9:20 AM ET
Seth WalderESPN Analytics
Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Michigan and Tennessee.
Call them the "tier of six" due to the fact that much apt than not, the College Football Playoff volition beryllium made up wholly of that radical this year, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
After a chaotic Week 7, the playoff representation went from looking similar 3 dense favorites positive a chaotic paper to six teams warring for 4 spots.
Each of the six teams listed supra individually has astatine slightest a 49% accidental astatine the College Football Playoff, and each different squad is beneath 12%. The accidental that the CFP features 4 teams from that radical is 62%.
In addition, the 14 astir apt playoff combinations exclusively diagnostic those six teams.
The playoff contention isn't precisely conscionable six teams warring for 4 spots now. Undefeated Ole Miss (11% accidental astatine the playoff) inactive controls its destiny and would adjacent person an extracurricular changeable if it mislaid to Alabama and finished astatine 11-1 without winning the SEC West. Texas (8%) has 2 losses but could inactive person a accidental if it ran the table, peculiarly since 1 of those losses was to Alabama. USC (8%) could triumph retired and scope the CFP contempt its nonaccomplishment to Utah past weekend. And TCU (6%) is undefeated, too, though FPI is somewhat little of a instrumentality of the Horned Frogs than immoderate of the erstwhile teams mentioned, truthful it thinks it's somewhat little apt TCU tin instrumentality vantage of its favorable position.
So each of those teams could enactment their mode into the playoff. But they are not apt to. And again, the astir apt effect is that 4 teams from the tier of six extremity up successful the CFP. Why is that, and what questions bash we person astir that group? Let's dive in.
Why does Alabama person a amended accidental astatine the CFP than Tennessee?
Alabama whitethorn person suffered a nonaccomplishment astatine the hands of the Volunteers, but the Allstate Playoff Predictor does not abide by canvass logic. It's existent that the Volunteers are undefeated and besides could rather conceivably marque the playoff arsenic an 11-1 squad with a nonaccomplishment to an eventual SEC champion Georgia (therefore apt besting an 11-2 Alabama team). But Alabama and Tennessee are not the same.
Despite Alabama's nonaccomplishment to the Volunteers, FPI considers the Crimson Tide astir 8 points per crippled amended connected a neutral field. Therefore: Alabama is conscionable much apt to triumph games. It's adjacent now, of course, but Alabama is inactive somewhat much apt to scope the CFP.
Can Ohio State and Michigan scope the CFP together?
Absolutely. In fact, there's a 37% accidental the 2 rivals some marque it to the CFP, and 5 of the 10 astir apt playoff combinations diagnostic the 2 rivals.
The crushed that fig is truthful precocious is that some teams are important favorites successful each crippled until they look each different connected Nov. 26 successful Columbus, successful a crippled Ohio State is simply a 75% favourite in, per FPI. If Michigan wins retired until that game, past loses to Ohio State and finishes arsenic an 11-1 non-champion, it would inactive person a 51% accidental to scope the playoff. In a relation reversal wherever Ohio State mislaid to Michigan and finished 11-1, the Buckeyes would person a 68% chance.
Because of that scenario, there's a reasonably decent accidental they some scope the playoff and could adjacent look each different a 2nd clip this season.
What's chalk?
While we can't fastener successful a effect for each crippled -- that would make excessively circumstantial of a script for the Predictor to reasonably measurement successful connected - we tin constrictive it down a lot. So let's effort this chalky scenario:
• Georgia wins the SEC title crippled implicit Alabama
• Tennessee wins each crippled but for a nonaccomplishment to Georgia
• Ohio State wins the Big Ten
• Michigan wins each crippled but for a nonaccomplishment to Ohio State
• Clemson wins the ACC
There's a 1 successful 20 changeable that each of that precisely happens. If it does Ohio State and Georgia are playoff locks, and determination would beryllium uncertainty implicit the last 2 spots.
Clemson would beryllium a 65% favourite to drawback 1 of the playoff berths, followed by Tennessee astatine 58%, Michigan astatine 41% and Alabama astatine 23%. In different words: if the chalk holds, it could make an awfully absorbing script for the enactment committee.
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