Climate change: Where does Rishi Sunak stand ahead of COP27?

Spin backmost 12 months to the COP26 clime alteration acme successful Glasgow and you couldn't determination without tripping implicit a satellite leader, a FTSE boss, adjacent the Archbishop of Canterbury.

The league was an tremendous matter wherever hours and hours of negotiations took spot astir however countries ample and small, northbound and south, could enactment unneurotic to effort to dilatory down clime alteration and negociate its impact.

There was different captious constituent past twelvemonth though: governmental energy.

There was nary uncertainty that the then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson took the contented seriously. There was a disposable tendency successful the authorities to enactment to negociate clime alteration and for the UK to take, and beryllium seen to take, a salient role.

There were immoderate grumbles successful the Conservative Party but the governmental propulsion from the apical to grasp the contented past twelvemonth was beardown and clear. The UK had to beryllium astatine the forefront of tackling clime change, and couldn't spend not to.

The dynamics of COP are genuinely international, and arsenic our clime exertion Justin Rowlatt notes here, this week's acme successful the Egyptian Red Sea edifice of Sharm El-Sheikh is apt to spot the world's poorer countries pitted against the affluent nations who they consciousness person backtracked connected the fiscal commitments made successful Glasgow.

But arsenic leaders interaction down this play for COP27, is the UK's committedness inactive arsenic strong?

First off, the elemental optics of the past fewer weeks suggest not. There was a straightforward statement against Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's attendance astatine COP. He's lone conscionable moved into No 10 and the system is successful atrocious shape. Summits are, putting it politely, not ever a bully usage of important people's time.

There was besides a bully lawsuit for him to spell - to amusement idiosyncratic committedness and involvement successful the subject, and of people to instrumentality the accidental to hitch shoulders with different satellite leaders.

But changing his caput has sent a antithetic message. One clime adept said: "The Sunak flip-flop doesn't show the level of enactment Johnson had."

If you hide the fuss astir Mr Sunak's alteration of heart, determination are signs that clime alteration has moved down the docket since past year.

COP26 main Alok Sharma was shunted retired of the furniture successful the past fewer weeks which sent the signal, intentional oregon not, that the caller medication is little acrophobic astir the issue.

During her little clip successful office, Liz Truss approved 130 caller lipid and state licences. And the UK hasn't yet provided each the currency to assistance the countries hardest deed by clime alteration that it promised past year.

That doesn't mean the UK has abandoned each of its efforts, but the governmental urgency has noticeably faded. One well-informed clime root says "there is simply a tenable question astir whether we truly person our clime credentials successful the close place".

The demands of short-term authorities often shove the tendency to lick semipermanent problems down the list. As 1 COP insider said: "Ukraine and superior clime catastrophes this twelvemonth person made cleanable vigor and enactment nary little important, but home worries astir the system and winning elections prevail."

But determination is simply a antithetic question being asked too: what is the caller premier minister's cognition to clime change? How overmuch does helium truly care?

In the adjacent mates of days, present helium is going to COP, determination volition beryllium lukewarm and determined words, possibly a caller committedness oregon two.

Mr Sunak said a fewer days agone "there is nary semipermanent prosperity without enactment connected clime change". But determination are doubts astir his stance.

One source, usually acquainted with the government's plans and instincts connected the issue, says "there is simply a large question astir what helium truly thinks".

Another clime insider worries "it doesn't consciousness similar he's acting retired of condemnation and belief" portion 1 manufacture root says "he's ne'er been a naysayer but helium has ne'er been a fan" - adding that during his clip successful the Treasury "he was a large sceptic astir the cost".

The costs are enormous, of course. A Freedom of Information petition for our programme shows conscionable however large the terms tag would beryllium adjacent for making nationalist buildings greenish - an tremendous £25-30bn astatine a clip erstwhile currency is short.

When radical are disquieted astir keeping the lights on, it's not astonishing that immoderate voters besides mightiness consciousness little fussy astir wherever their powerfulness comes from.

But Rishi Sunak's governmental opponents sniff an opportunity, with Labour believing they tin marque the lawsuit for a faster determination to greenish energy.

With recession approaching they are processing plans to spell overmuch further and faster with UK-generated renewables.

There are important questions astir however realistic their plans truly are. But it's notable that they spot governmental vantage successful putting those ideas beforehand and centre.

One Labour root said Mr Sunak's "will he, won't he" attendance astatine COP "sent a connection circular the satellite with his hokey-cokey connected attending COP that the UK is retired of the clime enactment business… the satellite desperately needs clime leaders - but it's not going to travel from Rishi Sunak".

More diplomatically, Claire O'Neill - the erstwhile MP and vigor curate who was partially liable for the UK becoming the COP president past twelvemonth - told maine the UK is "playing defence, not offence".

As helium jets disconnected to Egypt, Mr Sunak's attack to clime alteration is apt to travel nether attack.