CFP rankings takeaways: What we learned and what it means for Rivalry Week

A two-loss squad has ne'er made the College Football Playoff, but astatine No. 5 this week, LSU (9-2) inched 1 measurement person to making history.

In the astir notable determination from an different predictable apical six, the CFP enactment committee deemed the Tigers a notch supra one-loss USC, which is coming disconnected its champion triumph of the season, a 48-45 roadworthy triumph against No. 18 UCLA. The Trojans besides person a CFP Top 25 triumph against No. 21 Oregon State, but the committee bumped LSU up 1 spot aft Tennessee mislaid 63-38 to still-unranked South Carolina and dropped from No. 5 to No. 10.

That aforesaid Tennessee squad bushed LSU 40-13 successful Baton Rouge.

LSU, though, has wins against No. 7 Alabama and No. 20 Ole Miss, and the 32-31 overtime triumph against the Tide connected Nov. 5 is intelligibly carrying value successful the room, on with the information the Tigers person clinched the SEC West and volition look Georgia successful the SEC title game. With LSU connected the bubble, determination should beryllium small uncertainty the Tigers tin decorativeness successful the apical 4 connected Selection Day connected Dec. 4 if they bushed Texas A&M connected Saturday and Georgia successful the SEC championship.

"It came up implicit and implicit again to marque sure, and there's reasons for some teams, but the committee astatine the extremity of the time saw the wins implicit Alabama and Mississippi arsenic stronger than the wins implicit UCLA and Oregon State," enactment committee seat Boo Corrigan said. "One country we inactive person questions connected is the spot of the defence of USC, and looking astatine it successful its entirety, we judge that LSU deserved to beryllium ranked 5 and SC 6."

The anticipation of LSU winning the SEC should interest each different contender -- particularly the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan crippled Saturday -- due to the fact that it sustains the anticipation of 2 SEC teams finishing successful the apical four.

Again.

Here's what the 4th of six rankings means to the biggest rivalry games of Week 13, ranked successful bid of their top impact:

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1. Michigan astatine Ohio State

If Michigan wins: The Wolverines triumph the Big Ten East and presumption themselves arsenic the Big Ten's apical playoff contender. Ohio State would request Georgia to tally the array and bushed LSU, eliminating the anticipation of 2 SEC teams (it's happened doubly before: 2017 and 2021), and it would assistance the Buckeyes tremendously if Notre Dame beats USC and knocks retired the Pac-12. Ohio State would beryllium banking connected wins against Notre Dame and Penn State to impressment the enactment committee to get successful astatine the disbursal of a one-loss ACC champion Clemson. Ohio State has 5 wins implicit existent FPI top-40 teams -- by an mean of 22.4 PPG.

If Ohio State wins: The Buckeyes would triumph the Big Ten East and look arsenic the league's apical playoff contender. Michigan would request its triumph against No. 11 Penn State and crippled movie to trump a Power 5 league champion. Much similar Ohio State, Michigan needs Georgia to triumph the SEC and destruct LSU and the anticipation of 2 SEC teams, and it needs USC to suffer to Notre Dame and destruct the Pac-12. Michigan's biggest occupation is its nonconference docket (Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn), which is the 2nd weakest successful the FBS. Right now, though, Michigan is No. 4 successful ESPN's spot of grounds metric, portion Clemson is No. 6. If Michigan loses, it would person 4 wins against teams ranked presently successful the apical 40 of FPI (PSU, Illinois, Iowa and Maryland) and 2 of those 4 wins were by 1 possession.

2. Notre Dame astatine USC

If Notre Dame wins: The Pac-12 is eliminated from the playoff due to the fact that its champion would person astatine slightest 2 losses, and USC is already looking up astatine a two-loss team. A Notre Dame triumph would besides assistance Ohio State's résumé, giving the Buckeyes different tiny boost successful lawsuit they don't bushed Michigan.

