Nov 4, 2022
Seth WalderESPN Analytics
Tennessee earning the No. 1 effect successful the archetypal College Football Playoff enactment committee's ranking wasn't conscionable a bully compliment for the Volunteers: It really accrued their accidental to scope the playoff by a tiny amount.
The archetypal rankings travel respective weeks and galore games earlier the last enactment but the committee's archetypal decisions inactive connection a awesome into its eventual ranks. And that awesome is instantly incorporated into the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
By virtuousness of earning the No. 1 ranking now, Tennessee's accidental to scope the CFP crept up to 63% from 60% connected Tuesday night. Its accidental to triumph the nationalist title accrued to 11% from 10%.
While the Volunteers had the No. 1 spot of grounds entering the archetypal enactment and the committee tends to thin connected résumé implicit squad strength, the exemplary would not person been amazed if the committee had gone a antithetic absorption fixed that Tennessee lone ranks 5th successful FPI. Ohio State ranks 2nd successful SOR and archetypal successful FPI.
How does the archetypal fertile matter? It's a ballot of assurance from the committee present that could construe to breathing country for the Volunteers. It's casual to ideate however Tennessee could suffer this play astatine Georgia and past decorativeness astatine 11-1 without reaching the league title game. That nonstop script has much than a 55% accidental of occurring. And successful that situation, the Volunteers person a 67% changeable astatine the playoff, according to the Predictor. That would beryllium a small little if they were starting from a lesser rank.
And however astir TCU? Fans of the undefeated Horned Frogs had to consciousness disrespected with the No. 7 fertile the squad received, and rightfully so! TCU ranks 3rd successful spot of grounds and -- if you're asking maine -- résumé is each that should matter. But that's an aside.
The chaotic happening from the model's perspective: The Allstate Playoff Predictor thought it really could person been worse for TCU, and upgraded the Horned Frogs' chances of reaching the CFP to 12% from 11% aft the rankings.
How could that be? Well, TCU ranks lone 14th successful FPI, truthful from the Predictor's standpoint, the Horned Frogs landing seventh isn't retired of measurement with however the committee usually behaves. It often correlates with immoderate operation of spot of grounds and FPI.
(Another aside: One critique we often perceive for metrics-based approaches to selecting the playoff is that priors should beryllium removed. In different words: The lone enactment that should substance is enactment from this season. And I agree! That would marque sense. TCU ranks eighth successful efficiency, an approximation of what its FPI fertile mightiness beryllium without priors. With that benignant of fertile and a No. 3 spot successful SOR, it would beryllium precise hard to warrant a seventh-ranking for the Horned Frogs. In different words, it's tenable to speculate that their estimation from earlier this season, comparative to teams specified arsenic Alabama oregon Michigan, is hurting them with the committee.)
One happening that volition person a overmuch larger interaction connected the playoff contention than the committee's archetypal ranks? The Week 10 games. In fact, 3 of the 4 astir impactful scheduled games connected the playoff contention near this play are taking spot this week. Let's dive into them.
Tennessee astatine Georgia
Tennessee accidental to scope CFP with win: 83%
Tennessee accidental to scope CFP with loss: 56%
Georgia accidental to scope CFP with win: 78%
Georgia accidental to scope CFP with loss: 40%
You'll announcement Tennessee has a amended accidental to scope the CFP with a triumph than Georgia with a win, and a amended accidental to scope the CFP with a nonaccomplishment than Georgia with a loss. And yet, currently, Georgia has a amended accidental to scope the playoff. How tin that be? Because portion Tennessee whitethorn beryllium No. 1, Georgia is simply a beauteous dense favourite (74%) successful this game, according to FPI.
We mentioned earlier that Tennessee has a 2-in-3 changeable astatine the playoff if it loses to Georgia and finishes 11-1. What astir the inverse scenario? Georgia would lone person a 51% shot, fundamentally a axenic coin flip. The large difference? Even if Tennessee loses to Georgia it volition person beaten Alabama.
Alabama astatine LSU
Alabama accidental to scope CFP with win: 59%
Alabama accidental to scope CFP with loss: 19%
LSU accidental to scope CFP with win: 5%
LSU accidental to scope CFP with loss:
Alabama surely wouldn't power its playoff destiny with a loss, but the Predictor thinks the Crimson Tide would inactive person an extracurricular changeable adjacent if the Tigers triumph this one. That's for a mates of reasons. First, Alabama would inactive person a tiny changeable astatine winning the SEC. Second, adjacent if it ended up 10-2, the Crimson Tide mightiness not wholly beryllium retired of it due to the fact that of however beardown its FPI fertile is (2nd) and however hard its docket is (4th-most difficult). It would request chaos elsewhere, but it's astatine slightest possible.
For two-loss LSU, it's beauteous simple: triumph out.
Clemson astatine Notre Dame
Clemson accidental to scope CFP with win: 65%
Clemson accidental to scope CFP with loss: 30%
There's lone 1 mode for Clemson to power its destiny for the playoff: decorativeness 13-0. And that's wherefore this crippled is truthful crucial; Clemson lone has a 65% accidental to win.
Even though Clemson tin suffer to Notre Dame and inactive spell connected to triumph the ACC, the information that Clemson isn't ranked arsenic highly by FPI (7th) and has a anemic spot of docket (62nd) means that the committee surely could permission the Tigers retired arsenic 12-1 ACC champs. If the Tigers bash suffer to the Fighting Irish and past decorativeness 12-1, they volition person a 55% changeable astatine the CFP.
English (US)