9:00 PM ET
ESPN staff
GRAPEVINE, Texas -- The College Football Playoff enactment committee rewarded undefeated Tennessee with the apical spot successful its archetypal rankings of the 2022 season, marking the archetypal clip successful schoolhouse past the Vols entered the apical four.
The Vols were followed by No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Clemson.
Now that the archetypal of six rankings that volition find this year's four-team playoff person been released let's instrumentality a look astatine immoderate wide takeaways, who should beryllium mad, who would triumph if these 4 teams made it and however a 12-team bracket would look.
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Anger Index | Picks | 12-team bracket
Georgia needs to triumph much than the Vols connected Saturday
Tennessee is astatine the apical of the assemblage shot world.
It has the champion résumé successful the country, and the champion triumph -- against Alabama. If it loses to Georgia connected Saturday, it's imaginable the Vols inactive decorativeness the play 11-1 with a triumph against the SEC champions, should Alabama tally the table.
If Tennessee wins connected Saturday, it could suffer to Alabama successful the SEC title crippled and inactive decorativeness successful the apical four, having divided with the Tide and finished arsenic the league's runner-up. Georgia appears to person little borderline for error, adjacent astatine No. 3. (Though the No. 3 spot is the unofficial CFP jinx, arsenic lone 1 squad ranked No. 3 successful the archetypal CFP rankings -- Clemson successful 2020 -- has made the playoff.)
If Georgia loses connected Saturday and doesn't triumph the East, it volition request to anticipation desperately that it tin decorativeness successful the apical 4 without winning its division. Right now, it's clinging to the lopsided season-opening triumph against Oregon to boost its résumé. Without that, Georgia's opponents are presently 22-26, with the champion triumph against three-loss South Carolina. Without a triumph against Tennessee, Georgia would request to anticipation wins against remaining opponents Mississippi State, Kentucky and Georgia Tech tin assistance compensate for nary part title. None of those teams are presently successful the CFP apical 25.
Michigan's nonconference docket is holding it back
Michigan needs to bushed Ohio State.
With Tennessee and Georgia playing each different connected Saturday, there's evidently going to beryllium immoderate country successful the apical 4 if Georgia loses and falls out, but if Georgia wins, you could inactive beryllium looking astatine 2 SEC teams successful the apical four. That's not perfect for a Michigan squad sitting connected the bubble down an undefeated Clemson squad rolling towards an ACC title.
Without a triumph against the Buckeyes, it's going to beryllium hard for the committee to warrant moving the Wolverines up. Their nonconference docket (Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn) was abysmal, and close present their lone triumph against a CFP apical 25 teams is No. 15 Penn State (though they get a changeable astatine No. 16 Illinois this month). The aforesaid tin beryllium said for Ohio State arsenic acold arsenic the Buckeyes' champion win, but intelligibly the committee likes what it sees connected movie from Ohio State much than Michigan.
Pac-12 isn't done yet
The Pac-12 hasn't had a squad scope the CFP since Washington successful 2016, but with No. 8 Oregon and No. 9 USC some ranked successful the apical 10, it's imaginable the league tin drawback its drought.
Considering Tennessee and Georgia inactive person to play each other, and Michigan and Ohio State volition meet, determination volition beryllium question supra them. It's besides imaginable Alabama and Clemson suffer betwixt present and Selection Day, arsenic Alabama has 2 pugnacious roadworthy trips astatine LSU and Ole Miss looming, and Clemson is astatine Notre Dame connected Saturday and inactive has to look rival South Carolina earlier the ACC title game.
The Pac-12 would beryllium helped if TCU loses, which is imaginable due to the fact that the Frogs person to triumph connected the roadworthy astatine some Baylor and No. 24 Texas. Oregon has immoderate large opportunities looming to impressment the enactment committee, which ranked Utah No. 14 and Oregon State No. 23, opponents the Ducks inactive person to look during the regular season. It's besides imaginable that USC and Oregon look each different successful the league title game, astir guaranteeing them some different ranked opponent. Oregon has to flooded its atrocious nonaccomplishment against Georgia, though. The 49-3 decision would beryllium by acold the largest nonaccomplishment for a squad making the CFP.