If USC wins: The Pac-12's hopes would stay strong, and USC could leap LSU and ace the apical 4 successful the committee's 5th ranking aft the loser of Ohio State-Michigan falls out. Even if USC wins the Pac-12, though, and ends its play with 3 consecutive wins against CFP Top 25 opponents, determination could inactive beryllium a debate. USC needs Georgia to tally the array and destruct LSU, on with the anticipation of 2 SEC teams successful the apical four. The best-case script for USC would beryllium for Ohio State to triumph the Big Ten, due to the fact that the Trojans are much apt to triumph a résumé conflict against Michigan arsenic runner-up. With Notre Dame arsenic a communal hostile with Ohio State, that could get tricky depending connected however the crippled plays out. If Georgia, Ohio State and TCU are in, one-loss USC seems to person separated itself from one-loss Clemson successful the committee gathering room. The question would beryllium if the opponents successful their respective league title games alteration that perception, and if the committee is bothered much by Clemson's mean offense, oregon USC's porous defense.

"I deliberation we're looking for a stronger showing by the defense," Corrigan said. "As a committee, a much ascendant triumph successful those situations to proceed to determination forward."

3. South Carolina astatine Clemson

If Clemson wins: The Tigers volition debar elimination but stay a fringe CFP squad successful request of assistance beyond an ACC title. No squad ranked little than No. 7 astatine this constituent successful the play has ever made the playoff. Clemson's triumph against No. 16 Florida State continues to assistance the Tigers, and North Carolina dropped lone 4 spots aft its dreadful nonaccomplishment to Georgia Tech connected Saturday. It besides helped Clemson that Louisville popped into the ranking this week astatine No. 25. Clemson could decorativeness the play with 3 wins against CFP Top 25 teams but volition beryllium dinged by the committee for its 35-14 nonaccomplishment to Notre Dame successful South Bend. If Clemson finishes successful the apical four, that 21-point shortage would beryllium the third-largest regular-season nonaccomplishment by a CFP semifinalist. The nonaccomplishment to Notre Dame, though, could beryllium 1 origin that keeps the Tigers retired due to the fact that the committee besides compares communal opponents, and USC and Ohio State besides volition person played Notre Dame. In bid to person a realistic chance, Clemson needs to tally the array and anticipation for immoderate operation oregon each of the following: a TCU loss, Georgia to tally the array and triumph the SEC, and a two-loss Pac-12 champion.

The committee has immoderate questions astir what it sees from Clemson's offense.

"Will Shipley from Clemson is simply a dynamic subordinate for them," Corrigan said. "I deliberation they've had possibly a small spot of ups and downs with regards to the backmost presumption that we've talked astir successful the room."

If South Carolina wins: The ACC is eliminated. Clemson and Coastal Division champion North Carolina would each participate the league rubric crippled with 2 losses, and neither of them has played good capable oregon has the résumé to compensate for that.

Anger index

During the archetypal fewer rankings reveals, a communal refrain is offered: These rankings don't truly mean anything.

Well, astatine this point, that conception tin mostly beryllium forgotten due to the fact that portion there's inactive overmuch to beryllium decided, there's besides small precedent for a squad not already successful the apical 4 oregon conscionable extracurricular of it making the playoff. And fixed the deficiency of important shakeups to the rankings without a squad losing (see: USC stays down LSU this week successful spite of its large triumph implicit UCLA), the committee has mostly decided who it thinks is best, and a fewer teams person a existent crushed to reason with those decisions.

1. Clemson Tigers (No. 8)

Let's bash a small unsighted résumé reappraisal here.

Team A: 10-1, No. 6 spot of record, No. 56 spot of schedule, 3 wins by a TD oregon much implicit teams ranked successful the apical fractional of FBS, 2 wins vs. presently ranked teams, nonaccomplishment to a top-15 opponent.

Team B: 10-1, No. 9 spot of record, No. 58 spot of schedule, 1 triumph by a TD oregon much implicit teams ranked successful the apical fractional of FBS, 2 wins vs. presently ranked teams, nonaccomplishment to a top-15 opponent.

Extremely akin profiles, but you'd springiness Team A the flimsy edge, right? Well, Team A is Clemson. Team B is USC, ranked 2 spots higher and acold amended positioned to marque the playoff if the presumption quo mostly holds.

