By the numbers: A two-conference College Football Playoff and the chances for one-loss teams

If you're funny successful watching SEC and Big Ten shot -- and just SEC and Big Ten shot -- this mightiness beryllium the College Football Playoff for you.

Augmented by Oregon picking up its 2nd nonaccomplishment of the play to Washington past weekend, determination is present a 34% accidental that the CFP is made up wholly of SEC and Big Ten teams, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. That's conscionable astir the aforesaid accidental that TCU has to gain a berth.

The 2 conferences are some successful the oddly fortunate presumption of having aggregate heavyweights successful the aforesaid division, meaning they are apt to extremity up successful a concern successful which a squad that does not extremity up going to the league title crippled is simply a beardown one-loss contender (Tennessee and either Michigan oregon Ohio State). That's however Alabama reached the CFP successful the 2017 season, erstwhile it went connected to triumph the nationalist championship.

Of the 2 conferences, the SEC is much apt to enactment aggregate teams successful the playoff (with a 66% accidental arsenic opposed to 53% accidental for the Big Ten) for a fewer reasons.

For starters, the apt 11-1 contender is Tennessee, which volition person a beardown résumé acknowledgment to a triumph implicit Alabama this season. That could beryllium capable to enactment the Volunteers implicit a one-loss Clemson and/or Michigan. Second, there's inactive an extracurricular accidental LSU wins out, frankincense opening the doorway for an LSU-Georgia combination. Lastly, the predictor does inactive judge Alabama -- without a way to the SEC title crippled -- has a slim chance, though it's just to wonderment if the exemplary is overrating that possibility, peculiarly fixed that it has a head-to-head nonaccomplishment against Tennessee.

The Big Ten tin enactment an 11-1 Michigan successful the CFP, but it's safest stake to putting 2 teams successful the playoff would beryllium for the Wolverines to bushed Ohio State and spell connected to triumph the conference. That's due to the fact that Ohio State would person a amended accidental arsenic a one-loss non-champion owed to its squad prime (No. 2 successful FPI rank).

Scenario

I find it adjuvant to really play retired a script and spot what the exemplary says.

Let's accidental Georgia, Ohio State, TCU and USC each triumph retired and Tennessee, Clemson and Michigan each decorativeness with 1 loss. That efficaciously leaves 4 teams -- Clemson, Tennessee, Michigan and USC -- for 1 spot. While that is excessively circumstantial of a script for the predictor to make nonstop probabilities, it thinks each 4 would person a chance, with Tennessee and Clemson the astir apt to instrumentality location the spot and USC the slightest likely.

Let's region TCU from the equation with a nonaccomplishment astatine Baylor. Now it's 4 teams for 2 spots, and we tin amusement probabilities for the 4 schools: Tennessee astatine 52%, Clemson 52%, Michigan 38%, USC 36%.

No substance what, it's a choky determination for the committee!

Ultimately from the model's perspective, Tennessee and Clemson each person thing to connection over, say, Michigan. Tennessee has the overmuch tougher docket (the Volunteers are projected to person the eighth-most hard spot of schedule, portion Michigan is expected to beryllium 35th toughest), and Clemson, portion it volition person an easier schedule, would person a league championship. None of that rules Michigan retired -- it conscionable moves the needle successful Tennessee's and Clemson's favor.

What astir USC?

The predictor is down connected the Trojans due to the fact that they person a anemic docket (56th-most difficult) and a mediocre Football Power Index fertile (14th). A league title could marque up for that, which is wherefore the Trojans decidedly person a chance. But those archetypal 2 factors are a drag.

So wherever does it permission these teams?

Aside from the evident request to triumph themselves, they should beryllium cheering for mayhem elsewhere. Tennessee fans privation Ohio State to bushed Michigan and for Clemson and USC to stumble.

USC is hoping for the same, minus its ain nonaccomplishment and possibly praying for a Volunteers upset nonaccomplishment to South Carolina.

Michigan, if it can't flooded Ohio State, would beryllium amended disconnected with Clemson, Tennessee and USC having imperfect finishes. Even TCU doesn't person it that simple: triumph and in, sure. But an 11-1 league champion TCU shouldn't beryllium wholly ruled retired either, depending connected what happens elsewhere.

The sanction of the game: Root for chaos.