No. 12 UCLA isn't retired of the premix with 1 loss, either. In 2014, Ohio State was No. 16 successful the CFP's archetypal ranking -- and it went connected to triumph the nationalist title. No squad has started retired little than that.
TCU and the Big 12 should beryllium concerned
The undefeated Frogs are down one-loss Alabama. And they've arguably got a amended résumé than the Tide. That seems to mean TCU needs to decorativeness arsenic an undefeated league champion successful bid to person a shot. Their champion wins are against No. 13 Kansas State, and No. 18 Oklahoma State. -- Heather Dinich
Anger Index
4:20
ESPN's assemblage shot unit discusses the rankings uncover for the Top 6 of the College Football Playoff.
It's outrage play successful assemblage football, and with Tuesday's merchandise of the archetypal College Football Playoff rankings of the season, there's plentifulness of choler to spell around.
Here's Week 10's College Football Playoff Anger Index.
1. TCU Horned Frogs (8-0), ranked seventh: Yes, we cognize the argument. TCU conscionable hasn't been dominant. It's a lawsuit that mightiness clasp h2o if dominance was the criteria for the teams conscionable up of Horned Frogs.
TCU has had 8 second-half drives this play erstwhile trailing. That's really 1 less than No. 4 Clemson.
TCU has 3 wins by 7 points oregon less, but the squad 1 spot up -- Alabama -- has 2 and a loss.
TCU hasn't proven capable to flooded immoderate of the evident drawbacks. But hey, Michigan's seven-point triumph implicit Maryland -- the Wolverines' second-best hostile this twelvemonth -- must've truly impressed the committee.
The folks successful the committee country assertion to attraction lone astir résumé -- who person you beaten? -- and don't look up oregon see past seasons. So however past to marque heads oregon tails of TCU's No. 7 placement?
The Horned Frogs person 4 wins implicit teams that were ranked. That's the aforesaid arsenic Michigan, Georgia and Alabama combined.
The Horned Frogs person 4 roadworthy wins, treble the tally for Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan oregon Alabama.
The Horned Frogs person tally 20 violative plays successful the 4th fourth erstwhile trailing. That's conscionable 3 much than Georgia, and they each came against amended absorption than Missouri.
The Horned Frogs are No. 3 successful ESPN's spot of record, which measures the likelihood an mean top-25 squad would person the aforesaid grounds vs. the aforesaid schedule. That's up of No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Michigan.
But there's a bigger statement present connected however docket trouble should beryllium considered. Yes, Tennessee and Georgia person marquee wins, and there's a tenable accidental TCU would've mislaid had it played Oregon oregon Alabama. But is it tougher to play a docket that includes 1 incredibly hard hostile and a clump of cupcakes (as Georgia has) oregon to spell a afloat period playing decent (if not elite) top-25 teams (as TCU has)?
The statement for TCU is beardown -- stronger, too, due to the fact that the committee seemed to bespeak a content successful the prime of the Big 12 with the remainder of its rankings (Kansas State and Texas fared amended successful the CFP ranking than successful the polls). So it's unfortunate that assurance wasn't extended to the Horned Frogs. Because portion the opening rankings don't often mean overmuch successful the large picture, they bash acceptable the stage. And arsenic it stands, TCU has done arsenic overmuch arsenic anyone prevention Tennessee, and it's inactive not bully capable to eclipse adjacent a one-loss Alabama.
For Tennessee, Georgia, Michigan, Alabama and Ohio State, the play volition find who ends up successful the apical 4 -- starting with this week's games for those SEC schools. But for TCU, these rankings suggest it's not conscionable astir winning. The Horned Frogs request to triumph bigger, triumph amended and inactive anticipation the teams ranked higher volition falter capable to person the committee to alteration its perceptions.
2. UCLA Bruins (7-1), ranked 12th: How are the Bruins down USC? The Trojans person played 2 decent teams: Utah and Oregon State. They astir mislaid to the Beavers and they did suffer to the Utes. But UCLA? The Bruins' lone nonaccomplishment came to a top-10 foe (Oregon) and they bushed Utah.