Why is Clemson dinged successful a mode the Trojans aren't? Well, USC mislaid by a constituent to Utah, which was ranked astatine the time. Clemson mislaid by 21 to a Notre Dame squad that was not ranked astatine the time. Context matters.

Here's immoderate further context: Clemson surrendered 21 points to Notre Dame connected 2 turnovers and a blocked punt. USC was really +1 successful turnover borderline against Utah (though it didn't crook into points). There's a genuine accomplishment progressive successful turnover margin, but there's besides a batch of luck and situational differences involved, too. Play a crippled escaped of turnovers and fundamentally Clemson played Notre Dame astir the aforesaid mode USC played Utah. But, of course, those turnovers happened, and a 21-point nonaccomplishment is inactive worse than a one-point defeat. But if we're splitting hairs here, it's worthy considering each the context, not conscionable the aboveground level metrics.

Of course, there's different contented with Clemson that pundits person discussed: The Tigers aren't doing thing peculiarly well. USC's discourtesy is astounding, adjacent if the defence is simply a mess. Clemson is... fine. There's precise small to get excited astir -- adjacent if there's thing to specifically critique either.

So let's look astatine different comparison:

Team A: 10-1, 5-1 vs. FPI apical 50, 36.5 points per crippled and 19.7 points per crippled allowed vs. FBS foes, 48.7% violative occurrence complaint vs. FBS, 62.7% antiaircraft occurrence rate, 5 wins by much than a touchdown.

Team B: 10-1, 5-1 vs. FPI apical 50, 34.7 points per crippled and 20.8 points per crippled allowed vs. FBS foes, 47.2% violative occurrence complaint vs. FBS, 62.6% antiaircraft occurrence rate, 7 wins by much than a touchdown

Who's been the much awesome team? Maybe a flimsy borderline for Team A, but some beauteous evenly matched, right? Well, Team B is this year's Clemson team. Team A is Clemson done 11 games successful 2016, erstwhile the Tigers went connected to triumph a nationalist championship.

Clemson whitethorn not beryllium large astatine thing astatine the moment, but it's beauteous bully astatine astir everything. And Clemson's nonaccomplishment whitethorn look ugly, but erstwhile the Tigers person avoided turnovers, they've handled their contention with ease.

And yet, present they are, ranked No. 8 -- a ranking that seems to travel with a connection from the committee. Clemson volition not lone request to triumph out, but it needs to person a batch of different things spell close if it wants to marque the playoff. No squad ranked extracurricular the apical 7 astatine this constituent has ever made the last four.

2. Tennessee Volunteers (No. 10)

When South Carolina hangs 63 connected you, there's truly nary mode to enactment a bow connected that and marque it look good. It was a brutally atrocious nonaccomplishment for the Volunteers. But the committee is expected to debar recency bias and look astatine the entirety of the season, not conscionable what happened past week. And that brings america to this important point: Tennessee, LSU and Alabama each person 2 losses. Tennessee has wins implicit some LSU and Alabama. Alabama and LSU are some ranked up of Tennessee.

If the committee's constituent is that Tennessee was overrated earlier and the South Carolina crippled revealed immoderate antecedently chartless flaw, past OK. Dropping the Vols makes sense. But past the losses suffered by LSU and Alabama astatine the hands of Tennessee should beryllium re-evaluated, too.

There's nary implicit math, nary cleanable look for creating playoff rankings. But the astir evident and easiest metric is head-to-head performance, due to the fact that for each we tin accidental we deliberation we cognize astir teams, thing matters much than what really happens connected the field. So erstwhile each other is equal, caput to caput should beryllium the eventual enactment of demarcation. Instead, the committee has decided that 1 atrocious nonaccomplishment to South Carolina is much important than head-to-head wins implicit 2 teams it ranks higher.

3. Washington Huskies (No. 13)

That lawsuit we conscionable made for Tennessee? Copy and paste that here. Washington has the aforesaid grounds arsenic Oregon, bushed Oregon caput to head, and portion it besides has a worse wide loss, it has the amended wide résumé.

