By the numbers: Breaking down College Football Playoff scenarios

With 2 weeks left, there's 8 teams for 4 spots.

That's the overly simplified mentation of the College Football Playoff scenery close now, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Of course, the positions of those 8 teams are wildly antithetic from 1 another, truthful that's wherever we're going to trust connected the Predictor -- which uses FPI projections and predicts the committee's enactment process based connected its past behaviour -- to reply cardinal questions astir the playoff contention arsenic we adjacent the decorativeness line.

Who gets successful if everyone wins out?

Everyone, successful this case, is: Georgia, Ohio State (after beating an 11-0 Michigan successful Week 13), TCU, Clemson and USC.

That would marque 3 undefeated slam dunks successful the archetypal teams listed supra and effect successful a conflict for the last spot betwixt Michigan, USC and Clemson.

This is close! And it would beryllium a fascinating determination for the committee. Here's wherever the Playoff Predictor lands:

Michigan: 52%
USC: 31%
Clemson: 23%

(Note: those numbers adhd up to much than 100% connected the off-chance the committee decides to permission retired TCU).

So wherefore does the exemplary thin toward one-loss Michigan implicit the 2 one-loss league champs? Two cardinal factors: résumé and squad quality.

Outside of the league championship, we task that an 11-1 Michigan would really person a somewhat superior Strength of Record than a 12-1 USC oregon 12-1 Clemson, though it is exceptionally adjacent with the Trojans and could flip. Michigan is also, successful FPI's mind, the champion squad of the 3 -- by a lot. The Wolverines are ranked No. 4 successful FPI, portion Clemson and USC way astatine Nos. 9 and 14, respectively.

So from the model's position it sees a squad with the amended FPI and SOR, and that's usually the squad that gets the amended ranking. But the league title muddies the waters, which is wherefore this isn't wide astatine all.

What if Michigan, alternatively of Ohio State, ends up 13-0 successful the supra scenario?

That sets up what should beryllium a reasonably casual enactment process for the committee, with Georgia, Michigan and TCU virtual locks and Ohio State arsenic a dense favourite to onshore that past place.

Ohio State: 79%
USC: 16%
Clemson: 14%

The Buckeyes are the No. 2 ranked squad successful FPI and besides would person a somewhat stronger 11-1 SOR than an 11-1 Michigan, meaning Ohio State would besides beryllium up of USC and Clemson successful the résumé metric.

What happens if Michigan oregon Ohio State suffer successful the Big Ten title game?

This is excessively improbable for america to bash a full-blown scenario, but I deliberation we tin get the wide thought by conscionable plugging in, for starters, an Ohio State nonaccomplishment successful that crippled -- against whoever the hostile whitethorn beryllium (Iowa, Purdue and Illinois each inactive person a accidental to triumph the Big Ten West).

According to the Predictor, the Buckeyes would inactive person a 94% accidental to get into the playoff successful this scenario. That would driblet a small spot if Clemson, TCU and USC each won out, but it inactive would beryllium awfully apt Ohio State gets in.

For Michigan, it's a beauteous akin story: A nonaccomplishment successful the Big Ten title crippled -- which the Wolverines tin lone get to by beating Ohio State archetypal -- inactive gives them an 86% accidental astatine the playoff. Again, that would driblet a small spot if everything other went against them elsewhere, but they'd astir apt inactive get in.

Is a one-loss TCU finished?

The Predictor says: not necessarily, peculiarly if the nonaccomplishment is to Iowa State, and past TCU goes connected to triumph the Big 12 championship. At that point, TCU would beryllium a one-loss league champion with an mean spot of grounds fertile of 2.7. That's the résumé of a playoff team! Independent of results elsewhere, the Predictor says TCU would person a 71% changeable astatine the playoff successful this spot, which I deliberation mightiness beryllium a spot of a shock.

This drops to 64% if Clemson and USC besides triumph out. But from the model's perspective, TCU would person intelligibly the champion résumé of those 3 teams astatine that point.

Is determination immoderate accidental Alabama sneaks in?

*Whispers* Yes, there's a chance.

We mentioned determination are 8 teams with a changeable astatine the playoff astatine the apical and person talked astir six of them frankincense far. The seventh is LSU, which tin get successful by winning out. The eighth is Alabama. Consider this scenario:

• Georgia wins the SEC

• Ohio State wins out

• Clemson, TCU and USC each suffer successful league title games

In this concern determination are 3 teams virtually definite to get in: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. Who else? The Predictor leans TCU implicit Alabama 46% to 39%, but it's close! And if we springiness TCU a nonaccomplishment against Iowa State, too, past Alabama would beryllium the favourite for that 4th spot.

Is the Predictor overrating Alabama's chances to scope the CFP astatine 12% close now? Probably by a small bit. But is it intolerable the Crimson Tide get in? It is not.