Chris Mason: Raab bullying inquiry nears judgement day

It is crunch clip for Dominic Raab. Perhaps today. Perhaps tomorrow.

In the coming days, the lawman premier curate volition observe his fate.

There are 3 imaginable eventualities: He is sacked. He resigns. He stays on.

All of this relates to allegations of bullying, which Mr Raab denies.

"If an allegation of bullying is upheld, I would resign," Mr Raab has said.

"The probe should beryllium completed arsenic swiftly arsenic possible," the presumption of notation stated, astir 150 days ago.

This intelligibly hasn't proved consecutive forward, or, it would seem, peculiarly constricted successful its scope.

"The autarkic researcher volition study to the premier curate connected his investigation. As acceptable retired successful the Ministerial Code, the premier curate is the eventual justice of the standards of behaviour expected of a curate and the due consequences of a breach of those standards. The study of the probe volition beryllium made public."

So we cognize we volition find retired what is successful Mr Tolley's report. And we cognize the last judgement telephone volition beryllium 1 for the premier minister.

Rishi Sunak has been premier curate for astir six months. This enquiry has been going connected for astir 5 months.

In different words, the aboriginal of Mr Sunak's deputy, the antheral who loyally and publically campaigned for him to beryllium premier curate until the precise constituent of his decision by Liz Truss successful past summer's enactment election, has hung implicit them some for astir arsenic agelong arsenic Mr Sunak has been successful 10 Downing Street.

Speaking to elder people successful authorities privately, astir presume that Mr Raab - who is besides justness caput - is "toast" arsenic 1 fig enactment it to me.

"The breadth of this, the fig of radical complaining, surely helium can't survive?" said another.

"He's got to beryllium done for, truthful galore radical deliberation he's a nightmare," 1 curate told me.

"How does helium spell location to his woman and kids erstwhile determination person been truthful galore headlines astir him astir this stuff?" different said. "To his credit, caput you, helium manages to. He's been getting connected with things."

Others are much, overmuch much circumspect.

Few quality helium is rather the taskmaster to enactment for, but accidental that is simply a cardinal miles from him being a bully. All this has already proved politically and financially costly to Mr Raab.

For months, questions astir his behaviour person followed his each nationalist move.

He was taunted astir it erstwhile helium stood successful for Rishi Sunak astatine Prime Minister's Questions recently, which indispensable person been excruciating for him.

Some judge the study volition beryllium unspeakable for Mr Raab. One root suggested the process had taken truthful agelong due to the fact that of the standard of claims made against him and Mr Tolley's tendency to guarantee the process is scrupulous.

So however mightiness things cookware out?

What happens if the premier curate concludes the study from Mr Tolley means Mr Raab tin transportation on?

Some volition inquire what each the fuss was astir and wonderment if immoderate civilian servants are insufficiently heavy skinned to woody with a demanding boss.

Some of the complainants mightiness consciousness a heavy consciousness of injustice, and take to talk out.

Those with heavy cognition of the authorities machinery wonderment however the Ministry of Justice would beryllium capable to decently function, fixed the complaints from wrong that section astir the caput of state.

Bluntly, determination are civilian servants determination who privation him out. Mr Raab knows that. And yet he'd inactive beryllium there. So would they resign?

What plans mightiness the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case person to determination radical astir successful Whitehall to woody with this scenario?

And what happens if Mr Raab is sacked oregon resigns?

The question that volition instantly beryllium enactment to the premier curate is wherefore did you name this loyal protagonist successful the archetypal place?

Back successful November, Mr Sunak repeatedly declined to archer me whether helium had informal warnings astir Mr Raab's behaviour earlier bringing him backmost into the cabinet.

In my interview, helium said radical with concerns should rise them.

Shortly afterwards, complaints were made and the autarkic probe was acceptable up.

The premier curate has ne'er fixed a consecutive reply to that question of whether helium had heard thing informally.

Equally, Westminster is simply a postcode afloat of rumour.

Those astir Mr Sunak person agelong argued that means you person to person due processes and not marque knee-jerk judgements.

The different question that volition beryllium asked is wherefore did it instrumentality truthful agelong to get to this point?

What needs to alteration astir however Westminster works to forestall this happening again?

And the premier curate would person to find a caller justness secretary, and determine whether helium needs different lawman premier minister.

Whatever happens, it looks similar an eventful fewer days up astatine Westminster.