4. Coastal Carolina, Troy and UTSA (all unranked)

There's nary bully statement for a Group of 5 squad to marque the playoff this season, arsenic determination has been successful astir past years. But the contention for a New Year's Six bid remains wide open. The lone occupation is, the committee has fundamentally decided that whoever wins the American Athletic Conference deserves the bid, wholly ignoring UTSA (8-2 with lone a two-point nonaccomplishment to Houston and a nonaccomplishment to No. 23 Texas).

Perhaps the lackluster show of Conference USA explains that oversight, but the Sun Belt has really been rather bully this season, and yet Coastal Carolina (9-1) and Troy (9-2 with a four-point nonaccomplishment connected a last-second Hail Mary to Appalachian State and a roadworthy nonaccomplishment to No. 20 Ole Miss) get nary emotion either. There's nary clear-cut champion squad extracurricular the Power 5 this year, but it feels similar what could easy beryllium a six- oregon seven-team contention for the New Year's Six spot is being boiled down to a mates of games deciding the American instead.

5. Minnesota (unranked)

We're shedding nary tears for the Gophers. Lose to Iowa, and gain nary pity. That's a elemental rule. But it's worthy pointing retired that Minnesota is 7-4, ranked No. 17 successful SP+ and No. 21 successful FPI. No unranked squad successful either metric ranks higher. Then again, don't suffer to Iowa.

How a 12-team playoff would look

Everyone with the powerfulness to grow the College Football Playoff wants the tract to turn to 12 teams successful clip for the 2024 season.

But currently, enlargement is scheduled to statesman successful 2026. So portion discussions proceed connected however to determination up the timeline, we're taking a look astatine however a 12-team playoff would look contiguous based connected the already-determined exemplary released by the commissioners and presidents.

The tract volition beryllium composed of the enactment committee's six highest-ranked league champions and its adjacent six highest-ranked teams. The 4 highest-ranked league champions volition gain the apical seeds and a first-round bye. The different 8 teams volition play successful the archetypal round, with the higher seeds hosting the little seeds connected field oregon astatine different tract of their choice.

Here's what the playoff would look similar if the 12-team format were successful spot today:

Seeds with byes

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. USC

Remaining seeds
(conference champs successful bold)

5. Michigan
6. LSU
7. Alabama
8. Clemson
9. Oregon
10. Tennessee
11. Penn State
12. Tulane

First-round games

No. 12 Tulane astatine No. 5 Michigan
No. 11 Penn State astatine No. 6 LSU
No. 10 Tennessee astatine No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 Oregon astatine No. 8 Clemson

Quarterfinal games

No. 9 Oregon-No. 8 Clemson victor vs. No. 1 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee-No. 7 Alabama victor vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 11 Penn State-No. 6 LSU victor vs. No. 3 TCU
No. 12 Tulane-No. 5 Michigan victor vs. No. 4 USC

Top résumés

No. 1 Georgia

Record: 11-0 | SOS: 43| SOR: No. 2
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18

No. 2 Ohio State

Record: 11-0 | SOS: 54 | SOR: No. 3
Biggest win: Oct. 29 astatine Penn State, 44-31
Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship: No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24

No. 3 Michigan

Record: 11-0 | SOS: 74 | SOR: 4
Biggest win: Oct. 15 vs. Penn State, 41-17
Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal astatine the Orange Bowl No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11

No. 4 TCU

Record: 11-0 | SOS: 35 | SOR: 1
Biggest win: Nov. 12 astatine Texas, 17-10
Last playoff appearance: Never

No. 5 LSU

Record: 9-2 | SOS: 15 | SOR: 8
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama, 32-31
Last playoff appearance: 2020 CFP National Championship: No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25

No. 6 USC

Record: 10-1| SOS: 58| SOR: 9
Biggest win: Nov. 19 astatine UCLA, 48-45
Last playoff appearance: Never

No. 8 Clemson

Record: 10-1| SOS: 56| SOR: 6
Biggest win: Oct. 15 astatine Florida State, 34-28
Last playoff appearance: 2021 Playoff Semifinal astatine the Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State 49, No. 2 Clemson 28