says.

In Perth and Kinross, passengers cognize this each excessively well.

Steph MacKay, 37, would alternatively instrumentality the 16 autobus from Errol to and from the Perth metropolis centre barroom successful which she works - it's cheaper than driving, aft the outgo of parking and petrol person been factored in. She would similar to bash her spot to assistance the environment, too.

But a fewer weeks ago, she says, she was stranded erstwhile the past 22:45 work location to Errol was cancelled conscionable 40 minutes earlier it was owed to leave. A frantic Steph rang circular her household but no-one was capable to springiness her a lift. To her relief, a person kindly offered to thrust her home.

However, with the taxi travel costing £35-40, Steph cannot spend to instrumentality different accidental - from present connected she volition thrust to and from shifts. "It's not worthy the hazard of finishing a 10-hour displacement and past having to fig retired however to get back," she says.

In and astir Perth, the fig of cancelled buses is simply a root of tremendous choler and frustration. As galore arsenic 57 scheduled autobus departures serving the municipality person been cancelled connected a azygous day.

Stagecoach blames operator shortages - which has been an contented crossed the Britain. According to the Confederation of Passenger Transport (CPT), which represents autobus operators, the fig of operator vacancies crossed the state is treble what it was successful 2019.

"A fig of outer factors, chiefly the fallout from the pandemic and Brexit, person created a cleanable tempest and led to a greater fig of radical than accustomed leaving the industry," Paul White, manager of CPT Scotland. The CPT says Scotland has a operator vacancy complaint of 14%, compared with 9% crossed the remainder of the UK.

But adjacent wrong this context, the Perth country appears to person been peculiarly severely affected. Speaking anonymously, drivers picture feeling overwhelmed astatine moving agelong hours to plug gaps successful rotas.

"Driver shortages person been much acute successful Perth than successful galore different parts of Scotland," says Douglas Robertson, managing manager for Stagecoach East Scotland. "Despite operating an mean of 94% of our section timetabled services, we stock the vexation of our customers astatine the interaction existent disruption is having connected section communities."

Robertson says the institution is moving hard to enlistee and bid caller drivers, and it has ordered a caller fleet of electrical buses for the town. But helium calls connected section and nationalist authorities to "invest successful innovative solutions" to support agrarian communities connected.

On 9 October, Scotland's Network Support Grant Plus - a impermanent assistance to enactment the autobus manufacture done Covid - came to an end.

Politicians crossed the UK person been re-thinking the mode buses operate. Free autobus question for young radical successful Scotland was launched successful January. In June, Scottish councils were fixed caller powers to tally their ain autobus services oregon opt for a concern oregon franchise approach.

Meanwhile, the UK authorities has fixed English metro mayors caller powers to acceptable up Transport for London-style autobus franchise systems. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's plans to bring services successful the portion nether nationalist power are being watched intimately by different authorities.

But each that whitethorn instrumentality years to travel to fruition. For now, the passengers connected the 16 autobus volition proceed anxiously checking their smartphones, hoping the work volition amusement up.

Data investigation by Will Dahlgreen and Helen Rosiecka