By the numbers: Breaking down six possible College Football Playoff scenarios

Let's tally College Football Playoff scenarios.

That's genuinely my favourite facet of the Allstate Playoff Predictor. As we beryllium astir and wonderment who gets successful if X, Y and Z each happen, the Predictor has the answers. Or, astatine slightest a probabilistic forecast.

While the committee provides play rankings that connection penetration into its unusual corporate mind, it requires predicting the remainder of the play and forecasting what the committee mightiness bash successful a fixed script to find a team's playoff chances. So let's bash conscionable that and dive into imaginable ways the remainder of this assemblage shot play could play out.

And if we don't screen a script present you're wondering about, don't fret: you tin play along, too.

Scenario A: Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Oregon, Tennessee each triumph out, Michigan finishes 11-1

(Note: TCU astir surely loses successful this script -- we lone springiness them a 4% accidental to triumph retired -- but we don't specify that to support the fig of simulations up)

This triumph retired script ends up with a beauteous spicy determination for the enactment committee.

Georgia and Ohio State are in. But aft that, assuming TCU does suffer determination on the way, determination are nary different locks here! The Predictor has a virtual necktie for spots Nos. 3 and 4: with Tennessee and Oregon each with a 53% changeable to get in. Oregon would beryllium a one-loss league champion and Tennessee would beryllium a one-loss non-champion but against the toughest docket of immoderate playoff contender.

Clemson and Michigan aren't needfully retired present though: They person a 39% and 37% accidental to get in, respectively. Clemson would inactive beryllium a one-loss champion, but would person an easier spot of docket than Oregon successful a akin boat. Michigan, similarly, would beryllium a one-loss non-champion but against an easier docket than Tennessee.

How everyone gets to this spot could marque a quality for the committee, but successful wide the exemplary believes Tennessee and Oregon would person the edge.

Scenario B: Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Tennessee and USC (including reaching and winning the Pac-12 title game). Michigan finishes 11-1

We're subbing retired Oregon for USC here, but it's made somewhat much analyzable by the information that the Trojans tin triumph retired and not beryllium guaranteed a spot successful the Pac-12 title game. Let's accidental they do, though. Technically, we're beneath the threshold for fig of simulations to usage the projections, but let's rotation with these numbers anyhow -- don't archer my bosses.

In this scenario, Tennessee's chances leap to 62% to scope the CFP. And past the existent conflict comes down to Michigan vs. Clemson vs. USC. It's close: the Allstate Playoff Predictor would springiness Clemson a 44% chance, Michigan a 42% accidental and USC a 36% shot.

Compared to Oregon, USC is wounded by the information that it volition person played an easier docket and lone ranks 13th successful FPI. As for Clemson and Michigan? The committee's caller rankings person maine wondering if we're overrating Clemson's chances, adjacent though those ranks are incorporated into the model. Still, it would beryllium a one-loss league champion, which Michigan would not be.

Scenario C: TCU and Tennessee triumph out, Michigan finishes 11-1

We can't get excessively circumstantial present due to the fact that TCU winning retired is already truthful improbable that it cuts down connected the fig of simulations we look into. But successful this case, Ohio State, Georgia and TCU are successful and it comes down to Tennessee arsenic the favourite to instrumentality that past spot implicit Michigan astatine 11-1, though Oregon could propulsion a wrench successful if it, too, won out.

What if Ohio State mislaid to Michigan and the Buckeyes finished 11-1 instead? Then they would person the flimsy borderline arsenic the 4th squad to get successful implicit Tennessee, though that would beryllium acold from certain.

Scenario D: LSU loses astatine Arkansas and Texas A&M; Alabama wins out, defeating Georgia successful the SEC title game, Tennessee wins out

If anyone is looking for 3 SEC teams successful the CFP, this is the script for you. It inactive depends somewhat connected what happens elsewhere, but bent with maine for a moment.

The exemplary inactive assumes Ohio State is the astir apt squad to scope the CFP, intimately followed by 12-1 non-champion Georgia astatine 84%. One-loss non-champion Tennessee would beryllium astatine 70% and Alabama would inactive person a 55% accidental to get successful arsenic a two-loss SEC champion.

Could idiosyncratic other interruption successful determination if they got the results? Sure, a one-loss Oregon oregon Clemson mightiness person a case. They would person less losses than Alabama, though the Crimson Tide would beryllium league champs successful a much hard conference. Tennessee wouldn't person the league rubric but would person a much hard schedule. There mightiness beryllium an anti-three-teams-from-the-same-conference bias successful existent beingness that's not reflected successful the model, but they would person to astatine slightest see it.

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Heather Dinich assesses the chances that Tennessee, Oregon and LSU volition ace the Top 4 of the College Football Playoff Rankings.

Scenario E: Michigan, Oregon, Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee triumph out, Ohio State goes 11-1

We're again successful a satellite with precariously fewer simulations truthful we can't usage nonstop numbers here. But this script is murky arsenic each heck for the committee and the Predictor. Georgia and Michigan are in. But aft that? They could spell anywhere. The exemplary would genuinely person Oregon, Ohio State, Tennessee and Clemson each exceptionally adjacent to drawback the last 2 spots.

Scenario F: LSU wins out, beating different undefeated Georgia successful SEC title game, Ohio State wins out

Ohio State is successful and Georgia apt is excessively astatine 12-1, with a 76% shot, per the Predictor. Then, Tennessee astatine 59% and LSU astatine 56% (hey, look astatine that -- different mode 3 SEC teams could get in). There's a large but here, though. This is each without locking successful immoderate of the pursuing teams if they triumph out: Clemson, Oregon, USC oregon TCU.

If Oregon wins out, the Ducks apt leap up of Tennessee and LSU. If its Clemson? Then, it's up successful the aerial but the exemplary believes the Tigers would slot successful down the 2 SEC schools.