The equilibrium of powerfulness successful the House presently stands astatine 211 Republicans and 199 Democrats — but, functionally, it’s much intimately divided. The database of uncalled races includes 2 California contests wherever some general-election candidates are Democrats. And allocating the twelve races wherever 1 enactment is importantly favored — but wherever The AP hasn’t made a telephone — adds 8 seats to the Democratic Party’s tally, and 4 races to Republicans’.
That would enactment Republicans astatine 215 seats, conscionable 3 seats distant from the majority, portion Democrats would beryllium 9 seats short. But with 11 seats successful uncertainty — six with Republicans leading, and 5 wherever Democrats are up — some parties inactive person a shot, though the GOP is inactive favored.
Here is simply a district-by-district breakdown of the uncalled races arsenic of Saturday afternoon, and what could hap next:
UP-FOR-GRAB RACES — 11 TOTAL, WITH GOP LEADING 6-5
Arizona-01 (Pre-Nov. 8 POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican): GOP Rep. David Schweikert is trailing Democrat Jevin Hodge by 4,000 votes. Maricopa County, which includes the full district, is acceptable to merchandise much votes aboriginal Saturday, which could assistance Schweikert fixed the state’s inclination toward a “red shift” aboriginal successful the count.
Arizona-06 (Lean Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani holds lone a constrictive pb implicit Democrat Kirsten Engel — astir 2,900 votes — successful a contention that has narrowed importantly since Election Day. It’s not wide whether the remaining votes successful Pima County (Tucson) volition assistance Engel adjacent the spread completely.
California-13 (Lean Republican): This 1 looks similar a nail-biter: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes arsenic of Saturday afternoon, with lone 61 percent of the ballots tallied, according to The Associated Press.
California-22 (Toss Up): Is it déjà vu for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was truthful acold up of his Democratic hostile connected predetermination nighttime successful 2018 that The AP declared him the victor — lone to retract the telephone erstwhile Valadao fell down weeks later. This time, Valadao (who yet returned to Congress aft winning successful 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down from 8 points connected Tuesday night.
California-41 (Lean Republican): GOP Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by astir 2,100 votes successful the Inland Empire, but it’s not wide however the late-counted ballots volition break.
California-47 (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 2 percent points, arsenic late-arriving ballots successful Orange County person helped widen what was an highly constrictive pb connected Election Day.
California-49 (Toss Up): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has opened up a 4-point pb implicit Republican Brian Maryott.
Colorado-03 (Likely Republican): GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is up by astir 1,100 votes implicit Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch needs to devour into Boebert’s vantage successful the last ballots to person a changeable to surpass her successful the apt recount, which volition hap if the 2 candidates decorativeness wrong fractional a percent constituent of each different (Boebert presently leads by 0.4 points).
New York-22 (Toss Up): Republican Brandon Williams is astir 4,000 votes up of Democrat Francis Conole, who is hoping that still-to-be-counted absentee ballots successful Syracuse are capable to propulsion him implicit the top.
Oregon-06 (Toss Up): Democrat Andrea Salinas is 4,000 votes up of Republican Mike Erickson, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.
Washington-03 (Lean Republican): Joe Kent, the Donald Trump-endorsed campaigner who knocked retired GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler successful the top-two superior backmost successful August, is astatine hazard of losing the spot for Republicans. Kent trails Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by astir 5,000 votes, but conscionable 70 percent of the ballots are counted.
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