Can Nottingham Forest really win the Premier League?

Leicester stunned the satellite successful 2016 erstwhile they won the the Premier League - but could Nottingham Forest beryllium astir to bash the same?

Third successful the Premier League with the associated second-best defence successful the part and the astir cleanable sheets, this rejuvenated nine are nary longer the astonishment package.

Victory against Liverpool connected Tuesday would adjacent their nine grounds of 7 consecutive top-flight wins, acceptable successful 1922 - and, if they are capable to complete the double implicit the Premier League leaders, they volition beryllium conscionable 3 points down them.

This each comes aft past season's battles. They survived connected the last day, finishing 17th, having incurred a four-point deduction for breaching nett and sustainability rules.

A arguable societal media post, refereeing rows, VAR complaints and a managerial change each contributed to a turbulent season.

Arguably - and successful August immoderate astatine the City Ground agreed - Forest needed a play of anonymity. A fuss-free run would person represented advancement connected and disconnected the pitch.

However, nether December's manager of the period Nuno Espirito Santo they person outstripped anticipation successful spectacular style.

On the 70 occasions that teams person earned 40 points oregon much from their archetypal 20 games successful a Premier League campaign, lone 4 sides person failed to decorativeness wrong the apical 4 astatine the extremity of the season.

Since 2000, the mean points needed to triumph the Premier League has been 89.2, with 81.6 for second, 74.5 for third, 69.5 for 4th and 65.6 for fifth.

Despite that, Opta's predictions exemplary inactive gives Forest 0% accidental of winning the rubric and lone 0.7% of finishing second, which contrasts with the assurance wrong the squad.

"We are successful this combat for the rubric due to the fact that we merit to be," says Forest defender Morato.

Liverpool brag Arne Slot agrees, saying connected Monday that Forest "definitely are a squad that is successful contention with america and with the different teams" astatine the top.

The comparisons to East Midlands rivals Leicester are unavoidable.

The Foxes' 5,000-1 rubric triumph successful 2016 was 1 of sport's top achievements, with Leicester having initially been 1 of the favourites for relegation aft pulling disconnected a large flight successful the play before.

Claudio Ranieri's broadside won the league by 10 points and mislaid conscionable 3 games. They were connected 40 points aft 20 games successful 2015-16, the aforesaid full arsenic Forest person now.

Leicester's occurrence was built connected Jamie Vardy's pace, the menace of Riyad Mahrez and Marc Albrighton connected the flanks and the vigor of N'Golo Kante successful midfield.

Wes Morgan skippered them to the rubric having joined from Forest successful 2012 aft a 10-year vocation astatine the City Ground.

"The past fewer games, erstwhile it's successful touching distance, things get a spot twitchy, and you commencement thinking, 'Right, we cannot gaffe up'," said Morgan.

"Whereas earlier it was 'there's thing to lose, we're doing great. Let's conscionable support going.'"

Defender Morgan made 323 appearances for the Foxes and besides won the FA Cup successful 2021.

Explaining the process of chasing the title, Morgan said: "When you're truthful adjacent to that goal, to achieving thing no-one thought would beryllium possible, you commencement disconnected taking things a spot more... I don't privation to accidental earnestly due to the fact that we ever instrumentality it seriously, but there's a batch much accent successful making definite we bash things right."

Forest person the Vardy-like focal constituent of 12-goal Chris Wood, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga retired wide and Morgan Gibbs-White joined by Elliot Anderson successful midfield.

Forest person been described arsenic the Premier League's champion counter-attackers, but the statistic accidental otherwise.

Their 33 accelerated breaks person culminated successful 29 shots but conscionable 4 goals. It is simply a amazingly debased fig considering however unsafe Forest person been.

Tottenham person scored the astir breakaway goals - 10 - portion Chelsea, Liverpool and Wolves person each scored much than Forest.

Elanga has 3 goals successful his past 5 games - but they were his archetypal since past February. He has 4 assists, too, portion Hudson-Odoi has 2 goals and 2 assists. There is small uncertainty determination needs to beryllium much extremity merchandise from both.

Forest person a conversion complaint of 31.9% for their large chances, scoring 15 of their 47. Elanga and Hudson-Odoi person created six specified chances betwixt them, the aforesaid fig arsenic Morgan Gibbs-White.

Their possession is besides the lowest successful the Premier League astatine 39.4% and lone the bottommost 5 of Everton, Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves and Southampton person a worse xG - their expected goals tally - than Forest's 25.9.

Nuno's broadside person made conscionable 929 passes into the last third, with lone Southampton [887] and Ipswich [925] managing fewer. Arsenal apical that illustration with 3,192.

The numbers suggest Forest are defying information trends, but they are ruthless and effective, portion Nuno has besides praised their spirit.

After beating Burnley to seal endurance connected the last time past season, Nuno told the squad 1 of the reasons they had stayed up was due to the fact that of their characters, calling them bully guys.