3. Tulane (7-1), ranked 19th: The bully quality is Tulane is the top-ranked Group of Five team. The atrocious quality is the Green Wave are ranked six spots down Kansas State, which has 2 losses, including 1 to... Tulane!
4. Michigan (8-0), ranked fifth: The Wolverines' brutal non-conference docket is their undoing. It's absorbing this comes aft canceling a non-conference bid with UCLA, truthful Jim Harbaugh tin present walk NC State's Dave Doeren connected the "we're truly aggravated astir a canceled crippled against the Bruins" powerfulness rankings.
5. Florida State (5-3), unranked: How did Texas get ranked astatine 5-3 but Florida State did not? The Longhorns mislaid 3 adjacent games -- to Alabama, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. So, too, person the Seminoles -- to 3 ranked teams successful Clemson, Wake Forest and NC State. But portion Texas' champion triumph is against an average-at-best Oklahoma, FSU has a triumph implicit No. 10 LSU. Is a one-point nonaccomplishment to Alabama amended than a one-point triumph implicit LSU? -- David Hale
Picking the games
Caesars Sportsbook updated its nationalist title likelihood Tuesday and No. 1 Tennessee is present +1000 to triumph the rubric aft starting the play astatine +10000. Ohio Sate is the betting favourite astatine +190, followed by Georgia (+200) and Alabama (+375). Here's however ESPN's writers spot the semifinals going nether the existent ranking.
Andrea Adelson: 1. Tennessee 35, Clemson 31; No. 3 Georgia 30, Ohio State 27
Blake Baumgartner: Tennessee 38, Clemson 20; Ohio State 38, Georgia 35
Kyle Bonagura: Tennessee 38, Clemson 17; Georgia 35, Ohio State 31
Bill Connelly: Tennessee 48, Clemson 24; Georgia 28, Ohio State 27
Heather Dinich: Tennessee 42, Clemson 21; Ohio State 24, Georgia 21
Chris Low: Tennessee 42, 4. Clemson 21; Ohio State 30, Georgia 27
Harry Lyles Jr: Tennessee 45, Clemson 27; Ohio State 27, Georgia 31
Ryan McGee: Tennessee 48, Clemson 24; Ohio State 30, Georgia 28
Adam Rittenberg: Tennessee 30, Clemson 27; Ohio State 34, Georgia 30
Alex Scarborough: Tennessee 45, Clemson 24; Georgia 35, Ohio State 34
Paolo Uggetti: Tennessee 41, Clemson 28; Georgia 34, Ohio State 37
Tom VanHaaren: Tennessee 31, Clemson 20; Georgia 31, Ohio State 38
Dave Wilson: Tennessee 42, Clemson 27; Georgia 33, Ohio State 29
How a 12-team playoff would look
Everyone with the powerfulness to grow the College Football Playoff wants the tract to turn to 12 teams successful clip for the 2024 season.
But presently enlargement is scheduled to statesman successful 2026, truthful portion discussions proceed connected however to determination up the timeline, we're taking a look astatine however a 12-team playoff would look contiguous based connected the already-determined exemplary released by the commissioners and presidents.
The tract volition beryllium comprised of the enactment committee's six highest-ranked league champions and their adjacent six highest-ranked teams. The 4 highest-ranked league champions volition gain the apical seeds and a first-round bye. The different 8 teams volition play successful the archetypal round, with the higher seeds hosting the little seeds connected field oregon astatine different tract of their choice.
Here's what the playoff would look similar if the 12-team format were successful spot today:
Seeds with byes
1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. TCU
Remaining seeds
(conference champs successful bold)
5. Georgia
6. Michigan
7. Alabama
8. Oregon
9. USC
10. LSU
11. Ole Miss
12. Tulane
First-round games
No. 12 Tulane astatine No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Ole Miss astatine No. 6 Michigan
No. 10 LSU astatine No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 USC astatine No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
No. 9 USC/No. 8 Oregon victor vs. No. 1 Tennessee
No. 10 LSU/No. 7 Alabama victor vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 11 Ole Miss/No. 6 Michigan victor vs. No. 3 Clemson
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Georgia victor vs. No. 4 TCU
-- Dinich
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