College football betting cheat sheet: UCLA-Oregon equals points galore

1 year ago 30

7:00 AM ET

  • Doug KezirianESPN Sports Betting Insider

    Close

    • ESPN Sports Betting Analyst
    • Host of Daily Wager
    • Behind The Bets podcast host

We were spoiled past week with six ranked matchups successful seemingly the champion assemblage shot slate successful rather immoderate time. Back to the grind we go, though Chip Kelly's instrumentality to Eugene successful a conflict of top-10 schools does connection plentifulness of intrigue.

No. 9 UCLA enters this showdown with No. 10 Oregon (-6) undefeated, contempt being an underdog successful back-to-back games. Normally, I'd question however overmuch a squad has near successful the vessel facing its 3rd consecutive ranked opponent, but the Bruins are coming disconnected a bye. I person much interest that those erstwhile tests (Washington and Utah) occurred astatine home, portion this is UCLA's archetypal roadworthy crippled of the full season. Autzen Stadium volition beryllium electric.

Sharp wealth connected Oregon aboriginal successful the week moved this enactment up a half-point. My main wager is connected the implicit 70.5. It's a immense number, but determination are a batch of reasons for that. First off, some defenses are reasonably average, ranking 50th oregon worse successful antiaircraft efficiency. The Ducks person faced 3 respectable offenses. Georgia and Washington State lit them up, and the BYU show is simply a spot misleading. The Cougars were forced to spell for it connected 4th down a fewer times but each successful all, it was a coagulated showing by Oregon's defense.

Meanwhile, these offenses are elite. Each fertile successful the apical 15 successful efficiency, points per crippled and yards per game. On apical of that, if you dive deeper, Oregon's numbers could beryllium adjacent much staggering, if not for the quality of blowouts. In 4 of their six games, Oregon took it casual successful the 4th fourth by resting starters, including backmost Bo Nix. In a crippled that's expected to beryllium competitive, each indications would beryllium that Oregon's discourtesy tin people a ton done 4 afloat quarters.

UCLA's wins implicit Washington and Utah each featured astatine slightest 72 points. The Bruins person demonstrated an quality to people astatine a precocious complaint against a prime opponent, and that is apt needed connected Saturday. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has steadily improved each play and this twelvemonth helium has 15 touchdowns and conscionable 2 interceptions. Avoiding turnovers is however to currency this precocious of an implicit due to the fact that some offenses volition inevitably person plentifulness of chunk plays with tempo.


Ranked Matchups

Boston College Eagles astatine No. 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-20.5)

The Demon Deacons are softly having a beardown play and stay live for an ACC title. They lone person 1 loss, and that was a six-point decision to Clemson. This twelvemonth started disconnected with uncertainty, but prima backmost Sam Hartman joined the squad and the discourtesy is inactive potent. It ranks 20th successful violative ratio and ninth successful yards per walk attempt. Wake should beryllium capable to carve up a Boston College defence that has deteriorated implicit the years, ranking 104th this play successful efficiency. The Eagles should springiness up a ton of points and not beryllium capable to lucifer Wake's scoring, owed to BC's 104th ranking successful violative efficiency. BC has played 2 roadworthy games and got blown retired successful both. This should beryllium a third.

Pick: Wake Forest -20.5

No. 7 Ole Miss astatine LSU (-1)

It's not often you seen an unranked squad favored implicit an undefeated top-10 school, peculiarly an SEC one, but present we are. And honestly, it makes sense. The Tigers got undressed by Tennessee a mates weeks agone but we present tin admit the Vols adjacent more. LSU is simply a coagulated shot squad and volition beryllium acceptable to stone astatine Death Valley. On apical of that, Ole Miss truly lone has 1 awesome triumph (Kentucky astatine home) and this squad feels ripe for a loss. The Tigers person plentifulness of endowment successful the secondary to grip Lane Kiffin's aerial onslaught and let's anticipation QB Jayden Daniels tin duplicate past week's awesome performance.

Favorite Plays

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors astatine Colorado State Rams (-5)

There is not overmuch affirmative to accidental astir either team. They person combined for 3 wins, and this crippled should beryllium a pugnacious watch. However, we don't person to ticker it; we conscionable request a winner, and I deliberation we person 1 with the under. Colorado State is the lone FBS squad to spell nether successful each crippled this season. Offensively, the Rams fertile dormant past successful ratio retired of 131 schools. Meanwhile, Hawai'i has been incapable to uncover prime backmost play. My lone interest is Hawai'i's inability to halt the run, and the Rams volition apt effort to predominate this crippled connected the ground. My anticipation is the Rainbow Warriors are capable to marque immoderate tackles and support this crippled comparatively debased scoring.

Pick: Under 46.5

Colorado astatine Oregon State (-23.5, 48.5)

The Buffs are riding precocious aft scoring their archetypal triumph this play against Stanford. But let's not commencement pretending they person resolved their violative woes. They fertile 125th successful ratio and portion Oregon State sits 40th, they are averaging conscionable nether 23 points the past 3 games since backup QB Ben Gulbranson took over. The Beavers privation to thin connected their defence and grind retired a win. In presumption of seconds betwixt plays, they person the eighth-slowest complaint successful FBS. This operation is simply a look for an under.

Pick: nether 48.5

Read Entire Article