He likes to enactment with a tiny squad, allowing everyone to consciousness they person a accidental of making the team, which besides fosters a togetherness.

"It's not yet bully enough," helium said, joking astir the tone past week. "It means a batch to the squad; erstwhile they person peculiar moments everyone sees however blessed they are."

On 1 February past twelvemonth Forest announced the signing of Matz Sels from Ligue 1 broadside Strasbourg for a interest of astir £5m.

Matt Turner had joined from Arsenal for £10m successful the summertime before, portion Forest besides bought Benfica's Odysseas Vlachodimos.

Turner made 21 appearances successful each competitions and Vlachodimos seven, earlier Nuno - who replaced Steve Cooper successful December 2023 - turned to Sels.

The Belgian caller accomplishment managed conscionable 1 cleanable expanse - against West Ham - and conceded 27 times arsenic Forest survived.

However, with the summation of Milenkovic and Morato successful defence implicit the summer, joining the awesome Brazilian Murillo astatine the City Ground, they present boast 1 of the tightest backlines.

"Forest volition bash good to support clasp of Murillo agelong term. He's an unbelievable young player," said Morgan, who is present a nationalist scout astatine Forest, having played implicit 400 games for the Reds earlier switching to Leicester.

"Milenkovic has travel on and conscionable complemented him. Positioning betwixt some players is bully and I deliberation that's cardinal to a palmy defence."

Morgan related it to the concern helium and Robert Huth had astatine Leicester, adding: "That knowing betwixt maine and Huthy, we could play with our eyes closed and I knew precisely wherever helium was going to be. That's the aforesaid for Murillo and Milenkovic."

The antiaircraft unit, including Sels, Ola Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato and Neco Williams has outgo Forest conscionable implicit £50m.

Along with Liverpool, Forest person conceded conscionable 19 goals successful 20 games - lone Arsenal person shipped less.

"The title is not implicit yet and we privation to marque definite that the fig of cleanable sheets lone continues to spell up," says Morato, underlining the determination wrong the squad, who person made the astir clearances successful the league - 563 - this season.

Sels has faced 259 shots, level with Crystal Palace's Dean Henderson, and lone down Brentford's Mark Flekken with 342 and Mads Hermansen of Leicester who has faced 287.

Not each of those shots went connected target, but Sels has been kept engaged capable and has excelled. He has a prevention percent of 75.3%, which is the highest of immoderate goalkeeper who has played much than 500 minutes successful the Premier League.

The expected goals against Forest this play - 21.7 - is besides lone beaten by Liverpool and Arsenal.

Sels' interaction has been instant. Since 1 February, Forest person conceded 46 goals successful the Premier League, with lone Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool bettering them.

While the defence has impressed, Wood has grabbed the bulk of the headlines.

The New Zealand planetary has 12 goals successful each competition, including the 2nd successful past Monday's 3-0 triumph astatine Wolves.

The triumph astatine Molineux could person been scripted beforehand. A breakaway extremity from Gibbs-White and a tap-in by Wood from Hudson-Odoi's transverse had them 2-0 up astatine half-time.

Whether the header writers volition beryllium capable to foretell the result of Tuesday's lucifer is debatable.

Forest's triumph astatine Anfield successful September, acknowledgment to Hudson-Odoi's goal, came with conscionable 30% possession and they made little than fractional the magnitude of passes [273 to Liverpool's 604] of their hosts.

Forest made 3 antiaircraft blocks from goal-bound shots and 30 clearances, portion Sels made 5 saves.

Nuno utilized 5 cardinal midfielders to stifle the Reds and helium is apt to combat Slot's broadside successful a akin mode again. Forest usage a mid-block, which allows them to triumph the shot backmost and nutrient abstraction for their wingers which different would not beryllium determination if possession came higher up.

In a congested midfield, which could hap connected Tuesday, determination would beryllium small abstraction for Liverpool to exploit.

Per crippled this season, Forest fertile past successful possession and 19th for final-third pressures and sequences of much than 10 passes.

Yet they are the kings of the clearances and person an mean of 4.1 defenders down the shot for each changeable faced, different league best.

Liverpool's xG of 44.5 is adjacent to treble Forest's and they person scored 35 of their 85 large chances. Their expected goals against of 17.9 is besides the champion this play successful the division.

The squad Slot inherited from Jurgen Klopp are utilized to games against imaginable rubric rivals. This Forest broadside are successful caller territory.

The nine person not featured successful European contention since 1995-96 during Frank Clark's reign, portion earlier this period marked the 50th day of Brian Clough's appointment - their springboard to fondly remembered glory days astatine location and connected the continent.

Are the caller procreation successful this peculiar rubric race?

"I deliberation you cannot accidental no, conscionable due to the fact that of the presumption they're in, the points they person and their form," said Morgan.

"It's a gangly bid but thing could hap successful football."